bizaro86

By volatility he means implied volatility. That's basically the market's forecast of future volatility expressed through option prices. So if implied volatility goes down option prices will go down (and if IV goes up option prices go up). That has the potential to overwhelm changes in the price of the underlying.

Does he not understand what shorting is, or does he think all short selling is illegal? Either way that's a ridiculous comment.

Gotcha. I sold half my position in early 2012 after a double in ~15 months. Then I bought all those shares back and more at higher prices later... Although in fairness a lot of my current position I bought in March/April 2020, so the sell/reinvest/re-buy worked out not terribly.

Just valuation or any concerns about the business? I have had a big ROST position for a long time and never see much discussion on it. Original shares are now a 10-bagger.

That's a feature not a bug from an investor point of view. As a traveller among the big 3 American miles are clearly the most valuable, then United, then Delta. Since they all likely can charge about the same to their credit card partners, giving the consumer less value per mile is like having higher prices. Delta has convinced customers in various ways (fortress hubs, lounge, service investments) that taking less value than their competitors is still worth it. Basically they're the price leader.

I think the scenario the author imagines (one where a surplus of capital bids down returns on equities for decades) is exactly the situation where you want to own a bunch of capex-heavy businesses. If equities offer a 4% return going forward then plowing the cash pile into 10% ROE projects at BHE and BNSF is hugely attractive.

I'm a bit fuzzy on why there would have been US flagged merchant ships there? Aren't essentially all US flagged ships operating intra-US routes for Jones Act reasons?

Nah, I only have long term holds and I'm keeping them - biggest by far is CNQ. I'm not adding or anything (but would re-allocate within O&G if something got bought out). I think the international majors buy/sells are a great contra-indicator for value in the Canadian oil patch. My biggest concern for CNQ is actually the next time the super-majors decide Canada isn't for them Strathcona is big enough to bid against them for the bargains. Two bidders instead of one has a way of making the price higher.

You could always take the gain and put the money into CNQ - higher current yield and they'll benefit when Shell gets bored again during the next downturn and sells the assets cheap.

If you're looking at it as a donation to the public good then good for you! But any vehicle where the investments will be selected by the government with politics involved seems unlikely to earn premium returns. Maybe it works out if they put their finger on the scale regulatory-wise (eg, if pipelines/mines backed by the fund get easier approvals).

That's way over the line. Totally uncalled for.

I'd be willing to stipulate basketball players are the coolest, and I think you could make a reasonable argument for most athletic. But how to you figure most intelligent? I think baseball is probably the most "thinking" of the major professional sports, and hockey is just as fast/complicated as basketball.

I really like E-L Financial as a permanent/long-term hold. Trades at a big discount to NAV, which is mostly a very diversified portfolio of stocks (eg they have a huge SP500 position). They also own Empire Life, and book value for that is very conservative, if they ever sold it they'd get 1.5x at least imo. Trades at a significant discount to growing book value and have been buying back shares.

They cancelled all the cruises - no passengers aboard.

Yeah, that's just a count of how many AIS transponders move through. If you were going through now you probably turned that off...