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Viking

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  1. The dividend paid in Q1 will also be reducing BV by $10 when they report.
  2. Nice to see Fairfax starting to outperform expectations. This makes it two quarters in a row. And the beats have been significantly better (not just a little). 1.) insurance: 96%CR is good; growth of 17% is very good 2.) net gains on investments is very good 3.) fair value of associates and consolidated stocks (in aggregate) is now comfortably over carrying value. This makes reported book value more meaningful (and lessens the need for the stock to sell below book value). And the equity holdings (in aggregate) do not look crazy overvalued at March 31 prices... lots more upsid
  3. I understand the value of the site and will support whatever you decide. Ads do not both me. Paying a monthly/annual fee also does not bother me. I just hope any changes you make supports new people coming to the site and becoming active members (perhaps first 6 months for free). Enough time for new people to become engaged and part of the community. Once they are hooked you will have them for many years...
  4. Attached below is a spreadsheet that captures the value of Fairfax India's publicly traded equity holdings at March 31. They were up US $331 million (35%) in Q1 to $1,267 million = an increase of $2.21/share. Not too shabby. BV at Dec 31 was $16.37. When Fairfax India reports Q1 earnings we should see a nice increase in BV to perhaps around $18/share, a new record high. Shares look cheap to me currently trading at $12.45. I was adding to my position late last week. Fairfax India is also in the process of IPO'ing three holdings: Seven Islands, Sanmar and Anchorage (BIAL). Once compl
  5. Greg, I agree. It looks to me like the US housing party is just getting started In Canada for single family homes we have record high demand, record low supply and record low mortgage rates. Any one of these three variables being in record territory would cause house prices to increase. Until ALL 3 normalize i think single family home prices will continue to move higher. And i do not see ANY of the 3 factors normalizing until later in 2021 or even 2022 (until covid is in the rear view mirror). So prices will continue to set records. We are seeing the impact of record low inte
  6. To add another example: we bought our 4 bed house in suburbs of Vancouver (Langley) in 2010 for a little over $600,000. We sold it last week for over $1,300,000. (28 year old house with lots of original stuff that will need to be replaced soon - windows, plumbing, bathrooms, kitchen, garage door etc; my estimate is it will need about +$80,000 in improvements in the next 5 years.) It was listed on a Wed. Showings were Fri, Sat and Sun (17 in total). Offers accepted Mon at 4pm. We had 7 offers and 6 were subject free. We received about 6% over ask. $100,000 deposit (bank draft attached
  7. Fairfax India, similar to Fairfax, has been a tough buy and hold stock for investors. However, trading at $12.60 today the stock, at current levels, looks cheap to me. I only have a very small position but would be happy more on weakness (I still own a bunch of Fairfax). The good news is the equities in Fairfax India that are publicly traded are on fire. As a result book value will be up significantly in Q1. The near term challenge with Fairfax India is BIAL. Not sure how fast airport travel will pick up in 2021 but it makes sense to me it will take 12-18 months to get back to the
  8. Attached below is my tracking file for Fairfax equity positions updated for March 31 stock prices. Please note, I have NOT updated any of the positions to reflect information in the AR (hoping to do this in May). I also added Farmers Edge and Boat Rocker but need to confirm shares owned by Fairfax. Fairfax saw an increase of about $1.5 billion = US$60/share (pre-tax). About $20 of the total is market to market and $40 is associates/consolidated. This is similar to what I came up with for Q4 and Fairfax blew that number out of the water when they reported results; so my guess is my estima
  9. Vancouver and Toronto are 2 very different cities on opposite ends of the country. Have you ever tried living in either? It's basically like Chicago/NYC vs Seattle. I purchased a home outside of Vancouver in December. I had to put in a bully offer 4 hours after the property was listed, after getting outbid on a number of other properties. Since then the market has apparently gotten even crazier with fewer listings on the market. The vacancy rate in the city I purchased is currently under 1%. Logically one would think it is a good time to pick up a condo in downtown Toronto with the mass
  10. I took 2 things away from this. 1. Your life sounds very nice and congratulations on this set up. Sounds like a great family setup and overall lifestyle. 2. Holy shit, I knew Canada housing was expensive but that is another level of insanity. That’s like less half the gross rental yield in my area, and many would consider housing in wealthy suburban DC to be “expensive”. From a financial perspective, the housing market in areas like Vancouver and Toronto is predicated on continuing price appreciation. For buyers at todays prices to make money they need to see continued price apprec
  11. I think the same thing has happened in Vancouver; rents have come down quite a bit year over year. However, the provincial government has announced that all universities will be full in class instruction in the fall (no online or hybrid) so demand from domestic and international university students will spike demand for rentals. Once travel opens up (further down the road) the Airbnb supply (converted to rentals because of covid) will be taken out of the rental market. So my guess is it will take 6 to 12 months for supply to get tight and prices (rents) to spike. The challenge for landlord
  12. My guess is crazy low interest rates are THE key driver of this current mania. Currently in Canada you can get a 5 years fixed rate mortgage (the norm in Canada) for about 2%. Historic low (about). And central banks have confirmed rates will be kept crazy low until at least 2023. So my guess is prices will continue higher and perhaps much higher. Covid has crated a situation where a whole bunch of things are happening at the same time creating a record spike in prices. Over the next 3 to 6 months, as Covid is hopefully brought under control and we return to a more normal situation, the ques
  13. My rule of thumb is if you are going to be living in the area long term then buying is an ok option. The key is ‘fit’: personal and financial. Below are details of how my wife and i went through this process. My wife and i have recently decided to move (Langley to North Dunbar area of Vancouver). We will be renting a 4 bedroom house ($5,000/mo) and selling our house in Langley. (For interest, it costs about $3-$3,500 to rent a 4 bedroom house in Langley - located in the suburbs - about 60 minute drive from downtown Vancouver.) The house we will be renting is worth about $2.7 million. We
  14. The picture you attached to your post made my laugh like hell. Nice lid :-)
  15. Agreed. However, there are some years when Fairfax will grow BV by 15%. There are 2 key drivers to Fairfax being able to hit 15%: 1.) insurance underwriting 2.) investment results - especially equities Given the hard market in insurance and how they are positioned today with their equity holdings i think they can hit BV growth of 15% in 2021 :-)
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