Spooky

+1. This is the right advice.

Let's say you're right and there is a fiscal crisis in the US which leads to hyperinflation like in Argentina or the Weimar Republic - you certainly do not want to be in cash or bonds. You want to own real assets like real estate or companies that have pricing power.

+1

Feels like the narrative is shifting. Becky from HR isn't vibecoding...

Buy the S&P 500 when the equity risk premium is above 6%! 2020 was a great buying opportunity. Just another data point showing the general market is not very attractive. Agree on looking for individual companies, it is what I said to Blake earlier in the thread. Putting some money into treasuries could make sense as well.

It’s the gap between the S&P 500’s earnings yield (inverse of P/E ratio) and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Here is the full WSJ article the chart is from: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-risk-premium-for-holding-stocks-over-bonds-is-vanishing-95be5b9d?st=TUqyPP&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Equity risk premium basically gone.

It's a little sad. I would have loved to own some Space X before it was merged into twitter and xAi as a pure play space exploration company (at a reasonable valuation of course).

Yea, this stuff is troubling to me. Also some reports they want to bend the rules to allow the SpaceX / Anthropic IPOs into the S&P 500.

Can it really scale exponentially though if there are real world / physical constraints like building data center capacity / chips etc.?

No one is saying you need to be fully invested in the S&P 500. In fact, most people are saying to pick certain parts of the market to focus on. There are lots of great companies available at reasonable prices. Given what is happening with AI I would be terrified to be completely out of the market. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand and pointless in the grand scheme of things.

I mean it is shiny. It's crazy to me that we are in the middle of a technological revolution on the scale of the printing press and people want to bet on a rock.

Super interesting. Despite the huge run-up all my gold bug / hard money friends still think this is just early innings. No one talks about a bubble in gold despite the fact that there is no way to tell if gold is cheap or expensive.

. Well played

Man, I miss 2022, it was like shooting fish in a barrel.

Why not just buy Fairfax at a roughly 10 p/e that is buying back lots and lots of stock? Or Berkshire with 40% market cap in t-bills. If you have a 20-30 year time horizon I would probably also just hold my nose and buy the S&P 500. Based on historical data, there has never been a 30-year period where the S&P 500 (or its proxy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average) has had a negative total return.

Both companies down bigly today.

All this debt is someone else's asset.

Market doesn't seem that enthused by the combination judging by the decline in the stock prices since announcement although the decrease is fairly small.

I agree with the sentiments expressed by others. Lots of pockets of the market are overlooked or left for dead. Just avoid the hottest stocks of the day and you'll be fine.

Oh interesting. Guess it makes sense they would lock up Fairfax before making the announcement.

Market reaction to the Orla / Equinox announcement pretty muted. Wonder what Fairfax as one of the major shareholders thinks.

At work we have access to Deepseek through Microsoft Foundry and it is hosted locally in the Microsoft Azure tenant so is considered a 1st party model. Pretty crazy. We also have access to like 20+ LLMs so it feels to me this layer will be commoditized.

Agree with Sharper, just make sure that you don't break residency with Canada. The deemed disposition rules suck, especially if you are closer to retirement + plus any dividends etc. earned in the TFSA will be taxed in the new country of residence.