Gregmal

I have never really given this sort of thing any weight. It's basically marketing material for AUM eaters and something poor people do to give themselves "wins"/gamify a process that shouldn't be gamified. If Im OK with, and understand what I own...owning it is an active decision and playing the herky jerk game of buy/sell/buy/sell is just a distraction and waste of time. I always wondered, imagine where Musk/Bezos/Gates would be if they routinely did that sort of thing with their individual businesses and entities?

The US is the land of opportunity. Which doesnt mean folks aint free to sit around wasting that opportunity bitching and moaning about stuff they have no control over....

Well theres also this nonsense from oil bulls about how "Trump talked down oil prices"....ahhhh....thats not how it works. Trump talking, or your boner inducing 5-10% spikes on nothing but rumors....ultimately have ZERO to do with the actual supply and demand that oil is predicated on. So no, Trump didnt "talk down" prices, supply and demand when translated in the real world, proved you suckers just bid it up way too high speculating on your own conspiracy theories.

Sure, but the US needs wars to keep money moving and people distracted.

Blakes just mad he fell for the oil bros propaganda

You do realize, that probably the majority of Americans and even the world, would be happy to shower Iran with economic growth and welcome to the 21st century incentives if they’d just stop the state sponsored terrorism stuff, right?

Isn’t it obvious now that the formula here for most is basically (take current event), squiggle and connect somewhat stretched dots and lines to eventually culminate in an ever predictable (Trump so stupid) outcome….almost every single time.

Its sooo tempting to checkout Marco Paulo on X, squirming uncomfortably, attempting to worm his way out of looking like a total fool tool whom once again basically became the guy who's screams about higher oil prices more or less marked the top. It was probably a "religious" experience like in August 2022 when he ate the top there too. Heck, he's even doing the "I bought in September 2025" appeal to rationalize how pretty much anybody whom listened to him during this whole saga lost money. Man the internet can be fun. But lesson should be learned, never take the guys selling newsletters that always seem to pump the same. exact. stuff...serious at all. If anything, theyre contras.

I think it depends on sizing. If your "largest" position is less than 10% it really doesnt even matter. Generally I think on one's best ideas you should be OK putting 5-7% of the portfolio "at risk". Meaning if you think theres potentially 50% downside a low teens allocation is reasonable.

End of the day it's as simple as making the position as big as you're personally comfortable with and holding it until you dont want to hold it anymore. Beyond that it's kind of a waste of time having hard rules and all that because the whole point of being in the market is to capitalize on opportunity.

You'd think, but no, thats what desperate oil bulls are saying.

Oils still 20% higher than pre war and ...."oil hasn't gone up"...

I don’t know about this statement, because the folks I know who are on the spectrum are actually intelligent

Not related to ASML but this general line of thought with the broader market is what Im struggling with. Its seems "these are popular and will be in demand for a bit" is all that underpins much of the "buy, buy, buy!" mentality.

A buddy of mine about 4 months ago decided to switch his monthly purchases from a mix of Berkshire and others to just nvidia. When I asked him why he said because of AI. He then asked if I hated AI. I then asked if he realized what percentage of US GDP nvidia needed to become in order to have any sort of upside from a $5T or whatever starting point. He seemed confused and then said “so you dont think AI is gonna be a thing?”…. It’s almost like debating with the folks whom are genuinely confused why “oil hasn’t gone up since Iran started”….guess there’s different universes out there or something.

Yeahhhhh, I don’t think that this whole AI trade thingy is new. Or early. But what do I know?

Too many people think about oil like a stock. It’s not, it’s purely supply and demand on the final scale where settlement occurs. For instance, here’s Marco Polo doing his thing in 2022. So hilariously cringe because the religious experience seemed to have been calling the top on oil, and assuming one takes their own investment advice and isn’t just peddling newsletter scripts, bagheld until….just the last few months. When, once again….Mr Polo smugly thinks he’s on the cusp of calling some huge generational surge lmfao

Honestly? I don’t even blame them. I’d boo the ever loving shit out of him too if I paid $15k for a ticket and had to go thru TSA like security for a sporting event.

I think $70 is on the lowest end of maybe a public market fair valuation range. But that’s still being awfully onerous. Realistically given the unique nature of the assets, and pricing power, maybe $90-110. They’re grow cashflow low teens from here, the balance sheet is also in tremendous shape, they’re adding Rockettes shows again, and yeah, sports and concert revenue is gonna grow after the year they just had. MSGS I just think at these levels, is still susceptible to all the bullshit narrative stuff once the hype dies down. It’s hardly overvalued, but from $390 there’s other places I’ll place some wagers as well. But it’s still a low teens position that I will happily borrow against.

Yea Lakers are a tenant.

The arena itself is worth $5B which folks often forget to factor into what the teams are otherwise worth. These "should" always trade at some discount to NAV, just not 50%. The position has basically doubled in a year so my exposure is still way larger than it was. And yea, it's important to remember the bad times when enjoying the good ones. For too long you had those assholes whom declared it wasnt worth a bid because theres no cashflow, Dolans an idiot, and Dolan aint selling. Now, Dolans looking like a genius, partial sales are likely, the Knicks are toast of the town, and even Taylor Swift is getting married at the Garden. Buy when out of favor, sell when in favor. It'll always be a double digit part of the portfolio but even amongst the MSG universe, MSGE is way better value right now IMO.

Yea like COO and they had some issues to work thru but with the litigation resolved now they can run the strategic review. Think a partial sale is likely at fair value over $90

Sold ~20% of MSGS to add more COO and CPNG

Yea I think theres bits of pieces of the last few manias here. Dot com new tech excitement, 08 accounting, 2021 supply/demand distortion/over earning.