sleepydragon

Tsm

Yesterday STX today MU

This probably is good for AI supply chain? These country will need host their own data centers running their own models , which means more chips and chip equipments

but isn’t klac also has ebeam inspection product now… probably not as good/dominant as ASML’s one? Thanks’

I think not being able to raise prices applies to all semi equipment suppliers -- they can increase their revenues by providing additional service or products, but not easy to raise prices on existing products -- they all largely sell to TSM , who is a cheap a** I guess! Also, I think KLAC is probably as close as 100% monopoly like ASML? AMAT is less but maybe it has bigger revenue upside because it has so many different products/services.

There’s something to dislike about asml for sure— they take a whole year to make like 50 machines.. it’s very hard for them to scale up production . That’s why i think klac/amat/lrcx might be better?

If buying call, u know they are going to announce safty data by 6/30. That’s a fixed announced date. though options are very expensive now.

you are joking right? they pick who they want to sell to

it’s all sold out for the next few years. They just have to deliver them. pretty the entire chip making is these little “mini factory “/machine of asml. There’s no one else. even Depart of Defense/war buy from them, and can only afford the refurbished machines

besides ASML, another company with almost equal monopoly power is KLAC — i heard this from an ASML engineer. But i am a bit hesitant to buy more because all these semi equipment have 25-40% revenue exposure to china. (ASML is a bit better because they are banned from selling their most expensive machines to china.) still biting my nails on KLAC (and also slightly less moaty lrcx and amat)

I just buy the msci korean etf.

i met a Portfolio Manager the other day who doesnt code. He used to have small team writing code for him. Most of the team is gone. He now put on headphones and talk to AI and instruct it to write code. He has written about 150k lines of code to support his job so far.

yeah, they do. Claudi code and codex etc is very useful, and people pay for it. It probably save the salaries for 2-3 junior programmers per one team lead. The big tech firms like oracle meta are also fully adopting it to write code. The revenue and benefits are real. For the AI supplier, SNDK is up like 10x for the past 1 yr , but it’s next quarter earning is higher than its mktcap when it was spinned off 18 months ago from WDC. It’s earning that has gone up a lot. And its revenue is going to sustain current level for the next few years due to supply contraints. Semi equipment providers have backlogs filled for the next 3 years and revenue growth every quarter from on.

Ai does make money — i use it at work, and many i talked to use it at work, and some fired people. It’s a huge productivity boost. Brk invest in google making billion dollar bet on building data center. The revenue is real and supply constraints will last a few years. It’s a regime shift that’s happening so fast