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nwoodman

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  1. Another possible data point. Not even an an insurer just an aggregator https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/01/indian-online-insurer-policybazaar-files-for-ipo-seeks-to-raise-over-800-million/ In papers submitted to the market regulator in India, PolicyBazaar said it is looking to raise $504 million by issuing new shares while the rest will be driven by sale of shares by existing investors. Local media reports said the startup is looking to raise at a valuation of up to $6 billion.
  2. I am quite bullish on Digit but a $200m raise that in turn gives a $3.5bn mark is still price discovery lite. I remember seeing an interview with Kamesh Goyal, where he indicated the first raise (that got them to unicorn status) was about price discovery. The second raise of $200m, is certainly a little more material but not by much . I don’t recall if the actual % amount that was purchased for 200m was disclosed. Based on the note in the quarterly, and comments in the CC it looks like Fairfax has at least attempted to discount the valuation of the raise a little, which is welcome. “During June 2021, the company's associate Go Digit Infoworks Services Private Limited ("Digit") entered into agreements with certain third party investors whereby its general insurance subsidiary Go Digit Insurance Limited ("Digit Insurance") will raise approximately $200 (14.9 billion Indian rupees) of new equity shares, valuing Digit Insurance at approximately $3.5 billion (259.5 billion Indian rupees) (the "transaction fair value"). The transactions are subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approval, and are expected to close in the third quarter of 2021. The company estimated the fair value of Digit at June 30, 2021 using a probability weighted valuation model, attributing 60% weighting to the fair value determined through an internal discounted cash flow analysis and 40% weighting to the risk-adjusted transaction fair value, which resulted in the company recording a net unrealized gain of $425.0 (inclusive of foreign exchange losses of $13.7) on its investment in Digit compulsory convertible preferred shares. Increasing (decreasing) the weighting of the transaction fair value by 5% would increase (decrease) the net unrealized gain by $54.4 ($54.4). The company also holds a 49.0% equity accounted interest in Digit as described in note 6.” It is still only the 1st innings for Digit, while it is looking good I can understand the market’s reticence. Then again you pay a high price for a cheery consensus as WEB would say.
  3. Thanks again Glider, I have added the IRDAI monthly non-life GWP numbers link to this thread, to make it easier (for me) to find https://www.irdai.gov.in/ADMINCMS/cms/frmGeneral_List.aspx?DF=MBFN&mid=3.2.8 under Home >> Insurers >> General >> Monthly business figures
  4. Investment gains to one side, the insurance results were stellar, Good stuff Fairfax. Agree with Crip, hopefully they have been able to pull the trigger on more share repurchases in July
  5. Thanks for this and all the other posters Greg, Speke, Eric etc. that challenge and provide a contrarian/anti-group think perspective . Equal thanks to Sanj, Viking, Daphnee etc. At the end of the day we will draw our own conclusions but Sanjeev you must be proud to have cultivated this culture. Still superior to ML/AI as far as I am concerned . Looking forward to the earnings release
  6. This is key. From the 2018 AR "I mentioned to you last year that we are focused on buying back our shares over the next ten years as and when we get the opportunity to do so at attractive prices. Henry Singleton from Teledyne was our hero as he reduced shares outstanding from approximately 88 million to 12 million over about 15 years. We began that process by buying back 1.1 million shares since we began in the fourth quarter of 2017 up until early 2019 – about half for cancellation and half for various long term incentive plans we have across our company. This was after we increased our ownership of Brit to 89% from 73% while having the funds ready to increase our ownership of Eurolife from 50% to 80% in August 2019" The next couple of quarters will be key in terms of whether this is just more platitudes. All things considered, I cannot think of when Fairfax's share price has been more attractive. Sure last year was cheaper on a P/B basis but on a relative basis compared to other opportunities it was cheapish. Now compared to other opportunities I think it is a screaming buy. Viking's comments are spot on, "You can't see the future through a rearview mirror". However, managements actions, given the circumstances, will be key for me. Given they were hamstrung last year, the TRS play was a very good start
  7. Kind of amusing really that this sovereign risk craziness kept me out of Chinese stocks all the way through the run up. Then I take a 1% position after the DJCO news, just as max craziness hits. That is the way. It will be interesting to see if this has +ve or -ve correlation to the Indian market.
