Spekulatius

Yes every significant merger is going to get sued by the FTC and COF and DFS will have a high combined market share in credit cards. It is going to be tough to get this merger to close, imo.

LHX has very straightforward management incentives. They have been bulking up with acquisitions to become a prime contractor, but it has stretched their balance sheet somewhat. I think GD is probably the best run of the primes. LMT has a great balance sheet so they could flex when growth prospects are limited because some much is dependent on the F35 program which is not a priority in the current defense budget.

Sold most of my DFS yesterday. I think the merger with COF will be blocked and I expect DFS to fall from current levels (~$130 sales price).

Forward multiples. Nobody drives just looking in the rear view mirror.

Myanmar is an interesting situation because it looks like the Junta running the country may lose the Guerilla war and get toppled. Could happen quicker then many people think. China is also vying for influence there, of course. Hopefully our folks from the state department are also paying attention.

Yes, the defense budget is already old news. The defense stocks are very dependable slow growers typically so while the business model is like an industrial , they are almost like annuities or consumer staples in a sense. You get extra browny points owning them if there is geopolitical strife and local wars. I keep holding RTX mostly and sold out of LHX in my IRA accounts (for a profit). One thing to keep in mind instant the Ukraine war has not been as good as you might think for defense stocks, as some focus has shifted from F35 to other more pressing issues, which has hurt LMT for example.

Picked up some CNHI shares this AM on the dunk related to the CEO change.

Pretty good and short assessment of the situation from Sarah Paine : She is correct (imo) that dictators tend to tell anyone who will listen what they are going to do, before they do it. She very well explains the difference between maritime and continental order and how cooperation creates wealth via win win versus expansion and win-lose.

I agree the optics matter. Making $10 or $20M isn’t worth the headache for Berkshire. Think about this, if this becomes a political issue, it could mean that WEB get dragged in a Congress hearing to testify. Probably not worth it for him.

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x leverage.

I booked a vacation during Gulf War I. It was very cheap. So, if you are cheap, you could get better airfare prices if this escalates. In any case, the Gaza Strip is not in Europe, so it’s not going to affect European travel directly. Flights to Israel, or travel from Europe to India or Gulf States is a different story.

I love old annual reports. The writing was so much clearer and you could get a grip what the company you owned was doing and where they tried to go. Her is Lockheed 1958 and Getty Oil 1956 annual reports (the oldest I could find). Some of t(r airplanes introduced in lockheeds 1958 annual report are still flying. getty oil 1956.pdf Lockheed 1958ß.pdf

I love this song, but the choreography is out of this world:

After watching “ Boy Swallows Universe” this:

Xi came into power in 2013 but it did only became gradually obvious that Chinese way of checks and balances within the party (via committees and fractions and term limits ) are replaced with one man Neo Maoist rule. The Frog is slowly getting boiled, I guess. I have a few shares of BABA which I intend to hold, but I have a hard time seeing me making a large investment in Chinese equities until something changes for the better.

Gilded age is pretty good. We did a trip Westchester county last weekend and had a tour at Lyndhurst castle (highly recommend ) and they mentioned that part of the show was filmed there. We did recognize some rooms from Lyndhurst in S1 E5. Great show, which had a similar feel than Downton Abbey. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4406178/

Alibaba falling seems to be a case of where economic good news is bad news for the stock market. I have heard another economic forecaster talking about the Chinese economy looking stronger than predicted. Here is the version on Archive: https://archive.ph/IRPMZ

My guess is that Iran really didn’t want to do that much damage. They were just forced to “do something” to save face after Israel bombed their assets and are probably glad if this does not escalate. Not that Iran government are great guys, but I think they want to stay out of the Gaza conflict. They are more rational than many in the west think, but they are also bound by constraints that can force them into a Zugzwang situation.

The problem is that neither Hamas nor Israel or Iran has a winning strategy. It‘s tit for tat and this for that and as it spirals out of control everyone loses more and more. Sad.

As the world reserve currency, the US has to run both fiscal and trade deficits - there simply is no other way to be a reserve currency, because the $ hasn’t end in foreign hands eventually and that via trade deficits. Its the size of the trade fiscal and trade deficits that is an issue ,not the fact that they exist. On infrastructure - keep in mind that while states and federal government are not the most efficient in building them (most of the time), they can finance them at a way lower cost of capital than private entities. So that compensates for inefficiencies. Also, tolls are a tax on trade and mobility which are beneficial to economic growth, so that’s also to consider.

Buying some ABEV here for yet another swingtrade most likely.

He forgot about $UNH

If we get a Liz Truss moment in the US as it pertains to the deficit and capital markets, I think we will be shitting, not peeing in our pants.