Intelligent_Investor

Micron going parabolic is more luck than anything even if they held. The shortages didn't really start until fairly recently and before that the industry for DRAM wasn't really the best in terms of economics. No one even 3 years ago would have predicted that DRAM would still be sold out at prices multiple of the prior ATH

I think the bottom line is unless they do something massively stupid, solid underwriting should bring about decent returns...Progressive has shown solid underwriting + bond returns can bring market beating returns.

The market has lost its damn mind with AI...Adobe tanked because AI was gonna replace them due to all their customers going and using AI and then analysts found most Adobe customers don't use AI features, so the stock went down even more because now it's not an AI stock...

If you are just trying to match S&P there is no point in managing 50 2% positions, just buy VOO and call it a day...just sell a small% if you need cash

Don't own anything in a concentrated portfolio you wouldn't be comfortable owning if the market is closed for a decade. 2% position is pointless for individual positions, at that point just buy index funds.

Was expecting a bit more buybacks, but hopefully they stay aggressive

They just need to put the word "AI" in their AR and the stock will start ripping and trade up to 2x book or more

He sounds like either a troll or someone who has vendetta against Fairfax...maybe because he lost money or missed out on gains.

Probably going to try and buy some SpaceX puts on IPO.

Imo value traps isn't the problem, it was the equity hedges. They are a great insurance company and other great insurance companies invest in only bonds and get great returns. They can be very average at investing and still outperform. They just can't put on equity hedges that kill their returns when the S&P is ripping 15% a year for a decade

Maybe he means Greg is buying the SpaceX IPO

The bottom line is if a 20% decline in stocks materially changes your QOL, you shouldn't own stocks. Otherwise, you should be okay with just holding the stock (or buying more). Selling shouldn't be considered unless the facts change around the company's prospects. Should be something that takes about 30 seconds of mental energy before you move on.

The complex and nuanced situation is if you can't handle a 10-20% correction from an ATH just a mere few months ago, you shouldn't own individual stocks and just buy the index. Selling shouldn't even be crossing your mind...

The answer is buy more lol, you are overcomplicating this and getting emotional about returns. As Charlie Munger said, if you aren't able to handle your stock investments declining by 50% once every few decades you shouldn't own stocks. I'd assume most of us are wealthy enough to not be on the streets with a 20% down year...

There likely aren't any that will move the needle. I don't know of many $100b family businesses

While idk if the stock price is yet at "back up the truck" levels of repurchases, the truck should be in reverse gear right now at current prices.

At current prices and prospects, I'd prefer Fairfax for a longer term investment. If Berkshire/Greg get the opportunity to do massive repurchases, that could change the dynamics, especially if Berkshire can shrink meaningfully.

Hopefully they're buying back truckloads of stock at current prices

Buffett's problem is Berkshire is so big anything that will make a difference on Berkshire's return to shareholders would require a position size in the tens of billions. To stay under ownership thresholds, that essentially eliminates even most of the S&P 500 companies. Berkshire's investable universe is probably like 50 stocks total and then you eliminate everything not in Warren or Greg's circle of competence and you might get 15-20 companies. Everything else would be a rounding error on Berkshire's results

The problem with PE is that it cannot accurately value something with compounding growth. It is basic math meant to value something with zero growth and a bondlike payout

Idk why anyone with choice would choose Delta as a rewards program, its objectively the worst of the Big 3 to the point you don't want to hold Delta Skypesos because they devalue so hard.

2022 was one of the best years ever for value investors. Hell, just loading up on big tech you would've made a killing.

The problem with all airlines is that they are fucked from an operational leverage perspective with fuel prices, unless the thinking is that airline customers aren't price sensitive and will eat any price increases. But with the world economy on the brink of major issues, that doesn't seem like a high probability bet. Baffling why Berkshire would go back into airlines given how it went last time...

Yeah,I think if this happened with a Berkshire board member, Warren would've asked them to resign the next day. He has no tolerance for even the appearance of impropriety

I think both Warren and Charlie at the end of their run realized if Berkshire was going to continue to outperform, they would need to invest more in relatively capital light, high ROE business like tech, hence the recent Google purchase. Charlie even said as much before he passed. I think that was probably part of the reason Warren decided to retire as well - he realized the investments needed to keep Berkshire a better choice than the S&P 500 was outside his own circle of competence which made it make sense to pass the reigns to the next generation that has a better shot at understanding those businesses.