no_free_lunch

$CSU.to. I actually missed the big moves and sold way too early but even still I managed to double my money in half a year. I've had lots of other doubles and larger but this was different. I had a huge position in it as it was going for 15x earnings, with no debt, growing 30% a year or something and holding a diversified set of niche software businesses. It didn't ever feel like there was much risk. I probably had 10% in it (for me that's huge) but always regret not making it larger. It was the near certainty that I would not lose and possibly make a huge gain that stands out.

Atrion $ATRI This is a mega compounder that is on sale. Niche medical device market. Good financial position with no real debt. In regards to the huge decline (it's down 60% from ATH) I would just say that this is how it rides, and it isn't always clean. We are currently at a down phase but the company is trading around 15x prior year earnings and has historically compounded at 15-20%. Not sure if they can continue at that rate but I feel it's way too cheap. There will probably be at least another quarter before sales turn around but most of the slow down has been due to oversupplying channels due to COVID demand. I have the impression that the business is not fundamentally impaired. I feel it could trade at 20-25x normalized earnings, which is 30-70% from here plus any growth they can pull off.

It bothers me. I don't think I can, with good conscience, be part of some unknown censor protocol. It would have been fine if we just weren't allowed to talk politics at all but to have people casually discuss the slaughter of Ukrainians and Russians and then randomly draw the line at Israel/Palestine.. It's too much for me. Admin are well within their rights to set limits but I am within my rights not to take part. I am sure no one cares but that's my go forward protest. I will lurk on the sidelines.

Is anybody else a little upset that an entire thread just disappeared.... I am fine with no politics but then why are we discussing Ukraine...

That domino seems to be doing OK. They have nuclear weapons and a huge advanced military. If it seems like they will get overrun maybe we should help but otherwise clearly not our fight.

I don't disagree with much you said. I, Canadian perspective, just don't want to get involved. Risk of Iran involvement.

Did it get deleted?

They are now threatening to execute hostages. Throws a wrench in the plans. I guess Israel can just ignore the threats in which case Hamas is really screwed but I'm not sure that's palatable.

Are you going to show your sources? You made a claim., back it up or withdraw it.

Show me some reputable sources saying what you just said. Truth is Republicans are making up lies. You know there's an actual war going on, not the time for your political nonsense.

I think it's probably closer to 100k. If you assume 3 wounded for every dead that's still around 400k or 1 percent of the entire pre war population. They would have collapsed with the larger number. Anyways the number doesn't matter, what matters is Ukraine still would rather fight than be enslaved. I know this has gotten old and repetitive but that is part of it. This is an endurance event.

The 100k is closer to Ukraine sources. It's mostly civilians. 500k is tucker Carlson interviewing some US General. Sorry don't have the quote handy. The 500k is propaganda and I think total bs.Ukraine entire army was 400k at peak hence why that number can't be trusted. Usually 3 wounded per killed so would be 1.6m casualties. You know I'm actually Republican supporter generally but they do say some low iq things.

Ukraine has over 100k dead, many civilians. If you believe tucker its 500k dead. They have been fighting a full scale war. I totally sympathize with Israel but it's not the same.

There are a lot of stories of Israelis fleeing, 35% find ways to skip the military, so why do you seemingly favor one and not the other. I think both situations are similar. Both are fighting to hold the western world order together.

I agree. This isn't just accounting that can be waved off. Either you mark to market and take a huge hit or you accept a bond portfolio that returns significantly less than competitors. I just wonder how to profit from it. Ffh got priced up which makes sense given short term bonds but it's still undervalued. I think it just no longer has the taint, there is no premium and yet its probably deserved. Other insurers with long bond books didn't really get hit so maybe some are shorts. Are there other insurers with short bond portfolios who are advantaged but not pricing it in? I'm already maxed on ffh allocation. Sorry if that's too off topic.

Thanks for $CRL, was not on my radar. It's exactly what I am looking for though. Bit of a moat, margins expanding with scale, larger player, track record, reasonable valuation. Probably will end up buying it if it stays in this price range but need to some DD. I wonder what FCF is at, there is quite a bit of amortization so could it be higher even than earnings?

I think it's worth hanging a line in medical devices / services. A lot of stuff is blowing up. Admittedly a lot of stuff was over priced but still I think there are some deals to be had. Just bought some $MLAB, a medical diagnostic company. It screens horrid, with like a 100-300 PE but that is nonsense. They are a serial acquirer so there are numerous accounting charges. In their annual report they break out their adjusted earnings and they are going for 10-12x that number. This for a company that has grown EPS 15-20% per year over the past couple decades. I think they have hit some recent challenges but yet they are still very profitable and historically that has been part of the business, it is a lumpy 15-20% growth rate. I don't know how much of a moat they have, I suspect there might be a small one based on the high margins and due and due to small size of these businesses discouraging competitors but I won't pretend to be an expert. Anyone else got any idea in this area?

Thanks for the link, I was actually looking at W R Berkley and Travelers recently, nice to see them together. I wonder why they would peg FFH so far below book value? Regarding the valuation assignment, I think it's great to have a value that misaligns as that builds an environment of opportunity.

He reminds me of some of my profs when I was in school. You leave the lecture feeling both intimidated and inspired and yet with no idea what you just learned. I don't care how much money he has I think he is full of it.

Viemed (VMD.TO) - medical device company, good little compounder with huge runway, sales hit by COVID, I estimate it is trading around 20x current year earnings and growing 20% per year. Roughly 15x next year analyst ]estimates. Sold off recently with other medical companies.

They were making giant short bets on equity indexes (I may be slightly wrong on the terminology but that was the essence of it) for years. As the market cranked forward over the past decade this was one component of why they lagged so badly. I believe they have now stopped with the shorting. This general market shorting only started in (I'm guessing here) 2010, it was not part of their original strategy. I like them for everything else, making counter-cyclical bets and buying out of favor companies. I like that they have an insurance company they can draw additional capital from. I just don't want them making macro bets. If they want to hedge I would prefer they just hold more bonds.

I think there was a style drift in ffh few years back. That's what concerned me. Am I buying the same company of the past? I only got back in because viking made a compelling argument and the share price collapsed.

So "UK", to summarize, Russia provided security .. promises (something less than guarantees) and then had the one disputed territory taken over by Azerbaijan. Now Armenia is pivoting away from Russia. Additional background, Azerbaijan is using advanced Turkish (NATO) supplied weapons to attack Armenia. Armenia is now getting closer with the US (and other NATO countries perhaps). What a complicated situation. Hopefully the current borders can hold. I just hope the west doesn't screw over the Armenians with false promises. They are in a very delicate place.

Bought some $ARE.TO. Small 1% position for now. Bought an extra sliver of $C.

Thanks for posting. Scary but not surprising. This is confirmed, here is a Canadian link to what I believe is the same event. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2023/06/08/india-angered-sikh-parade-float-portraying-assassination/