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no_free_lunch

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  1. It's even tougher today. I am debating selling my REITs, they are up 30% since January plus dividend. Defense and tobacco is still reasonable. Other than that there is VZ and T, hard to get rich on them but they seem safe and could do 10% perhaps. Looking at industrial sector. BASF seems interesting but not without challenges and perhaps less secure than the other names mentioned in this thread. I am only halfway through my DD on them. If you know anything else that is safe and cheap, please let us know. Bonus points for being boring.
  2. Thanks @patience_and_focus, you clearly are more informed than I am on this topic. Is it not true that this is the first drug that slowed the growth of the plaques? I know others have researched towards delaying plaque build up but has anything else actually worked? I get that the plaque may just be a symptom but from what I have read it may play a role in disrupting neural communications.
  3. https://www.barrons.com/articles/fastly-stock-outage-think-apple-51623269551 I am looking at it but still no position. It's a classic spinoff setup, you have a garbage company, loaded with debt and a small size relative to remainco. However if I recall greenblat the key element is to get shitco after it has sold off. It would be nice to get some clarity from management on revenue growth and confirmation of earnings.
  4. The drug does work in that they have shown with higher doses to slow the growth of plaque. However, it is not clear if slowing plaque growth actually improves outcomes. I look at it as I would want to take the drug if I had alzheimers, based on what I have read, so what is the harm here. It hasn't shown to cause particularly negative side effects so if nothing else, this is a live clinical trial and maybe we can learn something from how people respond. As an investment, I missed it and I will just watch from the sidelines.
  5. AT&T reported not great but positive earnings today. It popped a few percent but yet is still trading at around 9x earnings. The company saw gains in fiber, wireless and HBO max while pay tv continues to die. I am keeping a close eye on management and they probably burn me in the end but it seems like a decent risk/reward relative to the market. https://www.barrons.com/articles/at-t-just-reported-earnings-here-are-the-numbers-to-know-51619096648 Separately and a bit old news, HBO max will be creating a new series of Game of Thrones. I am always skeptical of the qual
  6. Eric yours is just an argument for why tobacco is bad. NOBODY is arguing otherwise. You win, we get it, tobacco is addictive and sure maybe it makes you receptive to other drugs. Guess what though, same is true for other drugs. Why push for legalization of some but make tobacco illegal? There is no way you can stop it. People will just smuggle it. Cops won't enforce the laws. You just deprive yourself of tax revenue.
  7. Appreciate it. I think I just needed to get used to the change. I am getting older now.. I find I like the new site more and more as I use it.
  8. I was thinking along the same lines. Which might make it actually worse for your health. It seems strange to be banning tobacco while at the same time there is talk about legalizing more and more drugs. I get that tobacco is just another drug but therefore we should learn the same lesson from the drug war / prohibition.
  9. Hi Parsad. I think this site is one of the best on the web but I don't care for the new format. I find it busy and I prefer the simpler classic version. Just being honest. One small suggestion. There is so much white on the pages, everything blends together including the ads. Perhaps the posts could have a different shade so they stand out? Anyways, it doesn't really matter what I think and ultimately I am here for the quality of the discussions so I am just happy you are keeping the site going.
  10. Chances of death are very low but you can still get very sick and incur permanent damage to your lungs or organs. Even if you are healthy. Not just theoretical, I know someone 40ish and healthy and fit that had this happen. They have lung damage, it's permanent. They also went through complete hell for 2 weeks. Israel has vaccinated over half their population and haven't reported any issues. The pharma companies aren't based there so they have no reason to lie about the effectiveness. I feel at this point it's quite a remote chance the vaccine is more dangerous than covid.
  11. I am ok with inflation , in theory but I also don't think the central bankers really know what they are doing. It's not really a criticism, it's just reality. It's not them, it's anyone, too many variables in the equation to be able to predict the outcome. They sure didn't expect a nationwide housing plunge in 2006. Im not sure it was clear that various stimulus measures would lead to a mammoth tech bubble in the middle of a virus epidemic either. So I would be ok with inflation in that 2 to 3 pct range so long as we know that's actually what will happen. There was a good post by VC Sam
  12. As I understand there is mandated open data in the us. I'm not sure the same exists in Canada. The public not the organization benefits from open data so I don't think it will happen voluntarily. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/05/09/executive-order-making-open-and-machine-readable-new-default-government-
  13. I agree in principle that the entire defense industry is cheaply priced relative to the market. Some of these companies give me deja vu to investing back in 2012. Earning multiples below 15 are common, share buybacks, dividends, it seems almost guaranteed money. I am long GD but I think there are even cheaper and better equities in defense. You can buy a basket to mitigate company risk but beyond how do you assess risk? The only risks I see is that defense budgets get cut. It seems very unlikely to me but who knows. Perhaps some epic accord is signed with China and Russia to demilitari
  14. 1 - BRK 2 - BAM (this is basically a double and held in taxable, not reflective of a bullish stance so much as tax mitigation) 3 - ELF 4 - FFH 5 - AVB
  15. I just know that they are buying the shares today. Every share they buy it's half price. It's so easy for them to drive the NAV with this formula. It's been with present management for 50 years and they haven't burned us yet but I guess you do need to watch out. As they buy the shares up , those who remain are the diehards. This is my third largest position. I'm not selling at half NAV. I am hoping my peers aren't either. No sellers so that is going to push the shares up. At the end of the day it will be safety and me holding the float with the firm putting out bids. That effect has to
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