Ross812 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Sold TMUS - bought USB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Most E&P / energy companies have disconnected from the weak pricing of WTI recently, which is not something that will continue indefinitely. Are they? Oil price was at this level or lower for long periods from 2016 and oil company prices were higher than now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieV Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I think that E&Ps are just reflecting the dump in oil. Big difference in earnings on a drop from $77 WTI (the YTD average) to $67 WTI (today's price). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Sweet said: Are they? Oil price was at this level or lower for long periods from 2016 and oil company prices were higher than now. That's meaningless. Many energy co's destroyed value from 2015-2020. A lot of them went bankrupt as well, others diluted. If you look at those that did not dilute like XOM, they do indeed trade higher than in 2016. Edited March 15, 2023 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Starter in C. I don’t have any banking positions and am obviously tempted to buy a basket as I become more familiar with the landscape given the current market conditions and sell off. I do have a fairly high allocation to financials between the alt managers and insurance holdings, so I’m trying to gauge my position sizing accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I grabbed a 3-year brokered CD still yielding over 5% off Fidelity's fixed income patform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Bought back some OBE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Started a basket of banks. C, JPM, WFC, PNC, BAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: That's meaningless. Many energy co's destroyed value from 2015-2020. A lot of them went bankrupt as well, others diluted. If you look at those that did not dilute like XOM, they do indeed trade higher than in 2016. It's not meaningless. The disconnect is that the energy sector on any long term measure hasbeen underperforming oil price: From 2015 highs: oil -35%, XOP -65% From 2016: oil +75%, XOP -5% From 2017: oil +29%, XOP -33% From 2018: oil +14%, XOP -22% From 2019: oil +33%, XOP -10% From 2020: oil +24%, XOP +10% Companies did destroy a lot of value and that is certainly part or even most of the reason for the disconnect... but the disconnect is real. But OK, if you believe its pointless to compare with the 2015-2020 period is because of shareholders value destruction, then you should also believe that the material improvement in oil companies balance sheets, dividends, share buybacks etc. should result in energy companies outperforming oil. And these companies obviously should not have a 1:1 relationship with oil if they are making money and producing value for shareholders. Edited March 15, 2023 by Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) Added to SU. Starter positions CNQ, JPM, MS, WRB. - not much has changed with oil from a fundamental perspective. Sentiment stinks. Love one day 10% declines in stocks when it is being driven by sentiment. Edited March 15, 2023 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) Built out a portfolio of Canadian high dividend payers. 5% of my portfolio. Average dividend yield is 5.8%. With interest rates cratering, my guess is dividend paying stocks are positioned very well. Will build this out on stock market declines. - Communication: T.TO, BCE - Banks: RY, BNS, CM, CWB - Utilities: ENB, TRP - Life insurer: SLF Edited March 15, 2023 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 DPSGY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minseok Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 SU, CNQ, CVE, STLC 3% each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dipod Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 SPY $400 3/24 calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rustycage Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 BN & DRM.TO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) 17 hours ago, Sweet said: It's not meaningless. The disconnect is that the energy sector on any long term measure hasbeen underperforming oil price: From 2015 highs: oil -35%, XOP -65% From 2016: oil +75%, XOP -5% From 2017: oil +29%, XOP -33% From 2018: oil +14%, XOP -22% From 2019: oil +33%, XOP -10% From 2020: oil +24%, XOP +10% Companies did destroy a lot of value and that is certainly part or even most of the reason for the disconnect... but the disconnect is real. But OK, if you believe its pointless to compare with the 2015-2020 period is because of shareholders value destruction, then you should also believe that the material improvement in oil companies balance sheets, dividends, share buybacks etc. should result in energy companies outperforming oil. And these companies obviously should not have a 1:1 relationship with oil if they are making money and producing value for shareholders. XOP is an index where many small E&P from 2016 went bankrupt. XLE is more large cap and higher quality, so there are way less bankruptcies and impairment in XLE. Thats why XLE has outperformed XOP. The stocks that went to zero remain a zero, there is no recovery. The ones that diluted at the bottom get a partial recovery. The companies that did not dilute and made it through are business like CVX or XOM trade at higher prices than in 2016. Edited March 16, 2023 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aurel Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 added MBB SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: XOP is an index where many small E&P from 2016 went bankrupt. XLE is more large cap and higher quality, so there are way less bankruptcies and impairment in XLE. Thats why XLE has outperformed XOP. The stocks that went to zero remain a zero, there is no recovery. The ones that diluted at the bottom get a partial recovery. The companies that did not dilute and made it through are business like CVX or XOM trade at higher prices than in 2016. Of course. I’m not referring to the quality difference between XLE and XOP and how that affects how oil companies track oil prices. Rather the belief that energy companies must move in lock step with oil. If companies are managed well, they should disconnect from oil prices relative to the companies characteristics. I think we are saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) Bought a bit of $FNF this AM. New position. I think refinance activity is going to pick up after the recent treasury declines and title insurers benefit from this. I am not too exited about their annuity business $FG but it is what it is. Maybe I can even get my $JXN back around $30. These stocks really trade all over the place. Edited March 16, 2023 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Added TD to my bank basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 4% position is XLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I bought some more BN for both my portfolios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I also added heavily to TSMC the last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Over the past week I have added to oxy, Ntdoy, brk, mkl, and Rmax for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 (edited) CLPR Edited March 17, 2023 by CorpRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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