lnofeisone

I am sharing this sauna with you. I'll bring the beers. I bought a 1% position. I also bought some JOE and DPZ.

I saw MU at 1200 and was thinking of shorting it but TSLA got me scarred and scared.

I added to bntx and funding it by selling lqda puts.

I looked at MAT today. Do you have a theory or any suggestions where to get started?

Absent LQDA I'm up 2%. CPNG is a big detractor for me as it was about 15% of my portfolio. I'm not excited about my portfolio but I go to sleep knowing it's probably sound.

This probably belongs in the Olin thread but here is the summary of my thinking. The merger is going to get you a poor man's OxyChem at much lower prices. This is similar to RTO/ROL dynamic. At some point, RTO was just too cheap. I think this is the dynamic with Olin now. It's just too cheap. A little longer version: Olin sells raw chlorine and caustic soda on the markets so they are exposed to the swings of the raw material markte. OxyChem has a chain all the way down to PVCs where they eat up a lot of their own chlorine so they aren't as exposed to chlorine cycle and depend more on PVC which is a lot more measured. On the cost side, OxyChem is tighter integrated in the US Gulf Coast so they get access to cheap NG and oil (cheaper than Olin anyway). In short, OxyChem has better product margins, and lower input cost which is how you get better margins for OxyChem. Huntsman merger will help Olin because it will make it poor man's OxyChem. 1) It will take away the Chlorine volatility. Huntman has a huge presence in methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and that eats A LOT of chlorine...which Olin has a lot of. 2) Olin will now be supplying its own raw materials to its own end products (Huntsman makes things for the likes of BMW, GE, etc.) so their margins should improve considerably. I think the $400M they want to synergize is very optimistic. I'm keeping my number at $125M (the value of NOL that will get utilized). So if you put it all together and assign it EV/EBITDA of 7, you get roughly $40/share or a double from here.

Adding to BN, Fairfax, and bought a restarter in OLN. I had OLN at $40 that I was able to sell at break-even through help of some option plays. It's now at $20, chlor alkali markets are stabilizing, and they are merging with an end user of their raw materials. Worth another shot.

Our therapist is a play-based therapist. She started with the toys our son liked and slowly branched out into other toys/physical activities with a different set of vocabulary/actions. One thing to note is that our son still has difficulty communicating in new environments. We are working through it but it comes with the territory.

Sending you encouragement, @Sweet! You’ve got this, and getting professional assessments is a wonderful, proactive step. Every child truly blooms on their own timeline. My son will be 5 soon, and he didn't start speaking until he was 4, with his first full sentence coming around 4.5. Interestingly, his 2-year-old little sister actually beat him to her first sentence! On top of that, he is one of those amazing kids who can focus on Legos or Magna-Tiles for hours. Because of that unique mix, we naturally wondered about autism. We reached out to several specialists, and the wonderful news was that he was simply a late bloomer with a significant speech delay. It took a little patience to find the right fit, but after two years of speech therapy with a therapist he absolutely bonded with, he is thriving and catching up so fast! While he’s still working hard to bridge the gap with his Pre-K peers, his vocabulary is absolutely mushrooming right now. Hang in there! Trust your instincts, lean on the specialists, and celebrate every little victory along the way. You’re doing an amazing job!

I also think they are swaps. They walk like swaps and quack like swaps. I haven't traded them but have looked at them and I think they are incredibly dangerous for retail investor. If you own calls and the underlying drops like a rock, you lose the value of the call. If you own one of these perps, you might find yourself completely wiped out. Never mind the funding rate, which can eat away at the gains.

I agree. I think Israel can put up a good fight but it lacks the necessary strenght to do anything in Iran and it will 100% become a pariah state. Israel's best capability here is to do what Iran does and that is engage in assymetric warfare.

Again, I have to correct your representation of facts. It's true, the billboards are in Lebanon but they are in a very specific part of Lebanon. They are in southern suburb of Beirut - Dahiyeh - which is a Hezbollah stronghold. And what do they show? They show an Iranian leader Iran couldn't protect, and another leader currently in hiding. You are also wetted to Hezb and not Lebanon. This is what Lebanon stands for doing https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1506737/lebanon-submits-official-complaint-against-iran-to-unsc-for-first-time.html Lebanon as a country doesn't stand for Hezb or Iran. The majority detests both. Iranians might be principled individuals but the regime is not. The regime understands that they caught the US flat-footed unless the US is really willing to escalate adn the Iranian regime is trying to milk it for all it can. They are trying to get the most out of the US adn also show their proxies that they will stand by them...all this after Israel embarrassed Iran on the international stage with the elmination of Ali Khamenei, Nassralah, countless others. Let us not forget Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated in Tehran. Also, what partial withdrawal? Israel is operating in Southern Lebanon and just captured a massive Hezb tunnel that included a drone factory. You've made your anti-Israel stance very clear. Fascinting how you are actually on the side of pro-terror organizations and a regime that is flat poison. But so it goes.

MOU that is now being called off because Israel went ahead and did what is good for Israel? Whay I enjoyed is the news of Israel capturing a huge network of tunnels paid for by Iran with estimates of several 100s of hezb fighters and drone operators running short on water and food.

Thanks for proving my point about your absolute lack of understanding of this situation. You think you got something here? You are dropping a clip of DJT, the same DJT who is famous for his hypoerbole and claiming credit for sunrise and you are taking it this pitch as a Pentagon debrief? He is feeding his own brand and not arguing that Hamas, Hezb, or Iran are millitary masterminds. Thanks for confirming your entire worldview is built on 15-second social media clips.

Sure. It's a risk (that Israel and US will take the high road) Iran took and it paid off. Again, we agree on the outcome but I think Iran is shrewed when it takes risks and up to this point it has been paying off. More so in the last round with Trump.

