KPO

Add to LEN.B

Adds to CRM and CMCSA

Awesome! Hope you have a great time! Feel free to ping me directly on restaurant, hotel, brewery and/or other recommendations.

Today’s games are on FOX over the air. Interesting that they’re on Peacock too. KC is presently really excited and busy with Argentina and Algeria both playing and practicing here as their home base (England & The Netherlands too). Seems like all have great fan bases. I didn’t know what to expect, but wow!

Good stuff. I bookmarked it. Thanks for sharing!

Still holding in my speculative growth basket. Lol

Thanks for sharing. I’m impressed with how dominant they seem in the small to midsized restaurant business where we live and where we travel, but it’s still an economically sensitive sector.

Ripe for consolidation in my view. TOST & PYPL have the best balance sheets, while GPN, FISV and FOUR have poor balance sheets, but large customer bases and are cheap in their own right. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I could see PYPL broken up for parts, while TOST seems like the highest quality standalone business, but exposed to economic cycles due to their customer base, and still not statistically dirt cheap, but certainly fair value.

PYPL

I actually think there’s a possibility that coming out of this inflationary period in a few years that we might see some deflation. My view is more based on demographics than our crappy balance sheet, but both can be true. I hedge this by keeping a modest amount in TIPS & t-bills, which may be foolish but provides income. As a thought exercise I’d be interested in your thoughts on why it wouldn’t be better to invest in ‘forever assets’ like Berkshire or even CVX.

Worth watching: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/04/25/spacex-ipo-is-forcing-changes-to-index-and-underwriting-rules/ If I’m a financial advisor that typically defaults to the indexes, do I like this? Second order effect….what are my alternatives? Many hate Berkshire because they have limited tech exposure and no SpaceX or AI exposure. Check out the second largest SpaceX shareholder. Who now has exposure to AI, but not to the tune of 35-40% of net income as the S&P has? Berkshire is spreading their bets and becoming a better index. I like what I’m seeing from Greg in this first two quarters.

I’ve been at this game a long time. I think Fairfax is a really solid company and I was buying heavily during COVID, but I focus on unforced errors. A signal that they will eventually unwind the TRS through a modest unwind will go a long way in my view. I’m probably starting to fall into the old and conservative bucket like old man Buffett, so maybe I’m out of touch, but I’ve never been down more than 10% in any one year over a long time horizon so I like to think I’m not totally foolish.

Exactly. Create a construction platform, chemicals platform, retail platform, etc. and let the CEOs of each manage. Of course they already have the insurance platform. Makes sense to me. I do hope they start selling or winding down irrelevant companies where they have no prospect of scale to maximize cash flow.

I know most everyone here thinks it’s impossible for the TRS to go sideways on them, but it seems like a modest negative feedback loop has already begun. Would have been a great move to have closed out 20-25% of it several months ago. While it’s not a probable death sentence I still think it’s an unnecessary corner case risk if we otherwise like the direction of the business without creating unnecessary catalysts for the short selling community.

Yes. If there isn’t a directive, Greg isn’t doing his job. I don’t think one of the 4-5 largest purchasers of connectors, anchors, and truss plates is buying from Menards, or paint from retailers. At least I’d hope their supply chain is more sophisticated, or soon will be. If not, it’s a great efficiency opportunity lost, plus it would be disappointing to see them financially supporting the competition.

This will role under Taylor Morrison eventually: https://www.claytonhomebuildinggroup.com/clayton-properties-group Top 4 home builder before any additional acquisitions as far as I can tell. #1 if we want to include Clayton. There’s no doubt all of the above give lift to Shaw, Benjamin Moore and the other owned building products companies. Would love to see them buy AOS as well, but probably too pricey when you layer on an acquisition premium.

It is. I did work on it and several others before I recently landed on Lennar B shares. This and the press release language from Greg is good news for Berkshire’s future. He’s clearly not viewing the assets under Berkshire ownership as a random assortment of businesses purchased over the last 50+ years, but as platforms for future vertically integrated investment (e.g. Summit homes and other site built, Shaw, Benjamin Moore, Johns Manville, MiTek, etc.). Now they just need to buy RYN or WY to have half the inputs covered at reasonable acquisition prices.

Playing offense with cash in a somewhat bombed out sector…..and a Sunday afternoon press release. The Abel era has begun. I like it.

I bought on Wednesday and it’s already up $175. I wasn’t expecting that and was planning to buy more, but it definitely moved a bit. Fascinating company. I was very late to it, but better late than never!

More TAP and PGR

Starter in CSU yesterday, more GFL today

PGR starter

More GFL

First of all I like companies that make tangible necessities, so no concern around AI displacement. Second I like market share leaders in a business that’s a near duopoly. Third they’ve grown free cash flow at an ~8%CAGR over 25 years, have raised the dividend for 30 years straight, bought back 2-3% of their shares per year over the last 13 years, and have done all this with a balance sheet that has had net cash more years than not. It’s currently trading at a 25% discount to its 20 year average P/E and EV/EBITDA. I’ve wanted to own it for years as it’s a very well run company that still has a trustworthy family as significant shareholders, but it’s always been expensive, which is why I’m averaging in now. I’m not particularly worried about the results in the last few or next few quarters.

More AOS