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dealraker

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dealraker last won the day on September 16 2023

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  1. I don't have Parsad's type clarity or confidence - or his all around skill - so I settle in with an old man's method. But by dang, reading Parsad has made me one hell of a lot of money. As I often write, this is a great forum. I mostly follow three posters, Greg, Spek, and Parsad. My mental energy can't get too far before wearing plum out. But this is enough for me and I just love it.
  2. Having no settle up date nor fear of time based lower stock quotes is the privilege and/or the decision of a very few. It is somewhat liberating to be "I simply want to be in this business" focused rather having your mind racing through an endless array of complex variables- most of which the batting average to correctly predict is just awful. To me, at least from my 50 year investment perspective, the investment model that demands predicting things like recessions laced with the gotta-beat-the-market mindset slide in a heavy burden on investors, and basically all fail in attempting both. But again I'm admittedly a long-long-long way off in my own little wonderland of total concentration towards a model of guaranteed not failing rather than beating someone. Back in 2009, about March 9th or whatever, my next door neighbor who had lost her husband to cancer came over in near emotional collapse mode asking, "Charlie...have I lost my dead husbands hard earned money and his life insurance by not selling?" I replied, "Are you selling the trucking company?" She responded, "Hell no! He'd come back and haunt me!" She and her sister-in-law own a long-long-long lived multi-generational private trucking co in High Point, NC. I said back to her, "Angela (that's her name...same as my wife's) I just participate; I don't predict." We went from 125 employees in the builders supply down to 22 part time back then. Last year, with 30-some employees we made many multiple times the money we made with 125 employees pre financial crisis during a early 2000's housing boom. We've made multiples times that earlier period for 5 years in a row. Business. Business is fun and honestly not too hard to figure out in most cases. Economic cycles and stock prices? Not my thing.
  3. coffeecaninvestor I am reasonably cautious as to making a statement on that even given that there are new entrants (relatively new anyway) such as RYAN, Baldwin (BRP), and Goosehead that have obviously attained some success. I did for a short time have a small investment in BRP, but sold and am not following it. I do not follow these three just listed though so you'll have to read here (past posts) as to those and our posters views- views I'd give positive credit too for sure. longterminvestor, spekulatius, and gfp...I'd read their stuff if you haven't. Some time ago Fairfax's (they owned 40%) even listed on the NYSE for a short time. That was the most successful shorter term investment I've ever made - unfortunately Fairfax/Prem decided to sell it - so yes your statement and question above has merit. As longterminvestor mentioned on RYAN....well, there are opportunities. That's why I occasionally post - keeping this thread alive should be a profitable endeavor with little long term risk of capital loss. So we should occasionally come aboard here to mention things, and of course that's what I'm trying to do. We have some quite capable posters here, some good sound investing should come of it. I just love a good business, a long term business to hold and discuss. I get attached my wife says, I don't like to let go. She says I have not only "relationships with people" that are meaningful, but also "relationships with things, concepts, and models" that I stay with. Rambling, good night.
  4. Incidentally I'll add that my friend mentioned above never went to college of any sort and began working in the business at 18. Based on the numbers he let out last night I'd guess his operation is worth a minimum of $50 million via a sale to AJG.
  5. So here goes another somewhat on topic but not specific to a stock chirping from me, so beware and tolerate...or not. Last night my bright ass decided that we'd go by boat to my insurance agency owner friends house to have dinner. This is a 8-ish mile boat trek which is hampered by the fact that my wife has just gotten a second bunion surgery. Let me tell you something, these bunion surgeries are painful and long-recovery things. Life sort of gets shut down for someone well over 50 who had one of these operations and they need assistance. Logistical clear thinking and some work got us successfully boating there and we had a great time. Then just as we re-mounted the boat to go home all living hell broke out with winds and thunderstorms. Warm water and being able to go slow and stay close to shore (an easy swim should we sink- being silly but you know there's always the chance) made it somewhat humorously stressful to spend the hour plus of time on the journey. We made it home and I got her into the house engaging one wet slippery place after another. We get this boat (we have a few) into the covered (normally dry but not last night with horizontal rain) with ease without having to get out to do anything...so that part worked well. But slippery and bunion work are't compatible at all. But anyway the conversation, laced with $100 bottles of wine (I'm a light drinker but my friend isn't), got the chattin' both alive and revealing and for a while it went "business". Anyway his business is a very large (for North Carolina) insurance commission one, it is incredibly profitable (he has two multi-million dollar homes and is one of our largest local real estate owners), and he said again last night the big boys...especially AJ Gallagher...come calling every week. He says they come disguised at times...no not in some Trojan Horse manner of evil, but in forms of "come on dude...we're gunna give you so much money you don't know what to do with it all." Anyway, I'm just telling you guys that this business, the one we too can invest in, continues to be slam-damn wonderful. Makes me endlessly wonder, and we discussed this last night, when it is going to end! When's Amazon "your profit is my gain" gunna come? My friend says he runs that issure through his mind all the time, yet he still thinks nothing is anywhere close to ruining this gravy train. My guess is there will be something fairly soon (a year or two) that interrupts both the insurance pricing upturn and the stock prices too of the publicly traded US brokers. To me, for those not here yet, it will probably be a wonderful buying opportunity if, and only if, history repeats itself. My guess is history will repeat itself! Generalized thinking such as this isn't much credited with being significant as to making money investing. We go into great detail often and my past is literally full of massive invasive accounting projects that I did to determine investment potential. Over time I moved on some from this, I saw far too many others making hay without huge amounts of work or analysis. And I got my lifelong biggest eye-opening realizing that selling too soon was the typical investors worst mistake particularly if made on a basis of "the PE is 25....oh boy gotta run for the hills" and such. So I'm just slobbering around on a topic here, but it is one to keep on the shelf for use at some point for some of you. No spell check here, I'm conversationally rambling.