It is genuinely embarrassing how much loud, confident ignorance you manage to cram into a single post. You aren't analyzing Middle East politics. You are typing out a fever dream of fiction fueled by TikTok algorithms with zero historical literacy. Let's ground your post a bit. First, your delusion that Iran and its proxies could "eliminate Israel at any moment" if the US steps away is mathematically and militarily brain-dead. Iran couldn't even protect its own proxy leadership from being systematically turned into statistics over a single weekend, and Hamas is trapped in a blockaded strip, having lost nearly 50% of the land from beforec Oct 7th. Believing they pose an existential threat to a nuclear-armed state with one of the most tech advanced militaries on Earth shows you are absolutely no grasp on conventional warfare. Nevermind that Israel won its most decisive victories of '48 and '67 without massive US aid alignment. Second, calling a collection of religious extemeist loons who have economically gutted Lebanon, ruined Gaza, and hidden in tunnels while their chivilians take the hit "discipline and restraint" is a peak Stockholm syndrome. If watching your entire command structure get obliterated by exploding pagesr and airstrikes is your definition of "defeating a superpower", then please, keep on winning. Third, falling for fake internet quotes in 2026 is pathetic. The "gaza holocaust" quote you attributed to May Golan is widely exposed, illiterate mistranslation of a Hebrew interview, where she said she was proud of "ruins of Hamas infrastructure." Seriously, go listen to it and use Google Translate. If you have to invent fake quotes ot make your point, you already admitting your actual argument is a loser. And by the way, this isn't the first time I caught you falling for fake Internet memes from propaganda accounts. You can scroll back many pages back and it's all there. Maybe it's time to reconsider what echo chamber you are in? Finally, trying to use JD to imply US is cutting Israel loose completely exposes your political illeteracy. Vance's entire stance is to cut through the red tape and let israel finish the job faster and harder. JD knows that this particular excursion by Trump was a huge miscalculation and as an American, I do too. I have no clue what Trump was thinking about here and in Trump's fashion, he is trying to bull his way into a deal and disengage, even if it means bullying Israel into stopping its activities. But to think JD or anyone sane thinks that Hamas/Hezb are good guys and the US is going to throw Israel to the wolves is just naive. You lack the basic factual baseline required to have this conversation. Seriously, pick up a history book. It is fascinating how much pro-pal and anti-israel folk just refuse to help themselves and continuoully humiliate themselves. Oh and do consider changing up your X/TikTok algo. I suspect you are getting fed a healthy diet of propaganda.

I tend to agree with your asessment though I think our conclusions are a tad differnet. I think Iran was acting rationally. What is being conflated is moral/conventional rationality with strategic rationality. While Iran's actions are highly destructive and confrontational, they followed a calculated, logical framework aimed at regime survival, regional influnce, and assymetric deterrence. It did take a terrible move by the current president to really reward them handsomely.

LOL...it hurts your feeligns that Itamar speaks the language that really resonates with the neighbors up north? Honestly, how is this different than Rabih Banat, Walid Jumblatt, Ossama Saad or even Wiam Wahhab? It's not. Do you go around calling them genocidal animals? You probably don't even though Hizb shoots indescriminantly into Israel (remember those druze soccer boys that got killed) while Israel takes precautions with Lebanese civilians at the cost of IDF soldier lives.civilians at the cost of IDF soldier lives. Good for Israel obliterating Hizballah. I only wish Israel could turn to be more effective diplomat and capitalize on tactical wins like the pager attack with the main Lebanon and get a peace going. Other than that, good on Israel for continiously pounding the life out of Hizballah.

There is some engineering required because there is Cloudflare in front of CoBF (i.e., your standard python packages will likely fail). If @Parsad permits, I can share the code but here is an example of CPNG thread I just pulled down. I added the screenshot of your chat so you see that I just did it.

sold PANW and ZS. 50% in 2 months is wild. Recycled gains into JOE, TCEHY, GEHC, and SMMNY.

Thanks. Helpful. This was my thesis when I held it a year or so ago and I took a loss at 65 or so. Might restart.

Why AOS. I looked at them before. I thought the NA segment would grow at an inflation rate, but emerging markets would grow much faster. The former doesn't seem to materialize.

VA and SSDI are two very different programs. VA benefit means he received a service-related injury. It would be no different than someone getting long-term disability insurance in the private sector. Sure, the program rules a bit more relaxed because of the veterans but he is staying within the bounds of that program - so no fraud. You are welcome to lobby a change to the program. As far as home attendants in NY, are you asserting that some receive SSDI and double as home attendants, or that SSDI recipients get home attendants (which makes sense)? As far as your Utah vs. NY/CA comment. Utah disability prevalence is higher than that of NY and about the same as CA. I think what you are trying to say is that fewer people in Utah receive SSDI. Which I guess is true if you compare to NY (3.7%) but it's about the same as CA (2.5% for UT and CA). Never mind the fact that the highest states for SSDI are Alabama, West Virginia, Arkansas, etc., in the union. Not exactly your blue "fraud" states. National statistics just don't tell the story you are telling. The fact that you may know 6 people who are in some form "defrauding" the system may be a sign of the company you keep.

Platner gets $0 ssdi. Your other comments are anecdotes and you know better than to use those as an argument for a program with 9 million recipients.

Roughly 9M people receive SSDI and about half recieve less than the average benefit. In total, around 15M people in the US live with disabilities that qualify them for some form of gov't support. These aren't abstract numbers or exaggerated claims. These numbers represent people facing real, often life-altering challenges every day. It's easy to assume fraud or dismiss these programs from a distance, but I encourage you to spend some time with individuals who depend on this support, and you'll see a different story. You'll see the daily struggles, the limitations, and the resilience it takes just to get through the ordinary moments.