What are you buying today?

[no_free_lunch]

18 hours ago, Luca said:

Vanguard All World, Set it and forget it! Its something you can own, if it doesnt exist anymore, civilization wont

Thanks for this.

[Spooky]

18 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

I see they just issued a bunch of LTIP units last week, but I was scared there's some rent regulation scuttlebutt pre-news that I'm missing.

 

There was a recent Odd lots podcast saying that the golden age of being a landlord is over as well as some articles in bloomberg about it.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Spooky

[Saluki]

20 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I am planning an extended trading break.  Rather than start yet another thread thought I'd ask here. Where would you guys park your money?  I'm Canadian with assets split into us and canada.  I suspect the answer I vanguard etfs but doesn't hurt to ask.

 

There's a couple of cumulative prefereds that I'm looking at.  Here's one:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRG-PA?p=SRG-PA&.tsrc=fin-srch

 

it's at $23.17 with a $25 liquidation preference.  currently a 7.58% dividend at this price.  Seritage is in a kind of run off mode now and selling off the non-core assets to pay down debt and are open to selling off the entire company. I fell like I'm watching someone defuse a bomb while the timer ticks down.  Assuming the common survives and stabilizes long enough for someone to buy what's left and they call the preferreds, you get that dividend plus another 8% ($23.17x 1.08 = $25) when they close you out at par. If it happens soon, it's not a bad place to park your money.  There are people who are long the common, so maybe this would appeal to them, because if the common survives, then this is money good, but it's a lot of uncertainty. You will get your $25 before the common equity holders get anything, but if there is something that really goes sidways, the debt holders will get paid out first and that $25 is not guaranteed if there is nothing to pay it with. 

 

I'm looking at another cumalative preferred too, much smaller and  less debt, and yielding 9% but haven't had time to read the 10-k yet so I don't want to mention it yet. 

[formthirteen]

AAPL and NVDA puts

 

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

AAPL and NVDA puts

 

 

Ha!  No thoughts on NVDA personally, but I can't be the only one out there that has had a big 'ole downtrend line drawn on Apple for over a year and there went the stock price right into it and stopped going up.  Look out if it breaks higher though.  It looks like a popular line in the sand to draw.

[Gregmal]

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Ha!  No thoughts on NVDA personally, but I can't be the only one out there that has had a big 'ole downtrend line drawn on Apple for over a year and there went the stock price right into it and stopped going up.  Look out if it breaks higher though.  It looks like a popular line in the sand to draw.

I’ve added “financial professionals opining on valuations” to the list of folks to either ignore or point and laugh at. As a group, they’ve clearly demonstrated that there’s no correlation in terms of what they think something should trade for, and where it eventually does. More cynically, their opinions really seem to just be marketing material or ego caressing attention grabs. 

[dealraker]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I’ve added “financial professionals opining on valuations” to the list of folks to either ignore or point and laugh at. As a group, they’ve clearly demonstrated that there’s no correlation in terms of what they think something should trade for, and where it eventually does. More cynically, their opinions really seem to just be marketing material or ego caressing attention grabs. 

Wow Greg...you mean you aren't in awe of someone like Bloomstran ----  who routinely assaults Cathie Woods while citing the never attained value he claims Berkshire is worth along with listing in detail the out-performance of the stocks he owns for the last 10 years...all while his fund (of course) never keeps up with the indexes?    How dare you be so radical?

[Gregmal]

15 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Wow Greg...you mean you aren't in awe of someone like Bloomstran ----  who routinely assaults Cathie Woods while citing the never attained value he claims Berkshire is worth along with listing in detail the out-performance of the stocks he owns for the last 10 years...all while his fund (of course) never keeps up with the indexes?    How dare you be so radical?

They all must be mocked equally. I especially enjoy how much rage the underperforming value bros throw at Cathie. Deep down, they know she’s superior to them…the goal for neither is to really compound, but make money. And Cathie’s biz just had a run like few ever had and it eats at those fucks which is why she gets so much hate. Would I ever invest with her? Hell no. Although I’d consider investing in the parent company who generates fees off the crazy ARKs. But girl has a fuckin business and a brand, thats for sure. Someone like Hussman? Not so much. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

Like all the “ma calculators and excel sheets prove her Tesla work is total bullshit!” bros…….it’s like yo, brotha, didn’t you call it a short and have a $30 price target on it…..in like 2015? At least she got the direction correct lol. We all know both of you are just guessing on where it ends up and when that happens…but Ken Griffin appreciates your business.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Gregmal

[CorpRaider]

On 4/4/2023 at 12:11 PM, Spooky said:

 

There was a recent Odd lots podcast saying that the golden age of being a landlord is over as well as some articles in bloomberg about it.