  8. Looks like the IPO market is running hot in India despite the many challenges. Hopefully augers well for Chemplast Sanmar and Anchorage Zomato Soars 80% in Debut of India’s New Tech Generation Zomato’s first-day performance will serve as a barometer for India’s budding tech scene of unprofitable unicorns, which has produced a coterie of up-and-coming giants from Ant Group Co.-backed Paytm to Walmart Inc.’s Flipkart Online Services Pvt. Also backed by Jack Ma’s Ant, Zomato’s debut comes amid investor concern that India’s markets are a bubble waiting to burst and valuations have outstripped fundamentals. Optimism about India is tempered by one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world, which threatens to erode decades of economic gains. Investors also have to contend with political risks, with Narendra Modi’s government clamping down on foreign retailers, social media giants and streaming companies. For many others, the potential outweighs the downsides. With almost half its 1.3 billion people accessing the internet via smartphones, a bet on Zomato represents optimism that India’s tech upstarts could go the way of the U.S. or China, particularly as India’s internet infrastructure remains nascent and consumers are just getting used to buying online. “This is how it is supposed to work. Nine out of 10 will fail,” Goyal, who is barred from commenting in the run-up to the listing, said in an earlier interview. “But the one that thrives will be a spectacular success.”
  9. Thanks Glider, catching up on some reading and came across your post. This is a fantastic resource What would be great to know is how much of Digit’s market share are new customers to insurance. I have a sneaking suspicion that even though Covid has been diabolical for India, it has introduced a decent set of the population to the need for insurance. Couple this with the low friction option that is Digit and its game on!
  10. Q2 results out and all seems to be heading in the right direction. Strong backlog increase on uptick in aero. PPP term forgiveness to be recorded next quarter but good for 10/8.9=+$1.12/share. Universal Stainless Reports Improved Second Quarter 2021 Results | Universal Stainless, Inc. (univstainless.com) Current Book value: $24.6/share Adjusted for PPP forgiveness = $25.72 P/B: 0.44 Listening to the CC call, really enjoyed this observation from the CEO Dennis Oates: Robert Sales Got it. And Denny, what about an update as you're thinking with the Board on the CFO position and your plans to accommodate what you need from a finance perspective? Dennis Oates Well, I think you should understand that we have a very talented group of financial folks inside the company. We're not going to rush to fill that position. We have brought in folks in the past and pop them into the CFO role, and we end up frankly, and this is my opinion. We end up training folks and they end up in the private equity world taking smaller companies public. So we want it – we believe in promoting from within. We've got a good cast of characters inside the company. We want to give them an opportunity to develop and perhaps have a shot at that chair. So that's kind of where we're at right now. We're working to develop some of our people, our in-house talent that have been with us for a while and deserve a shot at that job.
  11. More FFH for me too. Given information available, just too compelling (for me) to ignore at these levels.
  12. https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-to-buy-500-million-stake-in-brazils-nubank-11623153600 Brazil’s digital bank operator Nu Pagamentos SA said Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B -1.05% agreed to buy $500 million of its shares, as digital banking expands quickly in Latin America’s largest economy. The investment is accompanied by another, $250 million deal that includes various domestic and foreign investors, Nu said. Both deals were signed late Friday and put the company’s value at $30 billion, Nu said. The São Paulo-based, privately held firm operates via its Nubank brand. It is the largest fintech in Latin America and one of the largest in the world, with 40 million users in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, the company said. It has raised around $2 billion since its inception in 2013, Nu said. The company said Berkshire’s is the largest single investment it has ever received. Nu didn’t disclose the size of any investor’s stake. Todd Combs?
  13. Some very sensible observations regarding a lock in but I do hope you are wrong. Jump Prem!. Arch, 1 thousand, 2 thousand, 3 thousand……
  14. More USAP. Not difficult to see a decent ramp in aero as things return to post covid normal. Price target simply book of $20+. Operational leverage is the key https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boeing-general-electric-leap-as-airbus-boosts-production-targets
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