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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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While I think the thread below is probably helpful to members, I think maybe a thread called "what are you selling today?" will also be helpful. This is not for selling short. Just selling.

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-are-you-buying-today/

 

There could be a few reasons for selling:

1. You just found a better opportunity. Please tell us why.

2. You made an investment mistake. Please tell us the story. What was your original thesis and what is your current expectation.

3. You made a handsome profit on an investment, and you are exiting because it has reached your price target. Congrats on that! It will be great if you could share with us some stories about this investment. Now in hindsight, do you think this is pure luck, or it is your hard working being paid off, and why?

4. Exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.

 

:)

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haven't sold anything for a while, looking to deploy the 40% or so in cash that i have burning in my pocket.

 

the tax man clouded my judgement and prevent me from selling more stock recently (the tax bill is getting too high)

 

still looking for the opportunity to deploy more cash

 

EDIT: anyone with a HIGH conviction opportunity?

 

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muscleman,

 

Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.

 

I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value

 

Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.

 

I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.

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muscleman,

 

Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.

 

I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value

 

Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.

 

I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.

 

Congrats! You still made a handsome profit on that!

I added that as the 4th reason, but I think it is similar to No.2.

As the price drop more, maybe it will be a good time to reenter?

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I sold all my SHLD holding today.

I think Eric is right. Recently all retailers are reporting bad numbers, and SHLD is still losing money. So taking a potential double as the upside does not sound as attractive given the risks.

The other reason is that as we approach the year end tax loss sale season, there could be more interesting opportunities and safer.

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I haven't bought or sold anything recently.  There are a lot of companies I'd love to own, but not at the prices they are trading at.  Ignoring my small positions my portfolio is now (in order) BAC(LEAPS & warrants), FRFHF, AIG-WT, SD(common & LEAPS), HOTR, AAPL

There is nothing I want to sell right now.

 

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muscleman,

 

Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.

 

I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value

 

Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.

 

I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.

 

Congrats! You still made a handsome profit on that!

I added that as the 4th reason, but I think it is similar to No.2.

As the price drop more, maybe it will be a good time to reenter?

 

Thanks muscleman :)

 

I have no complaints about the profit! As for Oi, do look at the thread but after a good deal of analysis I think that unless the stock completely tanks (i.e. under a dollar when currently at around $1.70), there is not enough upside in it

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Sold some BAM.A and BEP.UN

 

Still like BAM.

 

Reason:  BAM is a big part of the portfolio for me and with the debt ceiling debate not going away, I thought some of the $$$ should sit on the sidelines to see how it all shakes out.  May sell more on good days leading up to the 17th.  Upside is limited and downside is meaningful until we get resolution on US government and debt ceiling questions.

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Recently sold half of my position in AAON a HVAC manufacturer that does a lot of custom systems. I just think it's over priced. It's great company Owner Operator, growing market share, strong margins etc.. I put that money into LMCA Which has bumped up nicely since then.

 

 

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Yesterday I sold a little over half my SD LEAPS for basically taking my initial investment off the table and let most of the gains run.  If anyone cares, I will likely wait to see if we get a big sell-off on the political stuff and look for the 2015 LEAPS when they start trading. 

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Not doing anything.  My only position is BP.  Other than that I have tons of cash.

 

Why only BP?

 

Seems cheap and disliked.  I recently bought then quickly sold both MBI and BBRY.  I didn't trust my initial analysis.  I'm looking for some fear elsewhere, but haven't seen much that is compelling.  My positions can change quickly.

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After reducing my leverage over the last days, i sold off the last bit of my AAPL position today. It was a trading position, my price target was 580. It has not reached it but it was close enough to close the position. It was never a high conviction idea for me, so taking profits and putting it to work somewhere else with a better upside potential looks like a good idea to me. Will buy more TI/ARCP over the next days.

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Just sold some XIV today.  Up ~50% in the two months that I have held it.  Yes I am bragging about my luck.  ;D

 

Will reload when the VIX goes above 20 again.

 

Short VXX and/or Long XIV (for a small portion of the portfolio though) has been a consistent winner the past few years. I don't think it is entirely luck, the construction of these products has something to do with it. As long as you can stomach the volatility of these volatility products, I think the shape of the VIX curve kind of guarantees some of this return. I hope they don't pull these products from the market soon....

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Just sold some XIV today.  Up ~50% in the two months that I have held it.  Yes I am bragging about my luck.  ;D

 

Will reload when the VIX goes above 20 again.

 

Short VXX and/or Long XIV (for a small portion of the portfolio though) has been a consistent winner the past few years. I don't think it is entirely luck, the construction of these products has something to do with it. As long as you can stomach the volatility of these volatility products, I think the shape of the VIX curve kind of guarantees some of this return. I hope they don't pull these products from the market soon....

 

I am short VXX/UVXY as well. The near-term of the VIX curve in contango virtually guarantees the decay. I like to spice it up with levered UVXY to let the compounding effect of volatility due to leverage to work in my favor.

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I'm also in XIV and SVXY (which is nice because it has options and it's fun to sell covered calls when the VIX gets low). 

 

It's worthwhile noting that XIV will at some point go to zero in a single day and UVXY at some point will probably go up ten times in a short period of time.  So any investment strategy that involves those ETFs should be designed to be resilient to those sorts of events.

 

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I'm also in XIV and SVXY (which is nice because it has options and it's fun to sell covered calls when the VIX gets low). 

 

It's worthwhile noting that XIV will at some point go to zero in a single day and UVXY at some point will probably go up ten times in a short period of time.  So any investment strategy that involves those ETFs should be designed to be resilient to those sorts of events.

 

Yes, I have also wondered what happens to XIV if VIX jumps 100% in a single day (not inconceivable now given VIX is in the 12-14 range). These products are based on VIX futures. Would the exchange allow a +100% move on the futures in a single day? Aren't there margin rules and/or disruption rules designed to limit the movement in a single session?

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