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Saluki

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  1. FFH bought back a small amount during the great plunge during the pandemic when Intrepid was trading below $1 a share. The did a reverse stock split (10:1) and it's tripled off the low. Looks like it's firing on all cylinders again: https://intrepidpotashinc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intrepid-announces-first-quarter-2021-results
  2. The conference call was wonderful, but there was some unintentional comedy gold. Did you guys catch the guy who said that Prem is not doing deep analysis in these holdings anymore, and that he doesn't understand tech, and that he should give up the reigns and that people on the board probably think the same thing about him but are too polite to say it to him...because they are Canadians. Prem's response reminded me of the Big Lebowski "well, that's just, like, an opinion, man." I've been a shareholder for a few years and have been down about 50% at some points so I'm glad to see it firing on all cylinders again with Prem and company focused solely on the businesses instead of making huge bets on calling market tops.
  3. I think "the market" is overpriced but that doesn't mean everything is. Everything oil related is dirt cheap right now and some stuff that I consider pretty safe (KMI, PSX, PBF) I have added to in recent days. Oil and product tankers are super cheap too now but if I kept buying my position would take me past my "good night's sleep" point. I'm trying to walk out of the burning building with the most valuable stuff that I can carry before the whole thing comes down.
  4. Added a little ATEX on the dip and bought a little more KMI and SRG preferreds in my IRA account (the price on SRG.PA is ~20% higher than my other fills, but since it's a tax free account, I think the dividend math works out about the same)
  5. In Fortune's Formula they mention some earlier iteration of the card counting system where (If I recall), you only counted the face cards. I forget why they abandoned it in favor of the counting method. Maybe it worked, but the counting system works better when you have a team approach? I still have the book somewhere but am not interested enough to look it up since I don't gamble.
  6. Added a little more ATEX. started new positions in PSX and MPC
  7. Added a little to STNG and KMI. Started small positions in MU and ATEX while I do more research.
  8. These are the two fangs I own. Here are my thoughts for what it's worth. FB: Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp are all companies that benefit from network effects, which are hard to disrupt when they get big enough (like now). It's like why everyone hated Microsoft but everyone already used it, so everyone else had to use it. Assume it's better to drive on the left side of the road, how do you get everyone to do it unless everyone is already doing it? FB can sell ads at a premium because they know so much about you and unlike a traditional ad spend, the ads (like on Google) are auction driven so the ad platform keeps more of the value created. It's trading at not a lot more than the P/E of the market for a company that has way better prospects than the rest of the market. GooG: Google and YouTube are the number 1 and 2 search engines in the world. 15% of all internet traffic is YouTube. If you sell ads on the best search engines, you are getting an override on the growth of internet traffic and e-commerce. Also, most of the moonshots are not that impressive but self-driving is. Everyone looooves tesla because of the self driving potential, but based on two important metrics (miles driven, and avg miles driven before you need to grab the streering wheel) GM is number two and number one is....Google. And again, the P/E is not outrageous compared to the market I think Amzn and Netflix are great products, just could never get comfortable with the price. Apple: I looked at it before Buffett and (wrongly) concluded that it was a bad idea because (at the time) 65% of the revenue was from iphones and I'm old enough to remember when everyone had a motorola razr, and then a blackberry, and then a nokia. I will say that (last time I checked) I was impressed with their cash situation. They move product so quickly and get paid so fast, but pay others so slow, that the metric you use for that (i forget what it's called) was negative 40 days. I've never seen that before. But...I didn't buy it. I'm chickensh1t.
  9. Well, as Bernard Baruch said "no one ever lost money taking a profit." I remember once buying calls on Lear Corp and there was some positive news the next day. I was up over 40% in ONE DAY! Rather than sell, I held on and they eventually expired worthless. I'd rather have Bernard Baruch's problems than Gil Gunderson's any day. Gil Gunderson from the Simpsons:
  10. been picking up a little kinder morgan (KMI) whenever it dips below 15. Still a small position, but I think I'll have some time to build on it as I sell off other things i own that get fully priced.
  11. This is a fun read by the same author of Barbarians at the Gate. Given the popularity of Barbarians, I'm surprised almost no one I know has read it. I read it a few years ago when I was learning as much as possible about oil. This book is about the richest four oil families in Texas. By following the history of these trashy weirdos you'll learn why there is no land zoning in houston, how the Oilers and Cowboys football teams ended up in Texas and why batsh1t religious conservative politicians are so well funded. You'll also see a lot of corruption. Not to give away much of the book, but one person in the book literally shot his ex wife in front of witnesses and got away with it. If you want a good historical book about oil, Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is a book for you. If you want something that feels like Michael Lewis (or Maury Povich) had a hand in writing, this is one you'll like.
  12. Saluki

    Reichmanns

    I'd be very interested in reading it after you give your review. Although I read voraciously, I have an OCD thing about finishing books that I start, but at 800+ pages I want to make sure it's worth the time :)
  13. Added a little SRG (close to the price Buffett bought at during the SHLD spinoff, but the company looks much better than it did 3 years ago), and a little FB and BRK and STNG. Nothing to write home about but just deployed the rest of my cash (about 1%).
  14. Lots of good stuff streaming nowadays, but I'm currently very into a show that was recommended to me by a friend who used to work at NASA: The Expanse. (snap shot: The Earth is run by the U.N., Mars is independent and Militarized and their is was brewing over control of the settlements in the outer asteroid belt). It's very dark, like Battlestar Galactica (also a favorite).
  15. I own some STNG too, it's a decent position along with a small basket of of other shipping stocks based on the IMO2020 thesis. My pick is my 3rd biggest position: SSW. I started buy in the 6s and gained more confidence in it after meeting sokol at the fairfax meeting a couple of years ago. I think every company with newer ships will win big this year because of the new fuel requirements. The price discrepancy should create some major price spikes the way they did when double hull ships replaced single hull ships, or the way steam ships were bankrupted by internal combustion ships in the 1980s (only LNG ships, i believe, still use steam engines...long story). SSW should benefit from that tailwind, the new capital structure with the revolving credit, the investment from fairfax, and opportunistic investments in energy that SSW is looking at.
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