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Spekulatius

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Spekulatius last won the day on September 15

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  1. I think people make the 70's worse than they were. Sure, the 70's had two major crisis - 1974 and 1979 - both oil price shocks, but there was actually pretty healthy growth in between. For example I did a quick calculation of the geometrical GDP growth in the 70's and got ~2.52%, also this was extremely volatile. I also read (but can't confirm) that real wages did fairly well in the 70's until 1979 when the economy was throttled by the oil price shock and higher interest rates (this 15% inflation caused a significant loss in purchasing power because the wages did not adjust with inflation any more). I believe it is the oil price shocks and the miserable end of the 70's decade that stuck to the memories, not the fairly healthy growth in between. Anyways, this 2.52% growth rates is higher than what we have right now over the last decade:
  2. Bought some DISCK in various accounts. Also a starter lot of PSMT.
  3. I agree. Talk is cheaper than shorting.
  4. There is very little appetite to do lockdowns anywhere, blue or red state. That said, in Europe and Germany, Hospitals running full forces hands. I know for fact that in some areas in Germany (Bavaria and Saxonia), hospital were running full and patients had to be airlifted to other parts in Germany with less case loads. Somewhat surprising given the higher vaccination rate there, but keep in mind that the Astra Zeneca vaccine was widely used and it has proven to have lower efficacy. My brother in Germany has a friend who ended up going to the hospital from COVID-19 even though he was double vaxxed with Astra Zeneca to add an anecdote. He is in his mid fifties. Note that this has nothing to do yet with the Omnicron variant, which i believe to be not yet a factor for In Europe, but will be. I do think we will see a surge in cases in the US too post Thanksgiving (cases should start going up in a week or so) and Xmas. However, it is hospital utilization that drives decisions (or should) not case load. Maybe the emergency authorization of the Pfizer antiviral helps out too. It's a good idea to get the booster shot, if you haven't already. I got mine last month. Back to the topic of this thread, I wonder if this gives the Fed an excuse to delay tapering. The Fed announced an end to tapering at the end of this year, but it seems to me that they are just looking for excuses to delay anything that could cause pain to the market.
  5. My quick math on $SHEN is ~$77M in 2021 Capex creates about 38.5k in homes added (this was from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021 so a bit of a timing mismatch). Sp this translates into 77M/0.0385M = $2000 per connected home in Capex. this is a bit higher than the cost per homes added in their IR presentation ($1000-1400) but lower than the number from Tucsow which is about $2300) . I think this Capex number may contain some expenses for future home connections but I am not sure. Their ARPU for Glo fiber $74 9dropping from $79) , so they make $888 in revenue from each connection. If the $2000/connection is the true cost, this would not be a great return, if the $1000-14000 is given correct, it looks much better. Again this is a cost and landgrab game. if you need to compete against a cable co that charges $50 and offers a few hundred MB/sec in a community, I don't think a competing fiber offering that comes in at $75 will do that great. If the only choice is DSL for $30-40 then I think many will upgrade to fiber. I think the greenfield Fiber builders go for the latter mostly except in communities where they can make connections much cheaper. https://investor.shentel.com/static-files/0d64f171-f43b-41b1-8257-8b07e8d327af
  6. Omicron $OMIC coin is a 4+ bagger in one day. This game isn’t that difficult, people.
  7. People don’t give a damn about NAV discounts. If anything, those discounts have been going up over the years, not going down. Examples are Exor, SFTBY, PRSOY, Bollore. These discounts don’t go away by themselves. Only value realization, simplifications, buybacks or structural changes will do so.
  8. It really depends. I did make an A-B test(FIOS and Charter Cable) in my former house in Long Island and FIOS was rock solid while Charter had issues (equipment was lousy, connection sometimes unreliable). I played an online game at this time and did a fair amount of investigation - ping measurement, ping tracing) and could identify infrequent issues that were even evident sometimes using regular internet or streaming, especially on high usage snow days. Speed is actually not the main factor - I had speeds from 100Mb to 1Gb from the two vendors and everything at 100MB and above feels pretty much the same. I have FIOS in my current house and still use the same Gateway router I bought in 2015 It’s rock solid with good wifi signal everywhere ( my house is quite large -3500 sqft). I do agree that speed (and price sells) but I don’t think it is the main factor determining a good broadband service.
