So maybe 18 months ago, a few of us did some work on STX, which at the time was trading in the $80-120 range. Right, the AI trade was already a bit long in the tooth, but the general idea was that the memory stuff was the last leg that needed a repricing. Of course the reason it was the last to rally after years of anything AI gains, was because it was and always will be a shitty commodity type cyclical biz. Nevertheless we ran a whole bunch of different scenarios, and even in the most optimistic blue sky scenario, the highest price we could arrive at for STX was about $400 per share. After exiting in its entirely this past April, the stocks of STX and all its peers then basically did a 3x. Classic blowoff top. Nobody, and I mean nobody when you ask them why you would ever pay $1000 per share for Seagate, can give you even 1/10 of a reasonable answer within the framework of how we arrived at $280-410 price targets 18 months ago. At best, you get some vague crap about "AI gonna be big" and "higher for longer" on memory prices. Which still no where remotely justifies even $500 per share.
So end of the day, it's some legit analytical worked overlapped primary with a gut feel for where the cycle is. The majority of my most prosperous investments/trades have been gut feel calls. If it doesn't work out I can maybe at most lose MSD of my capital. NBD.