Longnose

@Fly This is the real question and probably not. it depends on what i was saying about will there be a way for individual to say I want to hold my own assets and can i play on the broader blockchain. I do know these institutions are building blockchain rails internally. what i am uncertain of is if there is a application layer that is cross institutions yet. This can still be private and the validators / nodes can be held by the various institutions. But this is what would allow you to sell your shares to me if you hold your shares in IBKR and I hold mine in Schwab. it needs to leave one and go to the other and they can both hold their own ledgers internally but the application layer needs to be shared with validators on both sides. I'm betting this is happening. Also probably happening in health care with your health records. So yea, it comes down to will they let individual people play in the broader application layer saying I dont want to hold my shares in my wallet and not on schwab? Realistically there probably not a strong investment thesis other than in theory JPM, and other banks/brokers. should be able reducing opex and improving margin and customer experience as they implement the changes.

IMO - Its the tokenization of things is already happening but its happening quietly behind the scenes at the banks, security institutions, and other entities. They are slowly building out the tech and migrating legacy systems towards internal blockchain systems. Its reducing opex for these major institutions and enabling new classes of products and such that can be sold or serviced. They will develop front end solutions that will be more attractive to the random investor who doesnt understand crypto/blockchain. But it will all be built on those rails. eventually fractional realestate or art or other things will be enabled to be held in your fideltity account via these rails. Who knows it might be 10+ years out still. But i can almost guartee its coming. Eventually the stocks we see in our portfolio will be held digitally on a blockchain network with our fideltities, schawbs, and IBKR's and more. Turns out mainstream doesnt want the liberation of holding their own assets. I'll be curious though if at some point in the future the system does allow for the defi side of things where if you personally want to hold your own keys and take the risk of owning your own assets can you play in the broader ecosystem still and use your broker as the on and off ramp. We will see. But it is still happening IMO.

@rogermunibond I asked it to make a project tracker in google sheets and keep track of projects and status and inputs required and create a scheduled task to review each morning if any changes or new projects need to be added. Does require me to review regularly but helps me keep the rolling project list. I also, have several other scheduled things. It summarizes each weeks worth of emails each weeks and sends me a summary email of the past week with any open things i haven't responded to. I have terrible inbox management. As well as a few other scheduled tasks related to projects i am working on where it updates the spreadsheets and or documents and sends me reminder emails to go review them and provide inputs.

Im not a "professional developer" but a hobbiest and I pay personally $200 a month for the top tier of gemini ultra. I have vibecoded about 6 apps now from super simple to moderately complex. These are things I would never had the time or aptitude to develop on my own and wouldn't have been worth paying a developer to do. But now I can accomplish these projects while watching youtube and project managing the agents. I see no future in which I dont pay for strong AI models. Gemini Ultra comes with spark beta too. Which has bene super cool. Its kind of like having an executive assistant in my google workspaces. It actually drafts emails for me in my inbox. schedules stuff for me. I can task it with research or objectives and it does the tasks for me or creates documents in sheets/docs/slides for me. Ive been rather impressed with its outputs and multistep reasoning vs just asking questions to gemini in chat.

I don't really give a ____ when i look at my short term returns and they are negative. That doesnt mean i dont look at it regularly and wish that the "thesis" would play out faster. Markets would recognize ADBE is the creative operating system for all enterprises. That Berkowitz would let the sell pressure rise faster for JOE. So the manamgent execution could shine instead of having his black cloud of selling over it. That my otc microcaps could get noticed for how sexy they are. But i know what I own and Im cool with whatever the market wants to rate them at.

I tend to make quite concentrated bets and it causes a lot of volatility in the YoY metrics. Down this year due to being heavily concentrated in ADBE. but i have long strong conviction and in some future period it will have an outsided return. Or who knows a few years from now ill be down 75% and ADBE will be at a PE of < 3 because AI is killing it while revenue continues to grow at 10% and i will continue to cry myself to sleep.

haha i can do that already. I have all my financial institutions pushing via API into google big query. and have created a google gem called family CFO that can analyze probably 80%+ of my financial picture at almost any given time. I have been a big fan of journaling through my life and find a good amount of benefit from writing down my own thought. Granted my own writing style and grammar sucks so ive often taken to having AI rewrite things for me so they are more coherent to others. I think the exercise of writing my own thoughts on my investments on an annual basis would have some really solid merit from a self reflection standpoint.

LoL who used AI to write it? is AI quote you and goldman used AI to help? or are you using AI and AI is quoting goldman? or are both of you using AI and its quoting another source? or is it the biggest wtf moment of all time lol. Or hell maybe hes lurking on the forum quoting your ass haha

GOOG

I like this idea. Never thought about doing that.

I don't monitor CAGR or total return. But i once heard the phrase "money is a fickle mistress, if you don't pay attention to her she'll leave you." While the exact % return or CAGR isn't overly important to me. I dont feel like i could ever stop "paying attention" to where my money is at and what is it doing.

Yea i was deep in micron with cost basis less that $50. I felt good about my triple never dreamed it woulda been a 1T+ company. I even beleived the argument that all the AI would fill up all the storage but didnt think it would have a backlog driving them anywhere near what we are seeing now. I still have a very small position that Ill probably just let ride and see what happens.

