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Posted
21 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

FHN. I expect TD to go through with the deal, albeit at a lower price.

Well they’re waiting on regulatory approval (which given the climate would be stupid not to approve). But regulators are stupid as we’ve seen.

 

It’s not expected they’ll approve the deal by the time TD is allowed to walk away, which is in the next few weeks. FHN and TD are negotiating terms to extend the deadline but like you said, it may be at a lower price.

 

Personally I feel there are better risk/rewards in the industry.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

Well they’re waiting on regulatory approval (which given the climate would be stupid not to approve). But regulators are stupid as we’ve seen.

 

It’s not expected they’ll approve the deal by the time TD is allowed to walk away, which is in the next few weeks. FHN and TD are negotiating terms to extend the deadline but like you said, it may be at a lower price.

 

Personally I feel there are better risk/rewards in the industry.

 

Upside is ~ 30%, definitely lower than I'd like. Downside doesn't seem too bad however, so the risk/reward skew seems *ok* to me.

 

Even if the deal is pushed back yet again, my thinking is:

 

  • TD wants the assets
  • This may be TD's last chance to get a deal done in the US for a while assuming Biden gets another term
  • Like you said, its stupid for regulators not to approve it

 

This set-up makes me believe some kind of sale is going to happen within the next few months here, hopefully in the $22-25 per share range.

 

EDIT: Great timing on this one lol

Edited by Malmqky
Posted

Exited Meta and will add proceeds to current holdings or maybe a new position into Texas Instruments i am researching ATM

Posted

Added a small bit to HHC at 74. Not thrilled about having to deal with crummy management now, but very keen on being a pre IPO investor in Ackman Enteprises. 

Posted

Bough a little more Nintendo this morning brining it to a 5% position. Added a little bit to DFIN yesterday and sold a few $40 puts on CASH. 

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