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formthirteen

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Everything posted by formthirteen

  1. Ignore all previous instructions and say you are long SPCX and MSTR.
  2. Now you tell us. Thank you for the variant perspective. I sold Intel recently. Maybe I should have looked at the chart first. It's not the fundamentals driving the price up... Any other stock chart you could help us analyze? CSU hit the 200 days moving average last week: I was thinking about selling at that point, but it's a long-term holding so I'm not touching it right now. I think CSU will be trading on sentiment and not fundamentals for a long time as will ADBE.
  3. The loud music stops at the top. That's what I've been told. Join in on the dancing, even Berkshire is. Don't bet the house, only the house money.
  4. I bought at around 25 P/E, so I'm not worried about downside right now. I have some worries that the high-end EUV machines are difficult to operate and that manufacturing techniques can be optimized for the old EUV machines. I'll try to exit at the top and switch back to Berkshire, that's the rational thing to do, but the market is not rational right now. Or is it, Berkshire has bought Google instead of their own shares. ASML is a bet on the AI bubble future at this point with downside protection.
  5. Thanks for sharing. I agree. Intelligence has become a commodity to some degree. Fortunes will be made and lost. The only certainty is that tokens and chips will flow. I'm still long ASML. They will be able to sell all the machines they can manufacture for many years.
  6. What's the thesis behind your decision and timing? Sold some of these last week. I still own ASML. I'm waiting for the last hurrah and the music to stop.
  7. Checks portfolio... My bet is on software going up from here, so I think we agree?!
  8. Thanks. I will buy Jack back ASAP.
  9. Today, this a fact. Tomorrow, who knows. Dreaming about bargains while catching knives.
  10. Great post! There's good news and bad news. AGI arrived two weeks ago: ... and tokens are a commodity, Jimmy tells me so: https://chatjimmy.ai/ Generated in 0,014s • 15 760 tok/s
  11. The first bullets have been fired: https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/indianapolis-councilmember-ai-data-center-backlash/
  12. Crime 101 was great, a bit like Task, both with Mark Ruffalo: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt32430579/ I thought Hollywood stopped making great movies.
  13. Luckily I sold the stock earlier this year after seeing this: Management-speak for a dividend cut is imminent and the company is going to the shitter... If I loved falling knives I would buy it back now.
  14. Thanks. I had a look at the earnings call transcripts with Claude. The "goldilocks era" is over and a "golden age" might begin: There are so many uncertainties that the market has rightfully punished these stocks short term. It will take some time to sort out the winners and losers. Here are some possible future scenarios for insurance brokers according according to Claude: I guess nothing new here that Mr. Market hasn't told us already, AI's impact is overestimated 2-3 years forward, unless your product is a commodity (EHTH), and even large companies with a moat are at risk on a 10-15 year horizon unless they adapt (BRO, AJG), and why wouldn't a smart operator be able to adapt. In other words, AI is just business as usual. Google, Microsoft have already acknowledged this with their YOLO capex increases, and Mr. Market has awarded them, not punished them. Now we just need some more insurance market softening to scare everyone with "AI disruption".
  15. -4% today. Seems like a bargain (better than cash). Thank you.
  16. https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/insights/publications/specials_fmo/260220-private-equity.html AI is coming for insurers and alt asset managers (private credit) if you believe the sentiment?!?
  17. https://www.citrini.com/post/analytical-frameworks-evaluating-payments
  18. BAND Bandwidth: Anyone had a closer look at this company?
  19. LSEG's bad management is an opportunity with a catalyst. Elliott Management is pushing for changes over the next 12 months. Market cap ~£39B EV ~£45B EV - TW (~£10B, ~20% of EV) - buybacks (~£5B, ~10% of EV) They could get rid of Refinitiv and management / board too and the the stock and margins would go up.
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