Luca Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, KCLarkin said: Nintendo reminds me more of Disney around the time of star wars. Did Disney trade at almost 8.5x earnings (EV), 30b EV in 2015? Remember, if Nintendo falls 50% this stock will trade at 15b EV, that Marketcap alone will probably justify the movies they make if we look at marios current success...:D Excluding all the other strong segments. Downside looks really fine and upside as well. I am in for the ride. Edited April 11, 2023 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Luca said: Did Disney trade at almost 8.5x earnings (EV), 30b EV in 2015? Remember, if Nintendo falls 50% this stock will trade at 15b EV, that Marketcap alone will probably justify the movies they make if we look at marios current success...:D Excluding all the other strong segments. Downside looks really fine and upside as well. I am in for the ride. No, Disney did NOT trade at a 30bn EV in 2015. As a matter of fact, the low for the stock that year was $91, although there may have been fewer shares outstanding since it had not bought Fox at that time. Edited April 11, 2023 by Dinar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malmqky Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 18 hours ago, backtothebeach said: Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s. BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much. Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock. We certainly might be overestimating the upside…but the downside seems pretty limited. Assuming management isn’t lying about the switch, the bear case is extremely weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 18 hours ago, backtothebeach said: Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s. BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much. Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock. I don’t understand the Nintendo thing either. For me that’s an avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooky Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 Started a position in JOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 21 hours ago, backtothebeach said: A ton of people bought META, check out page 312 of this thread... https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/8494-what-are-you-buying-today/page/312/ Like 10-12 people. Half of them stopped buying as the stock plummeted below $100 and most sold out before they broke even. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 Added some VTS on the dip. (oil is up 2% today, VTS is down 7% on some analyst's downgrade, looks fine to me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 Built a starter in Exor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Added to 9988hk BABA Added to Bitcoin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Adding ATVI regularly and ongoing. Merger should be approved for 95/sh. Also, "Our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.47 per common share, payable on May 6, 2021, to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 15, 2021." Its not much but its something to consider if interested in the arbitrage. Will have more clarity in a few weeks as to the EU/CMA regulators. All signs point to approval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 managed to add a little more VTS at the open following yesterday's dip. It was negative at the open for a few minutes before going up and I got lucky I sold some appreciated BRK in my retirement account and bought the same amount back in my taxable account so I could buy VTS in the retirement account without having to hold it for a year if it shoots up to unreasonable levels. Someone I met from the board told me he has bought low and sold around $20 twice and bought back again. I tend to hoard stocks like an old lady collecting commemorative plates, but I think if it was in my retirement account where I don't have to pay short term capital gain taxes, I might be open to the idea of trading in and out of something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Sold some Meta and added proceeds to Nintendo and Exor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Unit Corporation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Bought CASH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Small add to MTB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 On 4/3/2023 at 4:46 PM, Spekulatius said: NVDA really looks like a bubble, but looking at puts, I need to pay ~$10 for a $200 strike for 10/2023. That's a ~$190 breakeven or down 32% from the current $280 share price. Looks more like a candidate for straight up shorting but I don't short. You are probably right. In any event I did the same as with my TSLA short a few days after on a drop; sold position for average 15-20% gain and concluded my call options are already hard enough to time, let alone puts. No need for added stress in the ptf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Picked up some more 7974.T Nintendo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Added to Exor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throw123 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Luca said: Added to Exor why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, throw123 said: why? I like the business, good management, opportunistic acquisitions, valuable steaks at a discount to NAV, shareholder friendly, promising goals of growth. Do you have a different opinion regarding exor? Let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 On top of it, one of the value investors i respect (Guy Spier), has a meaningful position in them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throw123 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Luca said: I like the business, good management, opportunistic acquisitions, valuable steaks at a discount to NAV, shareholder friendly, promising goals of growth. Do you have a different opinion regarding exor? Let me know. i looked at it years ago but decided against investing in it, your post made me look to see what the stock has done since then but appears not too have done much. It seems to always trade at a discount to NAV as i recall the same bull arguments back then. Also not sure anything in particular pops out to me as showing good management, capital allocation and growth. Ultimately that's what you are buying, is managements ability to allocate capital effectively. Essentially I was on the fence back then but what convinced me not to invest was when i saw Elkann take a helicopter to his Shareholder meeting. I always worry that family run and controlled companies could be used as a piggy bank and that behavior is ripe in Italy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 @throw123 Exors overhead costs are pretty low though, despite the helicoptering. Exor always will trade at a discount to BNAV, that's a feature, not a bug, imo. I would not add right now to my smallish position, but when the discount to NAV blows out, I certainly would buy more, which is the way those Holdco's should be traded or invested in. Right now, I consider it a solid hold. I never liked the foray into Insurance years ago (buying PRE) but they managed to get out with a decent exit. Now the big question what they do with the excess cash from the insurance sale proceeds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, throw123 said: i looked at it years ago but decided against investing in it, your post made me look to see what the stock has done since then but appears not too have done much. It seems to always trade at a discount to NAV as i recall the same bull arguments back then. Also not sure anything in particular pops out to me as showing good management, capital allocation and growth. Ultimately that's what you are buying, is managements ability to allocate capital effectively. Essentially I was on the fence back then but what convinced me not to invest was when i saw Elkann take a helicopter to his Shareholder meeting. I always worry that family run and controlled companies could be used as a piggy bank and that behavior is ripe in Italy. So your points are: 1. Nothing pops out to me as showing good management, capital allocation and growth. 2. Elkann took a helicopter to the shareholder meeting. 3. You are worried that Exor is used as a bank for the family, takes advantage of shareholders (issuing shares, selling shares) 4. According to you, many Italian conglomerates do that. To comment on point 1: Thats a 17.6% CAGR. Elkann did a lot of good things for exor that strenghtened their businesses on all fronts, good acquisitions (crysler), reorganisation that made the businesses worth a lot more, good returns on sales of business parts, entering new sectors, understand which sectors are attractive. It wouldnt surprise me if they beat the Index significantly long term! 2. Where you at the meeting, where is that info from? 3. Is there any sign they are using shareholders as a piggy bank? I disagree. 4. Exor is Exor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brk64311 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 US EXOR holders - are you considering the tax complication due to PFIC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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