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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. It should be back up to normal speed. Please report any issues on this thread going forward...that way I can have the IT guys inspect the problem. Cheers!
  2. For your viewing pleasure: https://www.cnn.com/business/economic-growth-indicators?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon Cheers!
  3. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/25/business/sears-kmart-last-holiday-shopping-season/index.html Once the equivalent of Walmart and Amazon combined...soon to be forgotten and lost in business lore! Cheers!
  4. I've sent an inquiry to our host/service provider. I was having the same issue myself, but I thought it might be related to the flooding issues we’ve had in Vancouver, and some slowdown in service with our internet provider locally. Should have an answer shortly. Cheers!
  5. Thanks for the great response posts Glider...much appreciated! Cheers!
  6. Good to bring this post around again, as we are now entering the season of imbibing! Please update your current refreshments in your cabinets you are tasting, or plan on buying for the yuletide season. Cheers! You can't get this everywhere unfortunately, but for the last three years I have been drinking a fair amount of this Empress Gin made by Victoria Distillers and the Fairmont Empress hotel: https://victoriadistillers.com/ http://www.bcliquorstores.com/product/6968 Really is fantastic by itself or in mixed drinks! Cheers!
  7. Long-term, maybe a portfolio of FFH and an S&P500 ETF is the way to go. We know that FFH has little correlation to the S&P500 and tends to do better in down markets. At the same time, most growth stocks are represented in the S&P500, which Fairfax rarely invests in. This is what I've told my brother to do for the family accounts if something happens to me...1/3rd FFH, 1/3rd S&P500 and 1/3rd cash to put to work when markets turn down in a big way. It's simple, low-cost and effective for the long-term...while letting him and his family sleep at night. Cheers!
  8. He fired Sokol after almost a similar matter of semantics...is he going to remove Howard from the board? Cheers!
  9. It's hard to drink Dom Perignon at full price, when you are doing just fine with Two Buck Chuck at 50% off! In other words, hard-core distressed value investors don't like paying 18-20 times earnings for anything...even JNJ! Cheers!
  10. A member asked for a separate John Malone Related Companies board, which isn't really possible without adding more boards for other companies. So the next best thing is a separate thread solely for all of the various companies he is/was involved with. Feel free to discuss all of them on here or stuff related to them. Cheers!
  11. Thank you Viking! But I'm sure Greg will respond with "If any decent CEO was running Fairfax, they would get rid of Blackberry! What a POS! C'mon guys...been a 7 year turnaround already!" And with that..."bring in the young guys who are hungrier!" Cheers!
  12. Yeah, I was going to remind you of that. Cheers!
  13. Long-term that only works if the cash flows are consistent or growing. Buybacks of a business with declining cash flow does not have the same positive effect. Cheers!
  14. I remember when people were saying that Buffett should have retired...ironically back in early 2001 when Buffett was in his early 70's. A well known money manager who worked for Michael Lee-Chin at AIC Funds was sitting next to me at the Berkshire AGM (my first), and said to one of his associates that when he gets back to the office on Monday, he's selling all of the Berkshire in the funds he was managing for AIC...these were his exact words, "Look at these guys, they look nearly dead!" I had just put my entire net worth in Berkshire B's 14-18 months earlier when it bottomed out at about 0.8 times book! Interestingly enough, I've got about half my net worth in Fairfax stock for the last 14-18 months bought below 0.65 times book, and here we have jokers screaming for Prem to hand over the reins. Hope history repeats itself! Cheers!
  15. The problem I have of buybacks below intrinsic value is that intrinsic value is a range in valuation based on certain assumptions of cash flow. If you are incorrect on the cash flow assumptions, you are paying up for those shares...think Eddie Lampert and Sears. Buying below book, at least earnings are accretive and book value per share rises. I think the best type of buyback is buying below tangible book, which is what Jefferies was doing over the past 24-36 months. When you can buy back shares below tangible book, not only is it fully accretive on a per share basis, but you exclude intangibles and goodwill which is where the subjectiveness of cash flow assumptions comes from. You are literally buying back shares below liquidation value! Cheers
  16. You don't think Buffett learns at his age? He bought BYD, AAPL and BABA in his 80's and 90's. There is no limit or age that restricts a person's ability to learn. I also don't understand this compulsive lie that is perpetuated about Prem not changing his ways or learning. As you stated, he's a self-made billionaire, who continues to make money...what exactly do you expect of him...to walk on water?! Frickin' morons on here who are sitting on net worths of a few million dollars at best (yes, I'm shitting on my own audience) espousing how a self-made billionaire needs to get his shit together! Yes, bring on the younger and hungrier jackasses who think they can make money consistently over a five year record instead of a lifetime. Cheers!
