LC

Not hedging the yen, but buying in JPY. Ross- I also sold puts on DFIN this morning.

Both, or neither? I look at the last call it 5 years earnings just to get my bearings on the business. Then I look forward - are prospects better, worse, or similar to the past few years? If I think the prospects are way better (something like Fairfax in 2021), but the market is pricing as if prospects are middling, well maybe there's an interesting investment. Ultimately it comes down to what the business will earn in the future, vs. what you pay today. We know today's price, the rub is in estimating future earnings. I think prior earnings history does provide some baseline at least to start estimating.

Oh wow - my brother got married there ages ago Good ole Tarrytown - hopefully Westchester treated your family well!

Buffett is smart. The best time to raise money is when you don't need it. Especially if it costs 1%. That said yeah I agree he is probably buying more Japanese equities.

The million Canadian dollar question: are investors here buying, holding, or selling? What % if your portfolio is Fairfax compared to say, 6 or 12 months ago? Partly rhetorical - but is Fairfax as easy of a “buy” today, versus 6, 12, 24 months ago?

He puts the block in blockheaded.

Another way is debt forgiveness- forced or voluntary.

I take a more sobering view. I would argue 1-3 are closer to cash return businesses and only 4 can arguably be a reinvestment/growth story. I own tobacco and O&G - the thesis for both is similar: the market is pricing in a faster terminal decline than I am. But there is not really growth, and I would be a seller when they are valued closer to a market multiple. Gambling, I haven't done much research there so I'll reserve comment China - You have compelling valuations and potential for growth with China. I am dipping my toes here (partly based on your posts!). In a future where the current political risks are overblown, it looks like a good bet. I am betting a political status quo is more preferable to open, direct hostilities. But still, difficult to argue against other faster growing areas of the global economy that will probably continue to grow: Technology and healthcare are two that come to mind.

And Capone went to jail for tax evasion. None of this is new.

We need a "Trump financial news" thread. My two cents - after seeing this guy skirt the law and fleece anyone he could simply because he had power over them, for DECADES in NY...I do think it's hilarious that he is on the receiving end. Do I with the law was transparent and principled and we all played by the same set of rules and the various systems of justice enforced it all equally? Of course. But sadly it isn't...as Trump himself fully knows. To me it looks like he played his hand too strong and it's biting him in the ass. But don't fret - I'm sure daddy Putin or whomever will come to his aid and let the courts play out this charade another few years

Dipped a toe into five-cent (tencent) and couche-tard.

That's fair but the counterpoint (not that I really agree) is that - if Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, etc. are all out there competing with each other and presumably driving down profits in the name of adding consumer value, why are those stocks essentially the high flyers of the US economy? Is it competition or simply an oligopoly?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-03-19/bank-of-japan-monetary-policy-decision?embedded-checkout=true

10+ years ago the line was, "watch what WB does, not necessarily what he says"

I chuckled What % are you in FFH? Purchases due to muddy waters took me over 45% I view it as having good known baseline performance over the next few years (due to the bond positioning), some potential for further outperformance (depending on the insurance market, investment performance). But I am looking to pare it down as I find investments with more upside torque.