To be fair the golden age of being a landlord was probably during Feudalism.

Edited April 5, 2023 by CorpRaider

[Luke]

Thanks for the entertainment, had a laugh in the train @Gregmal @CorpRaider

[Parsad]

I haven't bought anything since I was buying tech stocks.  Now I'm starting to nibble on a few different retailers.  Why?

 

Many retailers remain significantly undervalued due to the pandemic, interest rates, evolution of retail, etc.  But, a lot of them have paid down debt that they accumulated during the pandemic, sales have rebounded back closer to pre-pandemic levels, employment and incomes remain strong, and inflation/interest rates are slowing. 

 

Some pay very decent dividends, are trading at single digit multiples and remain battered because of commercial real estate risks.  But if you own the land and buildings, commercial property risks mean little.  They've also made huge progress in underlying operating expenses and inventory that had to be reduced over the last couple of years.  Many have also increased their online sales during that same time.  They are also not exposed to the same type of margin compression that say restaurants would be exposed to where food costs continue to be very high.

 

Cheers!

[LC]

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

[KPO]

3 hours ago, LC said:

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

I don’t love retail, and don’t own any yet, but BBY is starting to get interesting at a >8% free cash yield, 4.9% dividend yield and net cash of ~$400M. As we’re hitting the three year anniversary of the COVID PC, iPad, big screen TV, etc super cycle I can envision a replacement cycle kicking off in the next year or so. They’re also starting to do some interesting things in the area of aging in place/elderly monitoring, which should be an attractive market as the baby boomers age. 

[Red Lion]

Bought deep ITM LEAPS on CI. 

[longlake95]

FFH

[Parsad]

15 hours ago, LC said:

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

 

Can't say yet.  Still just nibbling.  Once I take a big bite, will let you know!    Not OSTK.  BBY somewhat fits the description, but not as cheap as some of the other retailers I'm looking at.  

 

Retailers and restaurants have probably experienced something as bad, if not worse than what the banking industry just went through.  And they've suffered for years in terms of learning to compete against non-brick and mortar businesses, pandemic, inflation, shut-downs, debt accumulation, etc.  While they may not be great businesses long-term, they certainly have learned to become more efficient because their existence depends on it. 

 

When everybody is taking a piss on your industry, it might be time to look at what is fundamentally happening and if there are bargains there.  Retail and restaurants seem to be there, but restaurants have more headwinds against them still with labor and food costs.  Retailers are doing more business online...restaurants don't have that luxury.  Thus why retailers are piquing my interest here and restaurants still aren't.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

LUV is not a retailer, but fits in the same bucket. Trades at a 0.7 EV/ Sales, which seems to be a 10 year low. It’s cheaper than AAL on that metric, go figure.

 

The operational problems are real, but should be solvable. I can fairly easily see this being a $50 stock again. I own some shares, but watching for more progress on operational improvements to make this a larger bet.

 

LEVI is another one a sensibly operated erteilest and market leader in Jeans. I own some shares (have sold most in the recent rebound before they got whacked yesterday). Earnings didn’t look that great, but we’re not terrible either. They did manage to reduce their inventory and that’s part of the reason why earnings were subpar.

I think they are doing good over time doing more business DTC.

[Spekulatius]

$LUV and $AAL EV/S over the last 10 years:

[CorpRaider]

I'm with you on LUV.  Thought about doing some SAVE as a workout/similar industry "bet," but I suppose no deal really could be an outcome given the enforcement we're seeing and the dynamics of this industry. 

[Malmqky]

Nintendo and Fairfax

[Saluki]

Added some NETI and started a small position in POWW so that I can keep it on my radar. 

[bizaro86]

Nintendo

[backtothebeach]

Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s.

BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much.

 

Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock.

 

[KCLarkin]

Nintendo reminds me more of Disney around the time of star wars.