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Gregmal

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Gregmal last won the day on April 2

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  1. Sure there is. Look at all the spending packages being promoted as immediate and urgent. And all the other stuff they’re jamming in. War is always a great excuse to move money around
  2. The amount of money and power available to the incestuous complex during times of “war” is too attractive to them. The complex includes military industrial but they’re just a piece of it. The powers that be love war. Look at how much freedom some were willing to give away to the government because of a bad flu strain a few years ago! Telling people they are in danger and in need of protection is the easiest snake oil to sell.
  3. We need “wars” to excuse 2013s oil prices and inflation being a little higher than normal going into elections. Always have to have something to point a finger at…remember, Joe Biden told us the buck stops with him. Guess the dementia has taken its toll.
  4. Think its very clearly in the interests of a lot of the establishment to keep this and Ukraine going.
  5. This really isn’t an issue for most companies. It’s only really related to investment managers and such, and those certainly don’t trade at a market multiple.
  6. Conversely, Ill give you another...I earlier also wanted to hedge and the IWM has been money there the past few years. I wanted duration and there is plenty on the chain. But OTM and duration are tough. So I bought $220 Dec 2025 puts. Figured if we rip its ITM enough where I can take another stab while its still got some time to work out...IE 20% move from $205 Would still mean I can save the trade or size it up with a decent probability of it coming back in. So I could double down. Versus if I went for say $150 puts...its a hero trade kinda and a move to $250 more or less crushes the realistic odds I can ever salvage that strike. So in this case I like things where I can have the market be flat and not lose much, go down and make money, or go against me and trade it again.
  7. Why go a week out? It’s funny you mentioned this because I got bored and saw a trade setup a couple weeks ago and just closed out pretty much this trade. TSLA at 175 looked good for a hedge. I didn’t want near dated stuff because I’d have to time it perfectly. I didn’t want to go too deep in the money because it’s a volatile stock and can quickly go against you…so less capital exposed was my goal. I settled on Sept $150 puts for $10.50 figuring the time value would buy me a few months to be right. But a quick move to about $150 would bet me 50-70%. Closed em out this morning for $16.5-17. So…what is your wager? Tesla gonna tank, fast. A timing call? Hedge you don’t care about not working out? Fundamental short…IE you need time for it to play out and just roll options? Most crucial thing with this stuff is how you structure it. Also keep in mind, VIX 20 vs VIX 14 matters too.
  8. It really just depends on what you’re trying to do.
  9. I just can’t stomach investing with management teams that exhibit zero shame or accountability for such putrid performance. At least not anymore
  10. Nah. Remember how long Fauci kept lingering around and doing his stupid pressers even though everybody but NY and CA moved on from COVID? Jerry’s doing the same thing. Im actually semi hoping for a Trump victory just to see this guy get fired. He’s a clown.
  11. This is what’s so bizarre about this whole inflation saga. The culprits have been super obvious. First go around it was clear as day that stimulus checks and shut down related supply chain disruption was the majority of the “9%” inflation. Now it’s obvious housing and secondarily energy is most of the inflation. Yet people wanna talk about services lmfao….it’s like talking about the attractiveness of a 500 lb chick and being like “yea she’s got a really nice bracelet!”…Who TF cares?
  12. The problem with small cap stuff is that even with good ones, G&A can be a huge chunk of the overall earnings. So right out of the gate, you are at odds with their management because its almost a survival thing for them to ensure they can pay themselves. In the mid-larger cap space, its really just the product of most management personnel being career whores. Ladder climbers. So even when you get good ones, they have little loyalty and will bounce for a bigger check or better job title elsewhere. While theyre employed they are motivated by maximizing their compensation. So me, I just kind of hunker down in stuff that is the exception to a lot of this, and Ive only really found that exception to occasionally exist with either founder led, or owner operator type C-suites. Folks underestimate how disruptive it is when the C-suite is constantly turning over. Culture at a company is built over many years, and cant evolve in a positive way when every 5 years a new guy comes in asking for stock options.
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