What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Ha!  No thoughts on NVDA personally, but I can't be the only one out there that has had a big 'ole downtrend line drawn on Apple for over a year and there went the stock price right into it and stopped going up.  Look out if it breaks higher though.  It looks like a popular line in the sand to draw.

I’ve added “financial professionals opining on valuations” to the list of folks to either ignore or point and laugh at. As a group, they’ve clearly demonstrated that there’s no correlation in terms of what they think something should trade for, and where it eventually does. More cynically, their opinions really seem to just be marketing material or ego caressing attention grabs. 

[dealraker]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I’ve added “financial professionals opining on valuations” to the list of folks to either ignore or point and laugh at. As a group, they’ve clearly demonstrated that there’s no correlation in terms of what they think something should trade for, and where it eventually does. More cynically, their opinions really seem to just be marketing material or ego caressing attention grabs. 

Wow Greg...you mean you aren't in awe of someone like Bloomstran ----  who routinely assaults Cathie Woods while citing the never attained value he claims Berkshire is worth along with listing in detail the out-performance of the stocks he owns for the last 10 years...all while his fund (of course) never keeps up with the indexes?    How dare you be so radical?

[Gregmal]

15 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Wow Greg...you mean you aren't in awe of someone like Bloomstran ----  who routinely assaults Cathie Woods while citing the never attained value he claims Berkshire is worth along with listing in detail the out-performance of the stocks he owns for the last 10 years...all while his fund (of course) never keeps up with the indexes?    How dare you be so radical?

They all must be mocked equally. I especially enjoy how much rage the underperforming value bros throw at Cathie. Deep down, they know she’s superior to them…the goal for neither is to really compound, but make money. And Cathie’s biz just had a run like few ever had and it eats at those fucks which is why she gets so much hate. Would I ever invest with her? Hell no. Although I’d consider investing in the parent company who generates fees off the crazy ARKs. But girl has a fuckin business and a brand, thats for sure. Someone like Hussman? Not so much. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

Like all the “ma calculators and excel sheets prove her Tesla work is total bullshit!” bros…….it’s like yo, brotha, didn’t you call it a short and have a $30 price target on it…..in like 2015? At least she got the direction correct lol. We all know both of you are just guessing on where it ends up and when that happens…but Ken Griffin appreciates your business.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Gregmal

[CorpRaider]

On 4/4/2023 at 12:11 PM, Spooky said:

 

There was a recent Odd lots podcast saying that the golden age of being a landlord is over as well as some articles in bloomberg about it.

To be fair the golden age of being a landlord was probably during Feudalism.

Edited April 5, 2023 by CorpRaider

[Luca]

Thanks for the entertainment, had a laugh in the train @Gregmal @CorpRaider

[Parsad]

I haven't bought anything since I was buying tech stocks.  Now I'm starting to nibble on a few different retailers.  Why?

 

Many retailers remain significantly undervalued due to the pandemic, interest rates, evolution of retail, etc.  But, a lot of them have paid down debt that they accumulated during the pandemic, sales have rebounded back closer to pre-pandemic levels, employment and incomes remain strong, and inflation/interest rates are slowing. 

 

Some pay very decent dividends, are trading at single digit multiples and remain battered because of commercial real estate risks.  But if you own the land and buildings, commercial property risks mean little.  They've also made huge progress in underlying operating expenses and inventory that had to be reduced over the last couple of years.  Many have also increased their online sales during that same time.  They are also not exposed to the same type of margin compression that say restaurants would be exposed to where food costs continue to be very high.

 

Cheers!

[LC]

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

[KPO]

3 hours ago, LC said:

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

I don’t love retail, and don’t own any yet, but BBY is starting to get interesting at a >8% free cash yield, 4.9% dividend yield and net cash of ~$400M. As we’re hitting the three year anniversary of the COVID PC, iPad, big screen TV, etc super cycle I can envision a replacement cycle kicking off in the next year or so. They’re also starting to do some interesting things in the area of aging in place/elderly monitoring, which should be an attractive market as the baby boomers age. 

[RedLion]

Bought deep ITM LEAPS on CI. 

[longlake95]

FFH

[Parsad]

15 hours ago, LC said:

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

 

Can't say yet.  Still just nibbling.  Once I take a big bite, will let you know!    Not OSTK.  BBY somewhat fits the description, but not as cheap as some of the other retailers I'm looking at.  

