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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
On 3/18/2022 at 3:45 PM, boilermaker75 said:

 

Replaced my expiring covered calls with 40-strike April 14 expiration calls at $1.10 per share.

 

Called out, so ended up being a successful risk arbitrage play after all.

Posted

Trimmed BRK.B, FRFHF, USAP, ATCO, AAPL.  Exited DIS, BAM, BABA. all very small  positions.  Mainly tax matching and reducing the risk of sleep walking into a potential margin call if this really gets a head of steam up. We shall see.  I can’t think of a better inflation pass thru entity than Berkshire but the market is thinking the same and has bid it accordingly, as much as I hate to say it I don’t want to get caught out on a mortality trade.   The 50-60% drawdown test is all too real.

Posted
9 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Trimmed BRK.B, FRFHF, USAP, ATCO, AAPL.  Exited DIS, BAM, BABA. all very small  positions.  Mainly tax matching and reducing the risk of sleep walking into a potential margin call if this really gets a head of steam up. We shall see.  I can’t think of a better inflation pass thru entity than Berkshire but the market is thinking the same and has bid it accordingly, as much as I hate to say it I don’t want to get caught out on a mortality trade.   The 50-60% drawdown test is all too real.

Do you think BRK is a good inflation hedge? 

 

Pros: railway and some other businesses (eg See's) have pricing power 

 

Cons: little fixed rate debt to get less valuable. Utility cash flows are a fixed % return on capex, but paid in depreciated dollars. The longer duration insurance float is a risk - they took premiums upfront in past year dollars and will pay the claims at higher inflated prices.

Posted
44 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

Do you think BRK is a good inflation hedge? 

 

Pros: railway and some other businesses (eg See's) have pricing power 

 

Cons: little fixed rate debt to get less valuable. Utility cash flows are a fixed % return on capex, but paid in depreciated dollars. The longer duration insurance float is a risk - they took premiums upfront in past year dollars and will pay the claims at higher inflated prices.

Higher interest rate hurt private equity’s ability to buy companies and thus benefit Brk’s ability to get more deals done

Posted (edited)

@sleepydragon Private equity has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of low interest rates and high asset valuation. These business could be in for hard times, if valuations compress and the cost of debt goes up substantially.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted

Trimmed some HHC.  I love the assets, but they keep switching out management and saying things are getting better, but I don't see it. Investing $50 million in a restaurant chain?  Really?  How about buying back more stock or a dividend instead? I'd love to sell all and add the whole position to my JOE holdings, but HHC is cheaper than I'd like to sell at and JOE is higher than I'd like to buy at.  First world problems? 🤔

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Cut my Recipe position in half. It was a ST trade; up @5%; time to sell some. Also selling other smaller position for quick mid single digit gains. 
 

I expect lots of volatility in the coming months. As long as inflation runs hot and the Fed continues to hike rates. QT begins next week 🙂

 

I agree there is lots of opportunity in the stock market today. But my main investment strategy continues to be capital preservation. Until the Fed reverses course. Which will ONLY happen when financial conditions have tightened sufficiently; and we CLEARLY are not ‘there’ yet. 

Edited by Viking
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