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Spekulatius

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Spekulatius last won the day on March 21

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  1. My guess is that Iran really didn’t want to do that much damage. They were just forced to “do something” to save face after Israel bombed their assets and are probably glad if this does not escalate. Not that Iran government are great guys, but I think they want to stay out of the Gaza conflict. They are more rational than many in the west think, but they are also bound by constraints that can force them into a Zugzwang situation.
  2. The problem is that neither Hamas nor Israel or Iran has a winning strategy. It‘s tit for tat and this for that and as it spirals out of control everyone loses more and more. Sad.
  3. As the world reserve currency, the US has to run both fiscal and trade deficits - there simply is no other way to be a reserve currency, because the $ hasn’t end in foreign hands eventually and that via trade deficits. Its the size of the trade fiscal and trade deficits that is an issue ,not the fact that they exist. On infrastructure - keep in mind that while states and federal government are not the most efficient in building them (most of the time), they can finance them at a way lower cost of capital than private entities. So that compensates for inefficiencies. Also, tolls are a tax on trade and mobility which are beneficial to economic growth, so that’s also to consider.
  4. Buying some ABEV here for yet another swingtrade most likely.
  5. If we get a Liz Truss moment in the US as it pertains to the deficit and capital markets, I think we will be shitting, not peeing in our pants.
  6. Fiscal deficit of 6.3% of GDP means that if the Fed keeps interest rates high it’s not going to do much. It’s like driving full throttle while pulling the hand break.
  7. You need to abuse the McDonalds app to get deals and order the right way and it still works. My son became an expert with this.
  8. The infamous HK dump. This happened a few time with Hk stonks which often have issues that the public later learns about.
  9. You can get lousy index performance when a few stocks start to dominate the index and those stocks start to perform badly. On this case, the average stock in the market may do quite well, but the market cap weighted index would underperform an equal weighted index. A classical example is Canada where Nortel became close to half the index at its peak and then subsequently went to zero. It caused a severe underperformance of the Canadian stock market for quite some time. Another example is the UK stock market with its heavy weighting of financials which imploded during the GFC and did not perform that well years later.
  10. And has badly underperformed since 2016. No guarantees. The period from 1998 to 2112 was an interesting one as different sources boomed and busted at different times. 2000-2002 was foremost a tech crash but utilized got hit badly too (Enron etc). 2008-2009 was a financial crash where pretty much everything crashed, but tech recovered well, while banks never got their multiples back from before and many bank stocks were diluted at the bottom (Citigroup), so they could not recover.
  11. Buying da dip in $LW this morning with small potatoes in my portfolio
  12. This is pure gold (on Moody‘s):
  13. Annual report is out. Earnings ~$77.6/share (about flat ) Book value ~$1370/share, of which ~$700 are treasuries, munis and cash. They did buy back ~215 shares this year. Nothing new really.
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