  9. I don’t know the answer to this question, but if you build FTTH at 1.5k a pop and manage to signup 30% of the connections, then I think you are doing OK. This is very achievable when competition is weak (only DSL). If there is already an incumbent or worse 2 on cable with decent speeds, the economics don’t work. The underlying assumption is that once you lay fiber a d have a decent market share in a semi rural market, who is going to come in and stir the pot? It does not make sense unless the challenge can put in fiber much cheaper per pop. The key to FTTH buildout is to have low costs , which means sufficient density and weak competition (ADSL). That way, you can gain market share quickly. Without these two, the FTTH buildout economics are challenging. The high density areas are mostly picked over as there are generally two competitors already. The smaller FTTH builder that I know pick the areas carefully. The larger ones like ATT and CNSL target areas where they have existing customers on DSL that they can switch over to FTTH once build out and hence future proof the customer relationship.
  10. If any FIOS customer want to save some money here is a great deal: https://slickdeals.net/f/15417262-verizon-fios-black-friday-sale-200mbps-or-300mb-internet-w-12-months-of-disney-and-amc-for-39-99-mo-save-10-mo-on-unlimited-wireless?page=9#comments I have FIOS 400MB/$60 and changed it to 200MB/$40 month just calling in. I don’t get the Disney + etc that way though but it’s easier than cancelling and existing account and setting up a new one. From my experience , downgrading the speed from 400MB to 200MB makes no difference. I had upgraded from 100MB to 400MB a few month ago for a few bucks more and no one in Spek’s household even noticed (I didn’t tell them).
  11. I like Henkel and owned it in the past. That said, results have stagnated (due to decreasing margins) since about 2017 and it seems correlated with management change. I believe assets are good (they are basically market leaders in adhesives) but they seem to struggle with execution. I believe the issues are fixable, the LT track record of Henkel is pretty good.
  12. Bought at bit more SWMAY, HENKY, MXCT and a starter in ADSK. My wife and I also put 10k each into isavings bonds.
  13. I got these issues too occasionally, so it is definitely not a local problem. The problem typically doesn’t last and is gone after a few minutes but before the change in the website design, this site was definitely more reliable. That said, the redesign has grown on me.
  14. @LearningMachine I believe SHEN cost to connect a home to fiber is lower than cable because both are in different areas. their FTTH clusters target higher density areas than where their legacy cable networks are. I believe that’s why the costs are lower with Glo (FTTH). SHEN isn’t cheap and if you look at valuation metrics, make sure to account for the $400M in tax payment outflow in Q4 this year. This tax payment is related to their sale of tower asset that funded the large ~$18/share special dividend paid earlier this year. They do seem to be excellent operators (look at the LT stock chart) and their disclosure is excellent too and gives you some yardsticks how a good operator views the economics. Their 5G “Beam” broadband effort targets a very rural area in WV and they only have speeds up to 100MB. My sense is that they don’t feel they could compete with either cable much less fiber so they target areas that likely will have neither for the forseeable future. Even there, they seem to have trouble signing up customers, at least that’s my impression. The whole broadband space is becoming more interesting because now more technologies are competing with each other 5G, FTTH, cable, so it is interesting how it will shake out. I am watching closely FYBR,(small position), CNSL(ambitious FTTH buildout but weak financial profile ) T ( interesting because of corporate restructuring and surprisingly good FTTH signups) and TMUS (looks somewhat expensive but they have by far the best growth profile and spectrum assets to implement 5G at the lowest costs with a possible entry into broadband). So the whole space that has long been stagnant sees changing dynamics.
  15. I think people switch from ADSL to FTTH in drives though. The fiber over builders I follow seem to concentrated on areas with little competition with mostly ADSL and at most one cable provider. If you do the math, a broadband connection is valued by the market at $6-7k per subscriber, to if you build at $1.5k per connection and manage to sign up 30% you are at $4.5k all in cost per customer which is less than $6-7k. If you target the right areas with reasonable density and only ADSL (which might be their own customers) they can sign up 30% in less than 3 years from what I have seen. Just look at $SHEN earnings report (they have excellent disclosure). I think even with one incumbent cable co, it might be doable to get decent economics. With 2, I think it’s a tough slog.
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