  17. As long as the buybacks are below book and accretive to earnings and value per share, then you have two benefits...avoidance of tax on dividends and accretion of earnings. So it's not just taxes that make the difference. I would not want Prem or Buffett buying back shares above book...Buffett is doing so, Prem is not so far. Berkshire shareholders may be better off taking the dividend at purchases at 1.2 times book or higher instead of buybacks. Cheers!
  18. This is and should be a massive concern for everyone except the underground/criminal economy. This is a $3T market now and I would imagine is significantly starting to hit the pocketbooks of nation states who cannot/have not been collecting taxes on this business. As this becomes larger, I can only imagine a huge crackdown. The fear is what dominoes fall if the price of cryptos fall when some sort of day of reckoning arrives. Cheers!
  19. Value investors didn't have a problem with Amazon itself, but with the losses Bezos was sustaining in the early days. Investors understood what Bezos was trying to do, but weren't sure how he was going to get there. Bitcoin in this analogy would not be Amazon, but an Amazon product. Basically an item being sold through an online portal/channel. Blockchain technology would be Amazon...and I have been one of the proponents of blockchain technology for about 7 years now since Overstock.com/Patrick Byrne first introduced me to it through the creation of tZero. I have a problem with most of the current batch of crypto...not digital currencies themselves. Cheers!
  20. On the contrary, I'm a proponent of gold in place of fiat currencies. Gold, silver and other commodities actually have a utility value...not just as store of value because of scarcity. Why would I own BTC, if I could hold coffee beans or wheat? They have more utility and less volatility than BTC. In actuality, virtually anything (even my poop) has more utility than BTC. Hey, but I'm an old goat who doesn't understand these new fangled things. My mint Wayne Gretzky rookie card actually carries more value because of scarcity than BTC! Let's get Opee-Chee to issue 100,000 new Gretzky rookie cards and release only 1,000 every year for the next 100 years. Then real estate agents, car dealers, Amazon, Overstock, etc will all start accepting Wayne Gretzky rookie cards for purchases. We can then start a company that issues wallets to hold fractions of our Wayne Gretzky rookie cards...we'll break each one into millions of fractional pieces. Because of the limited supply, the prices of the cards will continue to go up and they will be an alternative store of value for the US dollar. Sounds like a wonderful idea, since the energy costs of printing 100,000 cards would be nothing like the energy costs to mine cryptocurrencies. Cheers!
  21. OMERS is about a related party as Markel or Lloyds of London. Fairfax does business with OMERS...there are no overlapping officers or directors...it is not a related party. The dutch auction puts a collar on the stock, allows Fairfax to buy back shares, without the daily restrictions of a normal course issuer bid. At the same time, the issuance of the security to OMERS indicates to the public the true fair value of ORH, while allowing Fairfax the ability to buy back the position in the long-term. Fairfax does not want to give up that stake in ORH, but did so to reflect the true value of the company and announce the dutch auction. If the dutch auction has its desired effect, Fairfax can use what cash is not utilized in the buyback, plus profits from the TRS to buy back its position in ORH with nominal cost. Cheers!
  22. I agree with you on this. I think this was just another way of showing the underlying value of the insurance businesses, force the price up based on the reality that Fairfax will buy any stock tendered up to $500 USD, without having to exercise the TRS or continue buying under the normal course issuer bid...which was not having the desired effect of closing the gap between intrinsic value. This achieved what they wanted from all aspects. Worst thing that will happen is that they buy a few hundred thousand shares at $500 USD to retire. By the time they close, 4th quarter renewals will be coming in and they will have the remaining cash on hand to consider buying back their position from OMERS some time next year. Cheers!
  23. It was trading above book just 2 years ago...so we haven't been talking about this for years. Of course markets want to see fundamental change at the company, but parlor tricks only work for the short-term...they won't raise the price on a permanent basis. Solid improvements in the operations and investments at the company is what the market is recognizing...slowly but surely. Cheers!
  24. Digital scarcity - has no effect on tangible value or utility. Programmed deflationary trajectory - only until all coins are mined. Immutability - Yes, but can be replaced with tangible digital currency. Blockchain rails - This is not isolated to BTC...anything can have blockchain rails. Network effect - Again, not isolated to BTC...a national digital currency would have more stability, usability and would have extensive network expansion. Attraction of brains incentivized and motivated to improve the network - These same brains and ideas could easily be adapted to digital currencies which have more stability, liquidity, usability and require no energy to mine. Ethereum is a Turing complete machine - thus my question about the value of BTC, not Ethereum. Cheers!
  25. U.S. dollar is supported by its tax revenue base and all national assets (resources, technology, patents, property, etc). Both BTC and the Packer's certificates have nothing tangible backing them...simply digital scarcity. Cheers!
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