  6. Hey Ralf...just remembering that I read your earlier message while moving Pax into an apartment just north on hwy 49 of the Charlotte campus, he's beginning graduate school in architecture. On a mission of 24/7 assistance right now as bunion surgery has me in the help mode full time all day LOL. Oh lordy. Lexington BBQ is goooooood stuff.
  7. Being a month from 70 I am physically active and capable. But age is more than a number and I'm constantly grinding through health issues as are most at my age. I have no suggestions for others dealing with aging other than Mungers "soldier on" without complaint. And maybe be thankful for today's medical technology.
  8. When Spek was chanting up a couple of the defense stocks RTX and LHX I bought them at what seemed good values (why Spek was there), the prices fell some and it was rational to buy more...and now the prices are up 20% or so. But from my experience I'd never chase up a defense name based on projected spending as to current/future ongoing or potential conflicts. I already owned the other names and had added to GD a tad but I have no interest in adding based on expected increases in military spending. I've seen this theme switch directions too many times.
  9. The unflattering truth is that while I've owned the brokers except for BRP and RYAN since 1994 I've only added to BRO and WTW since then and that proves I'm not in any way a good caller on these thus far delightful businesses. I just keep thinking - for instance - that BRO is expensive, and it never turns out that way, and 41% of my net worth as to stocks is my AJG shares so I'm not going to buy more. I did influence my investment club to buy AJG at $36 or so in 2015 (or whenever it dropped...and was selling for 15x with a 3.8% div), but personally didn't buy more. I did buy AJG for my wife's parents trust recently at $185 and sometime in the early 2000's period my brother-in-law asked me to "manage" $800,000k of his stuff and I impulsively told him to put it all into BRO---- which he did! That was a home run for him, but it wasn't some well-thought out analysis from me and he has so much money he doesn't know what to do with it so I wasn't at all worried that he would get hurt making a large commitment there and I figured at worst it would do pretty good.
  10. long term investments so you can spend your time with on your family, your business and your hobbies while time works its magic on your investments. Re-reading the post of course I meant real estate "or" bank CD's. A distinct memory of mine, one experienced many times in my high school through my 20's, was witnessing men talking about the stocks of Coke and Pepsi. Coke and Pepsi were two of the growth stocks that were constantly discussed...but what I remember the most of all is hearing these men stating the trading of these stocks, not holding them. Yes it was always a buy and sell themed discussion. This wasn't the men in my investment club who were not fast in-and-out traders, this was out in the public discussion by the men my father's age who I knew well. My internal response to these discussions was continually, "Why do they do this? Those that held and lived a while easily had 100 + bagger returns, no decisions after buying needed.
  11. I appreciate your participation on this forum. I sold BRP based on the clarity you brought to the table and never looked back. When I was younger, and poorer, I'd have spent far more time doing my DD, but I've gotten lazy I guess. LOL! Thanks again longterminvestor.
  12. I'm too a gfp admirer. One of the things that's in the past been pretty cool for those of us four decade plus owners of the Berkshire stock is that we've developed an almost - but not entirely - foolproof model for times to buy the stock that almost guarantee you a starting point that's quite good. And while that model is somewhat based on price to book, or was based on that, it mostly just involves buying Berkshire when the stock has lagged the market...and generally lagged by a whole lot. That's available because the businesses overall within Berkshire provide something we understand and have some fairly accuracte predictive abilities with. Will this situation sustain? Who knows? Rambling.
  13. So in my investment club which began in 1954 there are of course no original members but I'd guess that all the original guys (it is and has always been all men) owned Berkshire and I know for certain all 25 (it has always been 25 men) current members own Berkshire. And none trade it. Most have owned it for 35 plus years, we are an old bunch. My family (brother and sister) and family business (all my 1st cousins)...everybody individually has owned Berkshire for decades and the business too. Online? Well, I'm aware of a couple of long term owners but not many. Most online investors are obsessed with beating Mr. Market while I haven't heard that term from any of my family or anyone in the club. We do compare ourselves to the market in the club over time and individually but there's no outward effort expressed to beat Mr. Market. I'd say online investors communicate and interact in such a manner that it pretty much mandates an all out effort to outperform the the market constantly. To me that means when Berkshire, the stock, goes up fast it will be sold by nearly everyone. Personally my focus is on investing where I think the outcome is better than buying CD's at the bank. That's an old fashioned thing, the crowd I grew up with pretty much either bought rental real estate of bank CD's, those of us in the investment club were sort of unique in our near 100% allocation to stocks 50 ago...it just never changed for those I have close relationships with.
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