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muscleman

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  1. Thank you so much! I really appreciate it!
  2. I am a little confused. Can you please clarify? When you said "No, I don't think so.", do you mean that you don't think the TGA balance will continue to run down to $150 bn, or do you mean that you don't think rate spikes will postpone after August 1st?
  3. Got it. Does this mean treasury will keep running this balance down to $150 bn next month? In that case, rate spike is likely postponed after August 1st?
  4. I re-read your "explain this to 5 year old" post on page 10 over and over and I think I finally start to understand your rational here. i checked the balance here. https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/issues As of July 27th it says "Federal Reserve Account" closing balance today is projected to be 564 Bn. Is this number supposed to run down to 150 bn by July 31st? That seems like a long way to go isn't it?
  5. There is another article not behind a pay wall https://californianewstimes.com/debt-ceiling-replay-to-ignite-fresh-demand-for-fed-facility/460266/
  6. I am buying TLT puts. I wonder if this is the best way to play this incoming rate spike? It all starts to make sense now, especially after Fed is considering to taper. IEF seems to move in a slower fashion. If I own TLT puts and they distribute interest to TLT holders, does that impact me in any way?
  7. Thank you so much wabuffo! I previously totally could not understand what you were saying but now it starts to make sense. Would you please also explain about your TGA and its rate impact analysis in the above way if that is possible? I really appreciate your help!
  8. Hi wabuffo Do you think this new repo would impact your prediction about the interest rate rise in August? It is really hard to understand what this is. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-launches-standing-repo-facility-to-boost-market-liquidity-11627496260
  9. Officials will assess whether to begin shrinking their $120 billion in monthly asset purchases in coming meetings. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-says-economy-has-made-progress-toward-its-goals-teeing-up-bond-taper-11627495233?mod=hp_lead_pos1 That's what we got today. Really? Why can't they assess it now?
  10. https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-aid-planned-for-mortgage-borrowers-at-risk-of-foreclosure-11627032601 Just as we are still discussing the new 3.5 Trillion bill last week, they now have one more stimulus bill today. It seems like this administration believes that all problems could be solved by throwing out money.
  11. The bond market is due for a collapse starting in early August. I don't think it is wise to have any bond allocation at the moment. See wabafo's insights here
  12. Sure! I actually think the overall market is building a top and about to roll over, which will put a lot of pressure on FNMAS and drag it down as well.
  13. I would challenge you to find out the 10 single largest up days since 2007. Hint: They are mostly in 2008. Usually bear markets are much harder to play with because in hindsights, it is very tempting to think "Had i bought yesterday, I would have been up 15% today". Bull markets on the other hand, usually have small up and down days but go for a long time.
  14. Why is the takings case taking so long? There hasn't been any progress at all in the last 2 years right? Is the judge sleeping?
  15. Good luck! I've been trading this around over the years and I don't think the bottom is in yet. This is a highly illiquid stock with big funds buying day after day when some good news start to show up, or selling day after day when some bad news start to show up. I think there is still a long way to go before they finish dumping all their positions. I think the best time to get in is when we start to have some hints of good news showing up and we know these big boys will start buying day after day for multiple weeks.
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