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Some estimates say more than a year, and that’s the thing: a year is long enough for new pipelines and other means to be built. A year of not shipping oil is catastrophic for Iran though.

Where am I from? Currently I live in Seattle in the US. However, originally my ancestors came from your part of the world, in Northwestern Germany, arriving in the US sometime in the late 1800’s. Grandparents on both sides of my family could still speak German, but my own parents could not, nor can I. Here in Seattle, the folks I encounter who are interested in talking about investing are focused almost exclusively on Tesla, or Nvidia, or Bitcoin, or electric plane manufacturers or small pharmaceutical companies that may win the lottery with the next blockbuster drug, none of which I know anything about. They may have heard of Warren Buffett and know a bit about Berkshire Hathaway, but even when I worked in the insurance industry, it was rare to come across someone who had even heard of Fairfax or Markel or Charlie Munger and Benjamin Graham. And my experience here in the US was the same as yours, with no opportunity to learn about investing in school. I presume the same is likely true in much of the world, and I admire the efforts of folks like @Viking for his work in setting up an educational website on investing, targeted at young folks in Canada.

Thank you, @Viking! Great post! I was aware about a lot of the aspects, but I wasn't aware, that Thorndike put that into such a nice book; I will read it! Thanks! With FFH, BRK, MKL, BN, BAM being at the core of my portfolio, I am heavily invested into longterm compounders where the CEOs have aspects of that way of thinking. Your article was a starting point for me regarding checking my own investments and lookin for new and smaller ones. This was not done systematically - but maybe someone is interested in the results, that Perplexity found in that process. Please find attached! Some companies just don't fit really and a lot of criticism could be done, but I think it works as a starting point for further investments; at least for me. Would be interesting to learn, in which of those others here in the forum are invested. I am invested into Protektor (10% of my portfolio; I sold some FFH shares two years ago as it just became over 50% of my portfolio and that felt too big for me; and invested the proceeds into Protektor, which doubled since than), FFH, MKL, BRK, BN, BAM, DHR and Rational (just a small fraction; they build cooking systems for a la card and Franchise restaurants; world leader in that sentiment; too expensive for me to invest big). outsider_investments_table_en_colored.html

Those words of you resonate a much with me. It mirrors my situation a lot; being located in Germany I never (!) met someone live being interested in Value Investing. We have a lot of speculators here, and all the more, when the markets are up and when daily news writes about it. I got asked two weeks ago about SpaceX and if I would invest into it. I didn't even know about it and said that frankly... People know I am interested in stocks, and if it gets to stocks (which is not very often as no-one is taking time to read about; you just don't learn about stock investing in school, not from your grandparents or fathers... It's just no-one is invested longtime) always ask me for Bitcoin and Tech. That's so typical for Germany. Investing is on noones radar; speculation is. They all want to get rich quickly and when they ask for Tech, I tell them "I don't know about that stock. Only thing I know is, that Tech is not among the best sectors to invest, if history is any guide; the last 20 years are an exception from the rule". I really like reading your stuff too, @Maverick47. Thanks! Where are you from?

Whether bubble or not, these thousand intraday NQ point moves is pretty great Boy I remember in 2004 when NQ was around 1300-1400. Now it's 30000! Not bad baby!

I have an inking it works like this. Trump to release frozen funds to Gulf states for reparations Trumo declares victory and moves on to other projects. Greenland anyone, Cuba, $250 dollar bill with his visage, 6 flag amusement park on the White House lawn, WH ballroom. So many projects and so little time. The Gulf states negotiate with Iran for price Iran gets funding for rebuilding matching the amount of frozen funds given to them in exchange for keeping the SOH unmolested. Money is fungible and can be laundered. Everyone wins. Anyways, once the Trump armada leaves for other projects, the Gulf states will make a deal with Iran of some sorts, The sooner he leaves, the quicker the deal.

SOH still closed. All it takes for Iran to take pot shots at some ships or the escorts (US Apache helicopter was downed a few days ago) and not much goes through. https://hormuztracking.com

China has a mssice storage capacity for crude and crude products, That why they are able to reduce imports so much but this will only go so long. I think they have storage capacity for almost a year with I’d consumption. Japan has similar storage capacity. The rest of Asia not so much and that’s why they have shortages already.