Funny that i have a very large % ADBE position but don't pay for them. Funny enough. I integrated my AI agent with a MCP for GIMP this week. So now i can tell my agent to edit stuff and It opens GIMP on my computer and starts editing the image there. Instead of just "attempting to regenerate a new image" with nano banana or whatever. Im 100% confident this is underway with ADBE to where they will make a MCP that is callable via API's to paying customers that charges on a token system that will enable your AI generated image to get cleaned up at the pixel level using their software suite. There will always be cheap chumps like me using GIMP. But ADBE will remain and it will become standard and more robust within all enterprises. the freemium offerings are just to ensure that new rising generation of workers continue to stay in and close to the ADBE ecosystem.

I recently listened to a podcast that perfectly captured where we are today: we are currently in the "command line" era of AI. Everything is in its infancy and exploratory phase. The technology relies on us forcing static prompts into isolated models, doing the heavy lifting of copy-pasting and workflow coordination ourselves. But the truly interesting phase is going to happen when the infrastructure layer—the chips, power, cooling, and data centers—finally stabilizes. Once these physical bottlenecks clear, the market value will inevitably migrate upward, splitting into a few distinct waves: The Agentic Orchestration Plane: Autonomous software layers that act as the hands and feet for AI, plugging directly into the deep, messy, legacy systems that actually run global enterprises. Proprietary Data Fabrics: High-performance retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) networks that monetize proprietary, domain-specific data context rather than raw, commoditized computing power. Verticalized AI-Native SaaS: Hyper-specialized software giants scaling up usage and adoption within their own niche verticals, moving from seat-based licenses to full task automation. There is a investment arbitrage sitting in the market right now. Because Wall Street is looking at this through a clouded window, it is pricing many SaaS giants like dying, low-margin utilities. The market is completely blind to how early this cycle is, and is missing the impending transition of these software platforms profitable, consumption based autonomous execution engines. While the hardware grid is heavily priced in, the data, orchestration, and security layers quite attractive as everyone is chasing the capex in semi's and datacenters.

God i love how you can simplify thoughts into such a blunt object. #gregisrighttoday

To add when it comes to heavy concentrated positions I only see 2 real reasons to be this concentrated. Your chasing extreme returns. You have extreme conviction in the company. Maybe you should ask yourself questions around why am I so concentrated in "SaaSco" I usually wont go super deep into a company unless I have extreme conviction in my analysis. It still hurts to be early. But i often feel like I'm having this conversation with my devils advocate in my head. I often feel like burry where i cite the numbers and I'm like the numbers don't make sense the market must be wrong. so i just keep holding. The volatility doesn't bother me. But i do read and seek lots of material for my opposite hypothesis. I don't want to be blinded by bullishness to where I hold into the ground. I have abandoned a few concentrated in the past after admitting to myself that my analysis was wrong.

I cry on the inside. But know the numbers and story of the company up and down. Then I remind myself that markets are irrational and in no world would the company be taken private for the current valuation/marketcap. Then i go to sleep with a hope and prayer that the market will recognize how dumb the valuation is tomorrow. Usually I don't take these positions unless i have really strong conviction. but I am dumb enough to put 75-80% of my eggs in one basket on more than one occasion. Conviction is probably the biggest piece for me. Doesn't make it more enjoyable but it make holding easier.

Service Now posted strong earnings boosting confidence that AI is not killing Software.

Funny thing is. I've been trying to better understand just how vulnerable SaaS is by getting in and doing it myself. Ive now made 3 apps... (stopmotion video app, Bi-Lingual Chinese Storybook App, Snake game app) Its bizzarely easy. Ive come to the conclusion that I will never again pay for a simple app that does something simple. Though the chinese storybook is getting more and more complex layering in more and more layers and the code gets more and more complex and AI for as smart and dumb as it is makes a change but the change screws all the lower layers. and it ends up rewriting large portions of the code cuz it doensnt know how to make simple changes. So if you take this towards the SAP developer or a larger enterprise software with tons and tons of layers. AI does not destroy this easily. For these its an enabler. The code is only as good as the engineer / project manager that can direct to AI effectively. Critical thinking, planning, structure, and execution become more of the driver than the "code" itself. People who can learn these layers of framework will be the valuable employees. The developer role changes now more into a PM who can read and understand the code and understand software architecture more than just a straight "coder" IMO - AI is just an enabler for all these mega softwares. They will keep the best of their developers and software architects and be able to use AI to scale features and clear bugs faster. Not to mention distribution of said software/product. So wierdly im still bullish on AI as an enabler of SaaS even when i can see how easy it is to spool up new apps and software's.

Oof...

Yea, im not sold on the bubble idea either. Im more on the @Cod Liver Oil opinion that its a bit of a mixed bag by sector. Lots of sectors that look quite attractive.

I like Ren. Hadnt heard that Ren song b4. Thx for sharing @rkbabang

I have had it generate several ideas for me that I didnt put any money in and it makes me sad sometimes. biggest example VRT. I asked over a year ago what are some companies that will benefit from the AI wave that are lesser known and value may not be fully baked in. It told me about VRT in the cooling space and several others. I read a bunch of stuff on VRT but ultimately decided to pass. Wish i had thrown a few % at it. I have a hard time buying things that just keep going up. I like it for broad category ideas. then i can go thumb through names. I mostly use AI to look for opposite opinions and argue with me about my thesis's I like to try and defend my investments to make me feel like ive really done my homework and feel confident in the case regardless of what Mr. Market wants to ascribe value to.

IMO many software names are asymmetric right now. If you don't believe that AI is gonna crush software. which I dont.

All 5 of mine (with 2 sets of twins were IVF)