 

Retailers and restaurants have probably experienced something as bad, if not worse than what the banking industry just went through.  And they've suffered for years in terms of learning to compete against non-brick and mortar businesses, pandemic, inflation, shut-downs, debt accumulation, etc.  While they may not be great businesses long-term, they certainly have learned to become more efficient because their existence depends on it. 

 

When everybody is taking a piss on your industry, it might be time to look at what is fundamentally happening and if there are bargains there.  Retail and restaurants seem to be there, but restaurants have more headwinds against them still with labor and food costs.  Retailers are doing more business online...restaurants don't have that luxury.  Thus why retailers are piquing my interest here and restaurants still aren't.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

LUV is not a retailer, but fits in the same bucket. Trades at a 0.7 EV/ Sales, which seems to be a 10 year low. It’s cheaper than AAL on that metric, go figure.

 

The operational problems are real, but should be solvable. I can fairly easily see this being a $50 stock again. I own some shares, but watching for more progress on operational improvements to make this a larger bet.

 

LEVI is another one a sensibly operated erteilest and market leader in Jeans. I own some shares (have sold most in the recent rebound before they got whacked yesterday). Earnings didn’t look that great, but we’re not terrible either. They did manage to reduce their inventory and that’s part of the reason why earnings were subpar.

I think they are doing good over time doing more business DTC.

[Spekulatius]

$LUV and $AAL EV/S over the last 10 years:

[CorpRaider]

I'm with you on LUV.  Thought about doing some SAVE as a workout/similar industry "bet," but I suppose no deal really could be an outcome given the enforcement we're seeing and the dynamics of this industry. 

[Malmqky]

Nintendo and Fairfax

[Saluki]

Added some NETI and started a small position in POWW so that I can keep it on my radar. 

[bizaro86]

Nintendo

[backtothebeach]

Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s.

BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much.

 

Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock.

 

[KCLarkin]

Nintendo reminds me more of Disney around the time of star wars. 

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s.

BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much.

 

Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock.

 

 

Everybody was buying BABA because Munger was loading up.  No one was really buying META.

 

I learned my lesson a long time ago after trying to buy some things Seth Klarman was buying...so I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

 

Very few were buying FFH back in early 2020 when I was buying...even after Prem announced he was buying $150M, people still were wary.

 

I remember when I was buying BAC in 2008 before Buffett announced...only a handful of us on the COBF were buying BAC.

 

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right!  And don't emulate anyone else...just do your own work and have conviction in your assumptions.  Cheers!

[backtothebeach]

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

No one was really buying META.

 

A ton of people bought META, check out page 312 of this thread...

https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/8494-what-are-you-buying-today/page/312/

 

 

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

[...]

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right! 

 

Admirable that you have the skills, patience and conviction to make that edge work. Tough to do.

Edited April 11, 2023 by backtothebeach

[dealraker]

50 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Everybody was buying BABA because Munger was loading up.  No one was really buying META.

 

I learned my lesson a long time ago after trying to buy some things Seth Klarman was buying...so I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

 

Very few were buying FFH back in early 2020 when I was buying...even after Prem announced he was buying $150M, people still were wary.

 

I remember when I was buying BAC in 2008 before Buffett announced...only a handful of us on the COBF were buying BAC.

 

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right!  And don't emulate anyone else...just do your own work and have conviction in your assumptions.  Cheers!

Meta was a truly unique situation.  A very rare thing that went in many ways extreme, but an easily defined and easily fixable issue.  Zuck got himself under control and it ended immediately.  

[Luca]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Everybody was buying BABA because Munger was loading up.  No one was really buying META.

 

I learned my lesson a long time ago after trying to buy some things Seth Klarman was buying...so I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

 

Very few were buying FFH back in early 2020 when I was buying...even after Prem announced he was buying $150M, people still were wary.

 

I remember when I was buying BAC in 2008 before Buffett announced...only a handful of us on the COBF were buying BAC.

 

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right!  And don't emulate anyone else...just do your own work and have conviction in your assumptions.  Cheers!

I bought some Intel when Klarman was buying Intel, he sold after a significant loss...;-) 

 

Props to the rest you said! 

[Luca]

As lots of other folks here i like Nintendo too, i increased my position to 7.5% of my portfolio this morning. I think crossroad capital glamorizes the bull thesis a bit TOO much, but i do agree that this is value and with lots of potential upside.