lnofeisone

I am sharing this sauna with you. I'll bring the beers. I bought a 1% position. I also bought some JOE and DPZ.

I saw MU at 1200 and was thinking of shorting it but TSLA got me scarred and scared.

I added to bntx and funding it by selling lqda puts.

I looked at MAT today. Do you have a theory or any suggestions where to get started?

Absent LQDA I'm up 2%. CPNG is a big detractor for me as it was about 15% of my portfolio. I'm not excited about my portfolio but I go to sleep knowing it's probably sound.

This probably belongs in the Olin thread but here is the summary of my thinking. The merger is going to get you a poor man's OxyChem at much lower prices. This is similar to RTO/ROL dynamic. At some point, RTO was just too cheap. I think this is the dynamic with Olin now. It's just too cheap. A little longer version: Olin sells raw chlorine and caustic soda on the markets so they are exposed to the swings of the raw material markte. OxyChem has a chain all the way down to PVCs where they eat up a lot of their own chlorine so they aren't as exposed to chlorine cycle and depend more on PVC which is a lot more measured. On the cost side, OxyChem is tighter integrated in the US Gulf Coast so they get access to cheap NG and oil (cheaper than Olin anyway). In short, OxyChem has better product margins, and lower input cost which is how you get better margins for OxyChem. Huntsman merger will help Olin because it will make it poor man's OxyChem. 1) It will take away the Chlorine volatility. Huntman has a huge presence in methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and that eats A LOT of chlorine...which Olin has a lot of. 2) Olin will now be supplying its own raw materials to its own end products (Huntsman makes things for the likes of BMW, GE, etc.) so their margins should improve considerably. I think the $400M they want to synergize is very optimistic. I'm keeping my number at $125M (the value of NOL that will get utilized). So if you put it all together and assign it EV/EBITDA of 7, you get roughly $40/share or a double from here.

Adding to BN, Fairfax, and bought a restarter in OLN. I had OLN at $40 that I was able to sell at break-even through help of some option plays. It's now at $20, chlor alkali markets are stabilizing, and they are merging with an end user of their raw materials. Worth another shot.

Our therapist is a play-based therapist. She started with the toys our son liked and slowly branched out into other toys/physical activities with a different set of vocabulary/actions. One thing to note is that our son still has difficulty communicating in new environments. We are working through it but it comes with the territory.

Sending you encouragement, @Sweet! You’ve got this, and getting professional assessments is a wonderful, proactive step. Every child truly blooms on their own timeline. My son will be 5 soon, and he didn't start speaking until he was 4, with his first full sentence coming around 4.5. Interestingly, his 2-year-old little sister actually beat him to her first sentence! On top of that, he is one of those amazing kids who can focus on Legos or Magna-Tiles for hours. Because of that unique mix, we naturally wondered about autism. We reached out to several specialists, and the wonderful news was that he was simply a late bloomer with a significant speech delay. It took a little patience to find the right fit, but after two years of speech therapy with a therapist he absolutely bonded with, he is thriving and catching up so fast! While he’s still working hard to bridge the gap with his Pre-K peers, his vocabulary is absolutely mushrooming right now. Hang in there! Trust your instincts, lean on the specialists, and celebrate every little victory along the way. You’re doing an amazing job!

I also think they are swaps. They walk like swaps and quack like swaps. I haven't traded them but have looked at them and I think they are incredibly dangerous for retail investor. If you own calls and the underlying drops like a rock, you lose the value of the call. If you own one of these perps, you might find yourself completely wiped out. Never mind the funding rate, which can eat away at the gains.

I agree. I think Israel can put up a good fight but it lacks the necessary strenght to do anything in Iran and it will 100% become a pariah state. Israel's best capability here is to do what Iran does and that is engage in assymetric warfare.

Again, I have to correct your representation of facts. It's true, the billboards are in Lebanon but they are in a very specific part of Lebanon. They are in southern suburb of Beirut - Dahiyeh - which is a Hezbollah stronghold. And what do they show? They show an Iranian leader Iran couldn't protect, and another leader currently in hiding. You are also wetted to Hezb and not Lebanon. This is what Lebanon stands for doing https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1506737/lebanon-submits-official-complaint-against-iran-to-unsc-for-first-time.html Lebanon as a country doesn't stand for Hezb or Iran. The majority detests both. Iranians might be principled individuals but the regime is not. The regime understands that they caught the US flat-footed unless the US is really willing to escalate adn the Iranian regime is trying to milk it for all it can. They are trying to get the most out of the US adn also show their proxies that they will stand by them...all this after Israel embarrassed Iran on the international stage with the elmination of Ali Khamenei, Nassralah, countless others. Let us not forget Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated in Tehran. Also, what partial withdrawal? Israel is operating in Southern Lebanon and just captured a massive Hezb tunnel that included a drone factory. You've made your anti-Israel stance very clear. Fascinting how you are actually on the side of pro-terror organizations and a regime that is flat poison. But so it goes.

MOU that is now being called off because Israel went ahead and did what is good for Israel? Whay I enjoyed is the news of Israel capturing a huge network of tunnels paid for by Iran with estimates of several 100s of hezb fighters and drone operators running short on water and food.

Thanks for proving my point about your absolute lack of understanding of this situation. You think you got something here? You are dropping a clip of DJT, the same DJT who is famous for his hypoerbole and claiming credit for sunrise and you are taking it this pitch as a Pentagon debrief? He is feeding his own brand and not arguing that Hamas, Hezb, or Iran are millitary masterminds. Thanks for confirming your entire worldview is built on 15-second social media clips.

Sure. It's a risk (that Israel and US will take the high road) Iran took and it paid off. Again, we agree on the outcome but I think Iran is shrewed when it takes risks and up to this point it has been paying off. More so in the last round with Trump.