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  1. Theres also the fact that institutions, being the smart money, did what smart money typically does...they effectively missed both industrial and MF. Especially foreign money. The move up in the past few years really just got the appetite going. If you asked a European investment firm what they knew about US MF housing 5 years ago they'd scratch their heads. A lot of that is cultural. Nonetheless, when its likely the safest amongst the safe RE type investments you can make, and inflation protected, you better believe a long, hard rerate is coming. Except....there's really not much supply. These morons will be paying up, for a long time.
  2. I dont think being super bullish in 2013 was the right move. The housing market really didnt do anything until 2020. The institutions can underwrite whatever they want but theres a very fixed supply of existing MF and SF housing and massive constraints for a long time until that can be built out. Best case if you start today is ~2-3 years assuming you have a great contractor and elite leasing team. Thats all that matters if you're in an area that people want to be. Ive got equal concerns about all the office overhanging NYC type markets being converted to MF as well...but whats that gonna take? 5-10 years to build?
  3. A few cases of Eagle Rare 10 year. Preparing for the impending bourbon crisis.
  4. Yea I certainly wouldn’t go too wild on any of the specific companies. But that’s kinda the point of just settling on some long dated calls and then letting it be. Very little money upfront and solid long duration upside optionality. 90% of my exposure is between the futures options and index calls.
  5. Yea it’s unique and nuanced. I don’t have an opinion on iron ore other than higher for longer so CLF works. I think crude rips and I hate oil and gas companies so I just want the sure thing. But if you know a company well gibbons is right. I don’t. I’ve gotten some RIG, NOV, SLB leaps and a few others. There’s a varying spectrum of probability and outcome, but also correct is you don’t want to pick the idiots who hedged out the whole book and some future production and then….whoops.
  6. Todays earnings kind of another reminder for the "cant find anything to invest in crowd"....whats the reason for not investing in banks?(besides being scared of one's shadow)...if nothing changes, they still earn gobs of money, allocate capital wisely, and trade at 10-15x. If the risks of relevance emerge(IE inflation) they clean up. Doesnt sound like a tough choice to be long any of the BAC/JPM/WFC/C/TFC bunch should one have a stunted list of investment options.
  7. Ive been politely(and sometimes not so politely) been suggesting this to folks for a long time. Put your fuckin geek sheets and Excel tabs away and focus on the bigger picture. If a 10-20% valuation differential matters to your investment thesis you're wasting your time. I always get a kick out of the smart guy book reports that ultimate lay out a thesis that more or less says, "if a, b, c, d, e, AND f, occur...you've got 25% upside"...so dumb and such a waste.
  8. Yea I don't want and wouldnt recommend getting too much exposure to individual companies. I have leaps on a few, but this is where Kuppy nails it. Too often folks look at a situation and immediately gravitate to "gee I'll buy a 2% position in XOM/OXY/etc common stock!"......yawn and yuck. The key is finding the most efficient way to put on the trade and make money. You can have tons of scenarios as we've all seen where oil goes nuts and the companies fuck up. So just being long the futures or even better call options on the futures is the best way to play it, or so Ive found.
  9. Thats fine and all but prices are largely driven by future expectations. Is it going to be easier, or harder to increase output going forward? Is demand going up or down? Then add in easy money and the locust nature of speculators to an already out of whack supply/demand equation and you get....well, what we've seen in everything from Gamestop to Uranium. Tangentially, I recall back in the early part of the decade how easy it was to start up an O&G venture. We'd get PPMs all the time as well as offers to go out and see all these "deals" that were in the works. Now, as others have said, even the majors are going to have trouble getting reasonable terms to refi existing debt. I mean on one side we have Cathy Wood saying oil should head back to $40 because we're about to get deflation, and then on the other side you have guys like Tepper and Kuppy lickin their chops at this setup. In between we have the policy makers playing the "lie to me slowly" game. No inflation. Transitory inflation. Gonna be a little longer than we thought. Gonna be a lot longer than we thought but still temporary. Uh oh, we lost control! Everything one needs to see to make highly assymetric bets is right in front of us. Its pretty awesome.
  10. The price movements and covid caused bottlenecks are what make this stuff sooooo easy to trade. Its all so predictable and has been for way too long that at points I wonder if it really is this easy. But when you have folks like the ESG clowns investing irrationally, that removes a certain layer of efficiency from the market.
  11. Prem is just playing 4D chess. He’s hidden from the market his experience and expertise in tech. He’s even purposely made some bad investments just to throw off anyone hot on his trail with respect to his secret tech talents. Obviously BB is the next Apple. Don’t doubt, or pout. Have faith….FFH is the next Naspers. Between Digit and BB pretty soon you’ll be able to buy BB shares at a 20% discount to market through simply purchasing FFH shares and better yet you’ll get everything else at FFH for free.
  12. I can sympathize with folks who have a couple hundred thousand in retirement funds in their 60s...it shows an effort and if you're not white collar its hard to get much more than that. But theres no excuse for not owning a home over the past 5 decades. Housing has spent exactly what? 5-10 years during that stretch as arguably unaffordable? Stop. fucking. renting. Now its getting past the point of no return which will just make it worse for folks as far as housing goes. But back to these people. Not only do they have 0! but they are talking about $4000 in debt as this huge thing. "Chipping away" at it? How do you chip away at $4000 lol? Isnt that like just something you pay in a month or two? Or roll into a no interest promo balance transfer? Part of me feels bad for folks, part of me doesnt understand at all, and part of me is thankful because if the majority of people weren't so dumb it would be harder to do well in life and certainly make things much more expensive.
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