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Spekulatius

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  1. You can’t shut down Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, but you could deter institutions or even citizens from owning and using it, via taxes, money laundering laws etc. If you can’t use it, any crypto currency is pretty worthless, imo. It is also true that the marginal cost (which consist of energy and depreciation for crypto mining equipment) is set by the price of the cryptocurrency , so the more valuable crypto becomes, the higher the consumption of resources. I think we would have a similar problem if we were on gold standard without inflation. We would have to dig fo
  2. I would buy BAH before I would buy TYL. BAH is more federal government consulting , I think @Inofeisone gave some interesting insight that they can leverage this to get more business from states and cities. BAH is a consulting business model that in some way looks similar like my cherished defense contractor stocks, but perhaps with better organic growth prospects. BAH stock has seen some multiple expansion but it is not close to being valued like TYL (for good reasons) but if they can compete against them in the future, this could become a different story. It is a great business as th
  3. ^ The problem appears to be that retail isn’t playing SPAC’s any more, and that’s where the deal pops came from. So far, non of the deals I have been watching has popped and some went immediately below $10. This is probably because the tech bubble seems to be in the process of slowly deflating and the valuation of the SPAC deals still has to reflect this reality, it seems. I do watch some pre-deal SPAC’s from the Koshla venture series. I used to just track KVSA but just noticed that there is a whole family out there - KVSA, KVSB, KVSC all without deals so far. I think they are worth keep
  4. There is also a sweet and short one with CNBC: I always enjoy his commentary. He doesn’t have a fixed view and keeps an open mind.
  5. The biohazard dude on Twitter likes the SPAC too. What is the upside when a deal is announced an the SPAC doesn’t pop? it seems to me that in this situation, there is only downside left once the deal closes. If the market were exited about this, the stock would have popped already. I think the valuation is madness? - 65M revenues for a $17B valuation This is basically a contract manufacturing business with some royalty kickers. if you want o buy a public business that is good at these things, just buy Lonza (they do high value manufacturing mostly for pharmaceuticals). Talking about
  6. So observations: Alibaba’s take rate is small relative to Amazons. their revenues from marketplaces are 0.47T revenue with GMV 7.3T is ~6.4%. Amazon ‘s take rate for 3rd party on their website runs around 20%. Now Alibaba does various things including Marketplaces (Tao Bao, Tmall), logistic services, payments (now de-consolidated), websites , advertisements and even B&M retail sales as well as delivery. I think that one order/ vendor may use several services and they are all added up (in terms of GMV) rather than counted as one. This would explain the lower tak
  7. How does someone who has been actively on this site for a while get value from a Phil Town course? That stuff seems pretty basic, at least based on my first look.
  8. The problem I see for FTDR is that the old way of doing business is very profitable for FTDR, but less beneficial for the customer. Is there really a win win where both the customer experience get's better and the business stays just as profitable but will be growing more (because of a better value proposition for customers). I don't think it's going to be easy and if they try to shake up the business, the road could be rough.
  9. ^ I assumed the lower provisioning was caused by a better than expected loan losses due to stimulus checks. I don’t know if they arbitrarily juiced their results. Frankly, I don’t care, if what they are doing is good for society or of it is fintech or a grubby payday lender. If they can lend at ~100% APR (which is what their income statement and balance sheet suggests) and lever it just 2:1 and keep loan losses to a manageable 30-50% () this business prints money like no other. I do think that there is absolutely no reason to sell a business it’s economics like this, so I a
  10. Doge is a hustle and Elon is a hustler.
  11. Trades at $5.29 pre market. A used car would have held it's value better than LOTZ.
  12. It is easier to create new cryptos than it is to create new elements. If you are a celebrity (Kardishan) or an organization (think NFL) or a company (Tesla) to name some examples, is there really a downside to create to create your own crypto currency and promote the hell out of it? The technical barriers to entry are nil. Dodge coin has proven to get to $100B in market value. That’s larger than the entire US airline industry in terms of market cap.
  13. This is a pretty good Twitter thread on the “True Lending rule” from the Trump administration that made life easier for subprime lenders that operate across many states: Repealing this rule could impose some additional regularity cost for lenders like OppFi, but it is not clear how much that would affect the bottom line. OppFi tried to sell itself as Fintech, but it really is a deep subprime lender. The profitability and growth has been mind boggling - they basically 10x their size and equity (equity growth from $9M to $99M) just through retained profits. I don’t care how you call th
  14. So, I listened to Bill Brewster’s business brew podcast and he has an episode where he interviews Jared Kaplan from OppFi. OppFi is going public via a merger with the FGNA SPAC this year. Bill and Jared talks a lot of about OppFi business, which caters to subprime customers and why it is a good value proposition for them. Anyhow, I looked at OppFi’s pre IPO numbers and almost can’t believe how profitable it is, to the point where the numbers are absurd: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001818502/000119312521135035/d135342dprer14a.htm#tx135342_22 The num
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