tede02

100%. Originally, a lot of them said if the strait didn't open by the end of April all hell would break lose. Now it's June/July. Obviously no one really knows but it is notable that sharp drawdowns of inventories are starting to show up in the tracking stats and companies are warning of shortages in across industries. Will be interesting to watch it play out.

I've been soaking up knowledge from commodity people like Jeff Currie, Rory Johnston and Amrita Sen for the past two months. What's striking is how people in the energy world are saying things like, "we've never seen numbers like this," and the rest of the financial world is totally complacent. Makes me wonder if the current moment is analogous to Jan/Feb 2020 as the pandemic was spreading country to country. Didn't matter until it did. I don't know the answer but their are similarities. Seems like consensus is forming in the commodity world that shortages are going to hit globally in the next 1-2 months but no one knows precisely. But there definitely are signals. In recent days, reports of motor oil suppliers in the US are warning auto manufacturers and retailers of potential shortages. That's pretty crazy! Although I had been thinking about this for some time, in March I bought a 300 gallon tank and filled it with diesel (I live on a little farm so it's handy to have regardless). The price is looking pretty good right now. Also been buying some E&P ETFs. Steve Eisman just had a commodity guy on his podcast. Was a good discussion for those without lots of knowledge in the space. One interesting point the guy made about the oil majors in the US is the companies are well run and throw off tons of cash to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Because of this, he said one way to think about them is they are comparable to TIPS conceptually. If they are paying 2-3% dividend plus buying back stock, you end up with a decent real yield even if oil prices don't do much. If prices do go way higher, that can really juice your return.

2022 was a fun year for both equities and fixed income. On the fixed income side, I grabbed some TIPS when real yields surged past 2%, a bunch of CDs at 5%+ and a Doubleline bond ETF that was yieldling like 12% at the time. I'm still bummed I missed Facebook at the bottom in November 2022. Had a limit order in on long calls that just missed getting hit.

Fun thread to read. I'm in my early 40s now with over 20 years of investing experience. One concept I've come to appreciate much more with experience is sizing bets. When I was younger and hadn't suffered through big losers, I bet way too big. There's always an element of chance in investing and you have to respect it and things that are unknowable. That's what I've learned at least. I was also struck hearing Druckenmiller say that George Soros wasn't necessarily great at making big predictions, but he was a master of knowing when to bet big and when not to.

10 year yield is back to its high for the year. Pretty remarkable with rates up and oil moving up materially, equities just keep shrugging it off. No big deal.

I'm starting to consider short-term TIPS (probably via STIP) for idle cash. Real yields are 1-1.4%. If CPI does push north of 3.5%, that would be pretty attractive.

LOL. . There is SO MUCH irony in politics it's unbelievable. I'm constantly amused. Watch as the guy who hates electric cars, wind turbines and solar resurect sales growth of every one of them.

Saw that today. Pretty much what one would expect in terms of an uptick. Next 3-6 months will be very interesting. It is peculiar how different the CPI numbers are from the Truflation figures. I haven't studied the methodology of each to any significant extent but it is a bit curious.

I guess I wouldn't be totally shocked but that would be pretty wild and shake things up around the AI narrative!

Do you think inflation will rise above 4, 5, 6% over the next 24 months? The elephant in the room is the Hormuz situation which has dramatically raised energy and input prices globally. But even before the war the US was running a massive budget deficit, the labor market has been constrained due to aging population and imigration policy, tariffs (on-again, off again, etc.), and on top of that, you have the Fed expanding its balance sheet. It's not helicopter money but it does seem like a potent mix for rising prices. What are you seeing out there?

Some of the structured products in an ETF wrapper which track bitcoin have piqued my interest. The funds with start dates in October are way down so you can buy today with no downside (in the outcome period) but with big upside.

My 5% treasuries that were purchased in 2022 & 2023 are maturing. I've been re-directing cash into some of these AAA CLO ETFs which are currently yielding around 5%. Interesting that yields came down today despite the higher than expected inflation report. It is peculiar that the truflation stats tell one story while the BLS figures tell something different. The off again on again tariffs are probably going to keep the picture murky for the foreseeable future. I met with a guy this week that runs a $1 billion division of a manufacturing company with global operations. Asked him how tariffs have affected his business. He sighed and said it has been a major pain in the ass. Impossible to plan around.

Interesting perspective from Jensen Huang on AI pressure on software companies. He makes the case that software use may actually increase saying that AI agents will increasingly be working with humans and those agents will have the ability to use more tools. That raises the question, how will these companies adapt their pricing models? If I have an AI assistant that I want to use Salesforce or Factset, do I have to buy a separate license for "it?"

Just started Ken Rogoff's, "Our Dollar, Your Problem." I recently finished Lyn Alden's book, "Broken Money." If you really want to understand the basic history of money, banking and how the current fiat systems work, I'd highly recommend it.

Like others have said, you can't just buy any land and expect it's going to protect your purchasing power and provide a real rate of return. Don't get me wrong, I live on 35 acres and love it. But I wouldn't be surprised if marginal land in rural areas provides no real return over the next 50 years. One thing I think about a lot is demographics. The projections vary but it looks very possible the global population is going to peak by 2050. Deaths are expected to exceed births in the US starting around 2030. Demand for property in the southern US will probably be strong for decades to come as the population ages and people migrate to warmer areas. But in rural areas in the northern states, man, where is the demand for land going to come from?