Longnose

I like this idea. Never thought about doing that.

I don't monitor CAGR or total return. But i once heard the phrase "money is a fickle mistress, if you don't pay attention to her she'll leave you." While the exact % return or CAGR isn't overly important to me. I dont feel like i could ever stop "paying attention" to where my money is at and what is it doing.

Yea i was deep in micron with cost basis less that $50. I felt good about my triple never dreamed it woulda been a 1T+ company. I even beleived the argument that all the AI would fill up all the storage but didnt think it would have a backlog driving them anywhere near what we are seeing now. I still have a very small position that Ill probably just let ride and see what happens.

Funny that i have a very large % ADBE position but don't pay for them. Funny enough. I integrated my AI agent with a MCP for GIMP this week. So now i can tell my agent to edit stuff and It opens GIMP on my computer and starts editing the image there. Instead of just "attempting to regenerate a new image" with nano banana or whatever. Im 100% confident this is underway with ADBE to where they will make a MCP that is callable via API's to paying customers that charges on a token system that will enable your AI generated image to get cleaned up at the pixel level using their software suite. There will always be cheap chumps like me using GIMP. But ADBE will remain and it will become standard and more robust within all enterprises. the freemium offerings are just to ensure that new rising generation of workers continue to stay in and close to the ADBE ecosystem.

I recently listened to a podcast that perfectly captured where we are today: we are currently in the "command line" era of AI. Everything is in its infancy and exploratory phase. The technology relies on us forcing static prompts into isolated models, doing the heavy lifting of copy-pasting and workflow coordination ourselves. But the truly interesting phase is going to happen when the infrastructure layer—the chips, power, cooling, and data centers—finally stabilizes. Once these physical bottlenecks clear, the market value will inevitably migrate upward, splitting into a few distinct waves: The Agentic Orchestration Plane: Autonomous software layers that act as the hands and feet for AI, plugging directly into the deep, messy, legacy systems that actually run global enterprises. Proprietary Data Fabrics: High-performance retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) networks that monetize proprietary, domain-specific data context rather than raw, commoditized computing power. Verticalized AI-Native SaaS: Hyper-specialized software giants scaling up usage and adoption within their own niche verticals, moving from seat-based licenses to full task automation. There is a investment arbitrage sitting in the market right now. Because Wall Street is looking at this through a clouded window, it is pricing many SaaS giants like dying, low-margin utilities. The market is completely blind to how early this cycle is, and is missing the impending transition of these software platforms profitable, consumption based autonomous execution engines. While the hardware grid is heavily priced in, the data, orchestration, and security layers quite attractive as everyone is chasing the capex in semi's and datacenters.

God i love how you can simplify thoughts into such a blunt object. #gregisrighttoday

To add when it comes to heavy concentrated positions I only see 2 real reasons to be this concentrated. Your chasing extreme returns. You have extreme conviction in the company. Maybe you should ask yourself questions around why am I so concentrated in "SaaSco" I usually wont go super deep into a company unless I have extreme conviction in my analysis. It still hurts to be early. But i often feel like I'm having this conversation with my devils advocate in my head. I often feel like burry where i cite the numbers and I'm like the numbers don't make sense the market must be wrong. so i just keep holding. The volatility doesn't bother me. But i do read and seek lots of material for my opposite hypothesis. I don't want to be blinded by bullishness to where I hold into the ground. I have abandoned a few concentrated in the past after admitting to myself that my analysis was wrong.

I cry on the inside. But know the numbers and story of the company up and down. Then I remind myself that markets are irrational and in no world would the company be taken private for the current valuation/marketcap. Then i go to sleep with a hope and prayer that the market will recognize how dumb the valuation is tomorrow. Usually I don't take these positions unless i have really strong conviction. but I am dumb enough to put 75-80% of my eggs in one basket on more than one occasion. Conviction is probably the biggest piece for me. Doesn't make it more enjoyable but it make holding easier.

Service Now posted strong earnings boosting confidence that AI is not killing Software.

Funny thing is. I've been trying to better understand just how vulnerable SaaS is by getting in and doing it myself. Ive now made 3 apps... (stopmotion video app, Bi-Lingual Chinese Storybook App, Snake game app) Its bizzarely easy. Ive come to the conclusion that I will never again pay for a simple app that does something simple. Though the chinese storybook is getting more and more complex layering in more and more layers and the code gets more and more complex and AI for as smart and dumb as it is makes a change but the change screws all the lower layers. and it ends up rewriting large portions of the code cuz it doensnt know how to make simple changes. So if you take this towards the SAP developer or a larger enterprise software with tons and tons of layers. AI does not destroy this easily. For these its an enabler. The code is only as good as the engineer / project manager that can direct to AI effectively. Critical thinking, planning, structure, and execution become more of the driver than the "code" itself. People who can learn these layers of framework will be the valuable employees. The developer role changes now more into a PM who can read and understand the code and understand software architecture more than just a straight "coder" IMO - AI is just an enabler for all these mega softwares. They will keep the best of their developers and software architects and be able to use AI to scale features and clear bugs faster. Not to mention distribution of said software/product. So wierdly im still bullish on AI as an enabler of SaaS even when i can see how easy it is to spool up new apps and software's.

Oof...

Yea, im not sold on the bubble idea either. Im more on the @Cod Liver Oil opinion that its a bit of a mixed bag by sector. Lots of sectors that look quite attractive.

I like Ren. Hadnt heard that Ren song b4. Thx for sharing @rkbabang

I have had it generate several ideas for me that I didnt put any money in and it makes me sad sometimes. biggest example VRT. I asked over a year ago what are some companies that will benefit from the AI wave that are lesser known and value may not be fully baked in. It told me about VRT in the cooling space and several others. I read a bunch of stuff on VRT but ultimately decided to pass. Wish i had thrown a few % at it. I have a hard time buying things that just keep going up. I like it for broad category ideas. then i can go thumb through names. I mostly use AI to look for opposite opinions and argue with me about my thesis's I like to try and defend my investments to make me feel like ive really done my homework and feel confident in the case regardless of what Mr. Market wants to ascribe value to.

IMO many software names are asymmetric right now. If you don't believe that AI is gonna crush software. which I dont.

All 5 of mine (with 2 sets of twins were IVF)

in the words of my deceased father in law. RIP. "You can sleep when you're dead." Yes, i have 2 sets of twins and a singleton in the middle. (life is fun but exhausting).

Document this age as its so fun and doesnt come back. I have a hobby of making video of my vacations and such. So I have all these videos of my first set of twins at 2-4 that are so fun. They really like going back and watching them too. Kids like watching themselves. I am so grateful i made those videos as they age i will be able to go back and remember some of their best moments.

This is all i ever think about when kids swallow coins

it wasnt every 3 day weekend but it sure felt like it. From like 6-10 years old like every 3 day holiday weekend my dad took us kids camping/hiking/fishing all over within a 5 hour drive of home. those were some epic memories and instilled a love of doing stuff outside in me. Im not quite as dedicated as he was but ive been trying to instill a love of the outdoors in my kids. Also, repaying the favor. I just took a trip for my 40th and went down to see the JOE area and spend a week fishing with my old man down in Port of St Joe an St George Island and scuttled butted around panama city. **Edit ** Congrats! BTW. They hard but worth it!

Indeed... Many of them are already at crazy valuations... Ive been doing a ton of playing with AI for coding and really struggling to believe that AI cuts these big boys off at the knees like this. Im struggling to find a good reason why the whole sector is selling off today too. Its like some whale fund, ETF, or index almost has some forced selling on the sector. As im not really finding any news or anything.

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