Intelligent_Investor

While idk if the stock price is yet at "back up the truck" levels of repurchases, the truck should be in reverse gear right now at current prices.

At current prices and prospects, I'd prefer Fairfax for a longer term investment. If Berkshire/Greg get the opportunity to do massive repurchases, that could change the dynamics, especially if Berkshire can shrink meaningfully.

Hopefully they're buying back truckloads of stock at current prices

Buffett's problem is Berkshire is so big anything that will make a difference on Berkshire's return to shareholders would require a position size in the tens of billions. To stay under ownership thresholds, that essentially eliminates even most of the S&P 500 companies. Berkshire's investable universe is probably like 50 stocks total and then you eliminate everything not in Warren or Greg's circle of competence and you might get 15-20 companies. Everything else would be a rounding error on Berkshire's results

The problem with PE is that it cannot accurately value something with compounding growth. It is basic math meant to value something with zero growth and a bondlike payout

Idk why anyone with choice would choose Delta as a rewards program, its objectively the worst of the Big 3 to the point you don't want to hold Delta Skypesos because they devalue so hard.

2022 was one of the best years ever for value investors. Hell, just loading up on big tech you would've made a killing.

The problem with all airlines is that they are fucked from an operational leverage perspective with fuel prices, unless the thinking is that airline customers aren't price sensitive and will eat any price increases. But with the world economy on the brink of major issues, that doesn't seem like a high probability bet. Baffling why Berkshire would go back into airlines given how it went last time...

Yeah,I think if this happened with a Berkshire board member, Warren would've asked them to resign the next day. He has no tolerance for even the appearance of impropriety

I think both Warren and Charlie at the end of their run realized if Berkshire was going to continue to outperform, they would need to invest more in relatively capital light, high ROE business like tech, hence the recent Google purchase. Charlie even said as much before he passed. I think that was probably part of the reason Warren decided to retire as well - he realized the investments needed to keep Berkshire a better choice than the S&P 500 was outside his own circle of competence which made it make sense to pass the reigns to the next generation that has a better shot at understanding those businesses.

Doubt it, until the liability concerns around autonomous are resolved. If the computer is driving the car and kills someone who is responsible? There could still be lots of liability there. Additionally, my experience with self driving tech is that it is not necessarily "safer" than better human drivers...in fact a self driving vehicle, at least consumer grade, would likely score very low on most insurance telematics. They frequently brake or accelerate hard, and would appear the same profile as an extremely reckless human driver - they also seem programmed to follow very closely behind other vehicles.

FRFHF and some ADBE, but mostly FRFHF

No, Berkshire just got too big. Hard to generate 30% returns on $1 trillion without buying massive stakes in big tech....

Physically he seems like he rambles a bit more than before. Probably because his mouth needs to catch up to his brain, which still seems to be sharp as ever.

Warren visibly slowing down

AIG went bust during the Financial Crisis, I wouldn't trust their risk management to not blow themselves up again

Honestly, I think over the next decade or two the largest driver of returns at Berkshire will be how many shares they can repurchase. Don't see much room for market beating returns just from the existing businesses or the investments if they are intent on holding large amounts of cash

Doubt they added much to Google as its no longer cheap anymore.

Even if it is a free ride, us Americans need to accept that its the price we need to pay for global domination. Perhaps the question needs to be if the strategy of global domination is the right one, but if we believe that is the right strategy than this has to be a price we are willing to pay to extract the benefit.

My Fidelity limit orders went through fine

Most likely geopolitical concerns with the recent Trump rhetoric

This was never about oil to America, it was about cutting China's oil supply. VZ supplies lots of oil to China

Berkshire's biggest problem over the last decade and a half has been the "fed put". Warren's biggest opportunity for deploying massive amounts of capital went away and the phone calls dried up because there was a bigger fish out there with unlimited capacity for investment in times of crisis. Now the gold rain never comes.

I mean Warren and Charlie did say that they should have bought Google way earlier and that was one of their biggest mistakes. If it is Warren he probably realized there isn't really a better investment within his circle of competence that can move the needle for Berkshire. Charlie in his later years did basically say that if Berkshire wanted to continue doing better than average they would eventually need to own tech in some capacity given how much tech drives the market these days.

Charlie didn't need to own GOOG in DJCO because he was invested in Himalya Capital which has owned a lot of GOOG over the years. MSFT Buffett understood the business model very early on and agreed it was one of the best businesses out there that could be run with minimal capital, he was just way too cautious at the time on the computer/internet industry. Basically said he wasn't going invest because he didn't understand computers well enough.