Intelligent_Investor

Micron going parabolic is more luck than anything even if they held. The shortages didn't really start until fairly recently and before that the industry for DRAM wasn't really the best in terms of economics. No one even 3 years ago would have predicted that DRAM would still be sold out at prices multiple of the prior ATH

I think the bottom line is unless they do something massively stupid, solid underwriting should bring about decent returns...Progressive has shown solid underwriting + bond returns can bring market beating returns.

The market has lost its damn mind with AI...Adobe tanked because AI was gonna replace them due to all their customers going and using AI and then analysts found most Adobe customers don't use AI features, so the stock went down even more because now it's not an AI stock...

If you are just trying to match S&P there is no point in managing 50 2% positions, just buy VOO and call it a day...just sell a small% if you need cash

Don't own anything in a concentrated portfolio you wouldn't be comfortable owning if the market is closed for a decade. 2% position is pointless for individual positions, at that point just buy index funds.

Was expecting a bit more buybacks, but hopefully they stay aggressive

They just need to put the word "AI" in their AR and the stock will start ripping and trade up to 2x book or more

He sounds like either a troll or someone who has vendetta against Fairfax...maybe because he lost money or missed out on gains.

Probably going to try and buy some SpaceX puts on IPO.

Imo value traps isn't the problem, it was the equity hedges. They are a great insurance company and other great insurance companies invest in only bonds and get great returns. They can be very average at investing and still outperform. They just can't put on equity hedges that kill their returns when the S&P is ripping 15% a year for a decade

Maybe he means Greg is buying the SpaceX IPO

The bottom line is if a 20% decline in stocks materially changes your QOL, you shouldn't own stocks. Otherwise, you should be okay with just holding the stock (or buying more). Selling shouldn't be considered unless the facts change around the company's prospects. Should be something that takes about 30 seconds of mental energy before you move on.

The complex and nuanced situation is if you can't handle a 10-20% correction from an ATH just a mere few months ago, you shouldn't own individual stocks and just buy the index. Selling shouldn't even be crossing your mind...

The answer is buy more lol, you are overcomplicating this and getting emotional about returns. As Charlie Munger said, if you aren't able to handle your stock investments declining by 50% once every few decades you shouldn't own stocks. I'd assume most of us are wealthy enough to not be on the streets with a 20% down year...

There likely aren't any that will move the needle. I don't know of many $100b family businesses