Spooky

+1. This is the right advice.

Let's say you're right and there is a fiscal crisis in the US which leads to hyperinflation like in Argentina or the Weimar Republic - you certainly do not want to be in cash or bonds. You want to own real assets like real estate or companies that have pricing power.

+1

Feels like the narrative is shifting. Becky from HR isn't vibecoding...

Buy the S&P 500 when the equity risk premium is above 6%! 2020 was a great buying opportunity. Just another data point showing the general market is not very attractive. Agree on looking for individual companies, it is what I said to Blake earlier in the thread. Putting some money into treasuries could make sense as well.

It’s the gap between the S&P 500’s earnings yield (inverse of P/E ratio) and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Here is the full WSJ article the chart is from: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-risk-premium-for-holding-stocks-over-bonds-is-vanishing-95be5b9d?st=TUqyPP&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Equity risk premium basically gone.

It's a little sad. I would have loved to own some Space X before it was merged into twitter and xAi as a pure play space exploration company (at a reasonable valuation of course).

Yea, this stuff is troubling to me. Also some reports they want to bend the rules to allow the SpaceX / Anthropic IPOs into the S&P 500.

Can it really scale exponentially though if there are real world / physical constraints like building data center capacity / chips etc.?

No one is saying you need to be fully invested in the S&P 500. In fact, most people are saying to pick certain parts of the market to focus on. There are lots of great companies available at reasonable prices. Given what is happening with AI I would be terrified to be completely out of the market. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand and pointless in the grand scheme of things.

I mean it is shiny. It's crazy to me that we are in the middle of a technological revolution on the scale of the printing press and people want to bet on a rock.

Super interesting. Despite the huge run-up all my gold bug / hard money friends still think this is just early innings. No one talks about a bubble in gold despite the fact that there is no way to tell if gold is cheap or expensive.

. Well played