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nwoodman

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nwoodman last won the day on February 7

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  1. It’s probably worth reiterating that the Indian government is selling a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank but it’s still a big number. It will dwarf the likes of Atlas and Eurobank. Given enthusiasm around the Indian thesis at the moment a book build should be more straight forward than even a couple of years ago. While it doesn’t really sit within an Anchorage IPO surely that has to be part of the answer. Prem obviously considers this a bit of a crown jewel, personally I find it a bit formidable. It’s going to be fascinating and I think it speaks volumes about their brand in India if they get the nod.
  2. Kingswell also linked to this, you end up running out of superlatives : "Charlie Munger, who died in November within sight of his 100th birthday on Jan. 1, fell ill at his home in Santa Barbara. When he got to the hospital, a nurse asked him how he was. 'I’m dying,' he said. 'How are you?'" https://diocesela.org/the-bishops-blog/charlie-munger-memorial/
  3. USD 10.9bn and counting, OMERS will be drooling
  4. Thanks for this. Running the numbers through the machine offers the following progressions: Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 2023: 1.82 (Total Borrowings $8,046.7m / Equity $4,415.9m) 2022: 1.47 (Total Borrowings $6,078.6m / Equity $4,128.9m) 2021: 1.41 (Total Borrowings $4,971.1m / Equity $3,517.6m) Interest Coverage Ratio: 2023: 2.08 (OP $782.3m / IE $375.6m) 2022: 3.19 (OP $751.4m / IE $235.4m) 2021: 3.87 (OP $762.2m / IE $197.1m) Return on Assets (ROA): 2023: 2.94% (NP$403.0m / TA$13,713.0m) 2022: 5.51% (NP $622.3m / TA $11,302.4m) 2021: 3.79% (NP $400.5m / TA $10,569.6m) Operating Margin: 2023: 43.0% (OP$782.3m / Revenue $1,820.7m) 2022: 44.3% (OP $751.4m / Revenue $1,697.4m) 2021: 46.3% (OP $762.2m / Revenue $1,646.6m) Net Profit Margin: 2023: 22.1% (NP $403.0m / Revenue $1,820.7m) 2022: 36.7% (NP$622.3m / Revenue $1,697.4m) 2021: 24.3% (NP$400.5m / Revenue $1,646.6m) If interest rates were to decline then this looks to be a counterbalance to the interest income from the bond portfolio. As long as it can remain a profitable single digit grower while they consolidate the industry then that will be a good outcome. Happy to have this grind away and become “surprisingly” accretive later this decade. Edit: other key numbers where the trend is not really your friend, but there may be some timing issues associated with the fleet build out. Ultimately Prem is forecasting 400+m this year and 500m next year, seems plausible. Return on Equity (ROE):2023: 9.43%, 2022: 16.28%, 2021: 11.21% Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 2023: 6.19%, 2022: 7.32%, 2021: 8.11% Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 2023: 6.35%, 2022: 7.54%, 2021: 8.59% From the letter: "Upon completion of Poseidon's containership newbuild program, Poseidon is expected to deliver more than $2.5 billion of revenue and $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA.“ "Poseidon is expected to make net earnings in excess of $400 million in 2024 and $500 million in 2025. We carry our 43% ownership in Poseidon at $1.7 billion – 10x 2024 expected earnings or 8x 2025 expected earnings."
  5. Fascinating. They have alluded to this previously but this is much more granular and removes any doubt as to who the facilitator is. It’s certainly not without its challenges but done well the upside is significant. Fairfax the Facilitator…kind of has that ring to it like “Maximus the Merciful”.
  6. @Crip1 it was more the final line “No technology investment for me!” that we were referring to. No arguments from me in terms of contrition, and even closure on an era.
  7. Agree it was kind of a strange way to conclude. Micron, Ki and even Digit would suggest that it is in their wheelhouse.
  8. Really does read like closure and not just on BlackBerry… “That brings me to a major mea culpa! We began investing in Blackberry in 2010 and helped John Chen become CEO in November 2013 by investing $500 million in a convertible debenture at the same time. Blackberry had come down from $148 per share (down 95%) and had $10 billion in sales. I joined the Board in 2013. Our total investment in BlackBerry early in 2014 was $1.375 billion ($500 million in the convertible and $787 million in common shares). When John joined the company, BlackBerry reported a loss of $1.0 billion - in one quarter and most analysts were predicting bankruptcy! BlackBerry was indeed in difficulty! John saved the company by quickly bringing it to breakeven on a cash basis and then on a net income basis. No CEO worked harder but, unfortunately, John could not make it grow! Revenues for the year ending February 2023 were $656 million. John retired from the company at the end of his contract on November 14, 2023 and I retired from the Board on February 15, 2024. We got our money back on our convertible ($167 million in 2020, $183 million in 2023 and $150 million in 2024) plus cumulative interest income of approximately $200 million. Our common stock position as of 2023 ($162 million or 8% of the company) which was acquired at a cost of $17.16 per share was valued on our balance sheet at $3.54 per share. Another horrendous investment by your Chairman. To make matters worse, imagine if we had invested it in the FAANG stocks! The opportunity cost to you our shareholder was huge! Please don't do the calculation! No technology investment for me!”
  9. Lots to digest but this comment on Atlas/Poseidon was super helpful for me "Poseidon is expected to make net earnings in excess of $400 million in 2024 and $500 million in 2025. We carry our 43% ownership in Poseidon at $1.7 billion – 10x 2024 expected earnings or 8x 2025 expected earnings." Any confirmation that it is going to be accretive and growing is very welcome
  10. Yep, he has stepped it up this year. Touches on just about everything that has been tossed around on this board and more. Outstanding
  11. Agree with you and @Viking on the share count, I grabbed an old spreadsheet from my downloads folder, that will teach me. https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/en/investor-relations/shareholders/shareholding-structure A decent chunk of change that will improve their cashflow dramatically.
  12. Eurobank moving to a 50% payout means close to $200m a year in cash coming to Fairfax. That is staggering. Buffett talks about the Coca Cola dividend, Euro bank will be in that league 1166m shares x €0.15 x 1.09 €/USS = USD 190.6
  13. Eurobank Earnings are out EPS of 0.31 for the year Looking to transition to 50% payout over the next couple of years “In a lower interest rates environment, Eurobank aims to generate resilient returns to shareholders, which will be further enhanced by the full integration of Hellenic Bank in Cyprus, capitalizing on the strong franchise in Greece, organic growth and strategic initiatives in Cyprus and Bulgaria. The ROE' is expected to reach 18% in 2024 and circa 15% beyond 2024, while the payout ratio will gradually increase towards 50% of profits in 20264. Eurobank, as a regional bank with diversified earnings stream, aims to ensure top line growth amid a lower rates environment, with non-Greek operations contributing c. 50% to the Group core profit in 2026. The 2024-2026 financial goals are as follows: https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/enimerosi-ependuton/enimerosi-metoxon-eurobank/oikonomika-apotelesmata-part-01/2023/fy-2023/4q2023-results-pr-eng.pdf Edit: MS take on earnings attached EUROBANK_20240307_1929.PDF
  14. No particular insight but this looks like a “public hanging” to me. Not good, but I can’t see Fairfax stepping with a line of credit if this is more than regulatory violations.
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