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nwoodman

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nwoodman last won the day on February 7

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  1. Thanks @SafetyinNumbers. It all appears like the dark arts to me, especially the committee’s discretion. I understand that rebalancing is done quarterly, however could I trouble you to point me to where it specifically states that tomorrow is the decision making day? Index inclusion is hardly central to the FFH thesis but I find the discretionary aspect a bit of an eye opener as far as indexing more generally https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-tsx-canadian-indices.pdf S&P/TSX 60 Methodology The S&P/TSX 60 is a subset of the S&P/TS Composite. It has 60 constituents and represents Canadian large cap securities with a view to reflecting the sector balance of the S&P/TSX Composite. In using trading data to determine any matter relating to the S&P/TS 60, including index composition and calculations, trading data on the TSX and U.S. exchanges is reviewed. Additions to the S&P/TSX 60 To be eligible for inclusion in the S&P/TSX 60 index, securities must be constituents of the S&P/TSX Composite. When adding securities to the S&P/TS 60 index, the Index Committee generally selects amongst the larger securities, in terms of float QMV, in the S&P/TS Composite. Size may, however, be overridden for purposes of sector balance as described in item 4 below. When adding securities to the S&P/TS 60 index, the Index Committee generally selects securities with float turnover of at least 0.35. This is a guideline only and may be changed at the discretion of the Index Committee. In addition, this range may be overridden for purposes of sector balance described in item 4 below. Security selection for the S&P/TSX 60 index is conducted with a view to achieving sector balance that is reflective of the GICS sector weights in the S&P/TSX Composite. Minimum index turnover is preferable. Changes are made to the S&P/TSX 60 index on an as needed basis. The most common cause of deletion is merger or acquisition of a company. Other common reasons for deletion include bankruptcy, restructuring or other corporate actions. If a company substantially fails to meet one or more of the aforementioned guidelines for inclusion or if a company fails to meet the rules for continued inclusion in the S&P/TS Composite, it is removed. The timing of removals is at the discretion of the Index Committee.
  2. Not trying to labour this but genuinely interested as to when a company that has a top 30 market cap gets included in a diversified national index comprising 60 companies.
  3. I have been using this for a while too. It’s very difficult to go back to normal search, that’s for sure. The potted questions are a bit hit and miss at times but the referencing is brilliant. For technical engineering searches it has proved invaluable and easily justifies its cost. For investment research it is OK to good. It sometimes dives into filings but more often than not gives the usual lazy Chat GPT response eg. “one would typically look into annual reports, SEC filings, and other detailed investor communications that outline the company's strategic investment decisions over time. However, these details are not provided in the current search results”
  4. Spot on! “The Warrants and the Preferred Securities were originally issued on April 26, 2017. Prior to the Transaction, Fairfax directly or indirectly owned or controlled an aggregate of no Common Shares, 6,670,000 Warrants and $100 million Preferred Securities, which represented 13.94% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares as of April 14, 2022, on a partially diluted basis. Following the completion of the Transaction, Fairfax will directly or indirectly own or control 6,670,000 Common Shares, which represents 13.94% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares as of April 14, 2022, on a non-diluted basis, and Altius will have no outstanding Warrants, Preferred Securities or resulting interest distribution obligations.” https://www.altiusminerals.com/_resources/press-releases/2022-04-14-fairfax-exercise-final-1649938923.pdf?v=0.327
  5. Highly recommend “Boy Swallows Universe’ - Netflix Quirky, dark and uniquely Australian. The 80’s soundtrack was worth it alone. Brought back some great musical memories. Will be watching this one again
  6. MS with a minor upgrade to Eurobank ahead of earnings. Revised PT €2.35 from €2.33 “We update our model ahead of 4Q23 results. We lower opex marginally to incorporate one offs related to floods in 3Q23 and restructuring cost. Our FY23-25 EPS is up by ~1.5% and our PT increases by ~1% to EUR2.35. We remain Overweight. A strong balance sheet means that Eurobank is one of the the most resilient Greek banks in our coverage. We expect performing loans to grow at a ~6% CAGR (pro-forma for Hellenic bank acquisition) in 2023-25. We forecast NIMs to decrease by 2bps in 2024 followed by a 13bps contraction in 2025 (pro-forma for Hellenic bank acquisition), as we expect the rate-cutting cycle to begin in 2Q24, thus driving asset yields lower. 3Q23 NPE ratio stood at 5.0%; we forecast it to reach 3.6% by 2025. We see the Hellenic Bank acquisition as accretive for the bank.” So roughly a $2.5 bn equity position for Fairfax at an earnings yield of 15% for the foreseeable future. Every “little” bit helps. EUROBANK_20240227_1450.PDF
  7. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-acquisition-of-additional-orla-shares-3/ “Orla and brings Fairfax’s total holdings, through its insurance subsidiaries, of such securities to 55,405,229 Common Shares (or approximately 17.58% of all Common Shares).” $3.375 at the time of writing, makes this a $186m position. A bit more than a passing phase. Between Orla and Foran it’s close to $400mn. Throw in the Altius warrants and it is close to $500 mn. Then take the Exco and Occidental positions that’s another $900m or so. Taken as a basket, you could almost argue that commodities is their third big equity idea after Eurobank and Poseidon/Atlas. No idea about Exco, but the others seem to be long life assets and not just cigar butts.
  8. For real? Results were good, but I thought the old boy did a good job of hosing future expectations. This market feels awefully bubbly.
  9. You could always try the EGFEY (ADR) thread. In a nutshell Prem tried to repeat the success with Bank of Ireland. It’s been a hard slog but is working nicely for shareholders now. Their perseverance with Eurobank has been brand accretive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobank_Ergasias
  10. This. I want any forced decision making deferred as long as possible. The current price +/- 10%, growing around 1% per month , for the next 10 years or so, is fine. If it turns out to be 0.25%/week even better.
  11. @Luca Spectacular. Looking to head to Japan next season for some skiing
  12. Market is enjoying the Quess demerger announcement https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/quess-corp-announces-strategic-demerger-a-tripartite-leap-forward
  13. Thanks, I need to do a side-by-side comparison with UMG. Sony's not cheap, but I consider it well-run. It's only a 2% position for me, but set-and-forget. I think they are executing well despite all the handwringing that goes on in the gaming division, a lot of which is misreporting. Take Helldivers 2, for instance; that's a PC/PS5 release that's currently going absolutely ballistic and hopefully alleviating some of the cynicism about live service games. While not my bag, if people are going to game, I think it is better to do it with your mates and have a laugh. Helldivers 2 looks like a hoot
  14. @SafetyinNumbers seems to be the resident expert here. However from what I can gather it is in the hands of the committee because as, as you rightly point out, they meet the following criteria: 1. Market Cap 2. Liquidity and Trading Volume other things that will be considered by the committee are 3. Public Float 4. Financial Health 5. Sector and Industry Representation 6. Compliance and Governance Not sure how the Muddy Water shenanigans affects the process, it shouldn’t but who knows. I will say one thing though the TSX60 has been a real laggard. The demand from Index inclusion would make ideal conditions for unwinding the TRS position.
  15. Discussion on BNN regarding results and the CC. I'm not sure who the grey-haired gentleman is and he is a bit waffly for my money. However, the upshot is a message of 1. They've been here before and survived. 2. Stellar results. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/fairfax-operating-income-jumps~2868708 and another one I think this coverage has been gold.
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