If Iran can't stop them - they're screwed...

Why would anyone give Trump something of permanent value or something that cannot be reversed for a deal with Trump? Trump has renegated on pretty much on everything he said or put his signature on. It’s pretty much his modus operandi and should be know by now. That’s why I don’t think a nuclear deal will happen. Furthermore, if Iran gets the bomb, they are pretty untouchable. So think they will do everything they can to get there. It’s basically what every nation from Ukraine and North Korea and now Iran. Everyone needs nukes.

Sorry it bothered you, I’ll avoid posting rumors until it’s finalized.

I'm kind of curious if anyone here is a developer using AI? Or in another field where AI, especially agents are making a huge push? Regarding "How much would you be willing to pay?", that's a reasonable question. But the ones to ask are, "How much does using this tool increase your productivity, and how much does that productivity cost/deliver in value?". There's nuance there, but if you're a software dev making 100K annually, maybe driving 250k in revenue and using agents increase your production by 12%, is 1k a month a bad investment? What if it 2x's your production? Now, does that 2x in production result in 2x revenue? probably not? Uber CEO seems to think that not. But it sure writes a lot of code. To me so far the biggest boon has been in 0 to 1 projects. I've created about 5(?) projects I would've never been able to even start. Did they increase revenue? Not all of them, plus I'm deeper down in the org, so there's no one-to-one. The actual production code is a bit harder to quantify. Teams still need to figure out how to get the massive amounts of code properly deployed, but that's a known bottleneck and will keep evolving. i.e. the models are really just the baseline right now. It's the agents and frameworks that are making the difference going forward...

It all hinges on the nuclear materials. If US gets its way there, then it is a win! If it doesn't, total loss! We shall see what happens. Cheers!

All of this is hopium. Trump has claimed a deal is close 39 times now. So you will forgive me if Im skeptical of both sides. Instead of pontificating over every word out of their mouths, how bout just ignoring it until its more than words.

- Iran doesn’t trust him which is why they want 50% of their frozen funds immediately transferred upon signing the MOU. Blockade will also be lifted immediately and they can start charging a fee for ships to cross. This allows Iran to come out of the war stronger than before. (My bet, there will never be a nuclear deal and this ensures it is kicked to the next president) - of course he can always reneg but Iran will shut the SoH again. The wild card is the genocidal maniac in Israel. The real question, can Trump keep him on a leash? Iran will attack Israel again if they get out of line by continuing to blanket kill Lebanese civilians. They are just sick individuals.

MOU? Is that like the last MOU? Or the one before? Or the one before that? An MOU that includes the fact that it isn't a deal, it's an agreement to work on a deal? Seriously? And all of this with the guy who renegs on every deal he signs?

100%

Sold 1/2 of my IVZ position

New starter position in ADSK

Trump only believes in retaliation when he is doing the retaliation and if you mentioned Machiavelli to Trump, he would want to know where he was so he could call DHS to have him deported.

Niccolò Machiavelli's The Prince warns that any injury you inflict on a rival must be severe enough that you never have to fear their retaliation.

Iran FM was reading the details of the MOU. - Do you find the MOU a wish list? The plan is officially signing is this Sunday. (Trump/Nethanyahu are chronic liar so let’s see)

Ah, ok, I get your reasoning. I totally missed that you were being sarcastic.

So this is a wish list, not terms of a deal. Let alone an actual deal.

Key points from the Iranian Foreign Minister’s statement on national TV (Islamabad memorandum) • Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets • Fees for the Strait: Iran will require payment of fees for ships using the Strait of Hormuz. • Lebanon ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal (I cannot wait to see Israel perform the walk of shame back home) • Condition for final deal: If these (and other) obligations are not fulfilled, negotiations for a Final Deal will not proceed. Summary: the following are non negotiable and they won’t discuss a nuclear deal unless the above is met. The others is most interesting as it seems most of the points I mentioned will be covered - so far it’s a loss, not confirmed total loss yet! @cubsfan @dwy000 @73 Reds @RichardGibbons https://x.com/iranobserver0/status/2065519586556903840?s=46&t=hjN-OM8Ag3ECARJAPuELYQ