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And Trump does what Trump does, there's 55 plus years of it laid open for view. He creates total chaos, his tag along's elope into some bizarre claims of success while others gape at what is complete failure, failure, and more failure. Trump sneaks in his paychecks, one after another, always plain out in the open corruption. 2nd grade special needs kids can make that determination but the tag along's choose not to. Why? You got it! Trump looks the part. He's got the John Wayne thing. It takes 1 and 1/2 hours of makeup, hair preparation, and massive body enhancements within the black suit, but we get there. Different voices, unique childlike facial expressions, it all sells and sells to the tag along crowd. All these years for Trump and there's no legitimate business for his "wealth" only scam bezel fake shit. Yet it works, and works, and works, the more stretch his followers do to legitimize - the more committed they are to believe. Bookmark this if you are young because this is the craziest garbage you will ever see in your lifetime. The next person who tries this shit won't have success such as this. Trump owns the world...for now. My extended family of businessmen, some fabulously wealthy remind me that I'm not coming up with the main theme that allows all this to happen. They tell me it is fear, that no matter how much wealth or power anyone has today they all fall in line with this fruitcake goofball because of fear.

For simple clarification:

Rapid rate increases, long length of time rate increases, and expanding broker stock PE multiples - while the "how long" isn't known...these guarantee other side-of-the-mountain outcomes. Wasn't intrinsic value actually being pressured downwards by sure-to-be-reversed or stagnated rate escalation - unsustainable rate increases? When the stock price of AJG for instance was getting higher and higher PE multiples...wasn't the future obvious - but timeline unknown? Stock prices Intrinsic value growth Rate cycle I think the three above move separately, not in unison. Isn't the best time to invest in times of violent rate decline times, when stock prices have been clobbered? It seems to me the progress of the business is much more steady than rates or stock prices. The business is emotionally stable; rates are "party late" and "sleep in" by nature; and stock prices are clearly manic depressive. Time of change for the three? Somewhat unknown, but the past is likely to give guidance. We also have AI affecting likely all three of the above, or at least it eventually will. I label this 100% unknown as to its affect.

I like Greg, Reds, and Pupil's comments on this subject. The size of every investment for me is determined by how I will feel and respond given a 50 percent or more decline in price quote...on a situation or news I may be uncomfortable with.

Those who like or use Trump for their gains whether real or not are going to claim massive success- total success- no matter the outcome. This is the way it works. So yes the win is possible; Trump always wins with some. Given Trump's age and his short life span to come it won't be long until those proclaiming his success are invisible and ignored. New politicians are soon to rock the world of the US of A.

I think Trump gears others into fantasy. What's the probability of this wild success in Iran, all the change hoped for? Of all people, what in the world makes us think of all people that Donald Trump can orchestrate anything like this? Donald is always a net negative for others; he's always scrapes a paycheck for failed endeavors. He's done it consistently for 55 years. Trump is running away from accountability and he will succeed at this, he always does. Do the rest of us gain from what he does? There's increasingly more stuff that Don needs to distract us from. His actions are going to be many, trivial, off topic, but all will gain huge media. Trump looks increasingly unhealthy and frail. My guess is this will orchestrate some crazy shit.

These are superb to watch. Trump just found another napping spot, a costly one given the 40 auto motorcade.

LOL, I think it just means lengthy chaos!

Wherever it goes and when it goes is unknown. What's 99.99999999999% certain is that there will be a fire in the theater when every investor in the world will be trying to get out fast at any price. PE multiples are the most irrelevant measure of bubbles, they are meaningless. Yet the successful "sell" today focuses on them to make the sustainable case. That said, I don't think we are near the top yet, gotta have some more fun first.

Yesterday Angela and I went down the road a bit and toured Aberdeen Carolina and Western Railway. This business is one for the fantasy of anyone who can fathom a man buying something that had 800 carloads a year and taking it to 16,000 car loads a year. Then on top of that he's created an entertainment division... The day absolutely blew my mind as it relates to business. This type of thing is precisely what my family has tried to do, successfully but not nearly as successfully as this guy. The big rails have taken the easy route, just cut-cut-and cut some more and plug in financial gimmickry to make the CEO bonus...and then retire to hand it to the next smart manipulative cookie. All with stagnant sales and carloads. If nothing else? It is called boring, boring, and more boring. Sales people...where are the sales big boys? The model that works: https://www.acwr.com/

When AJ Gallagher was near $350 a share it represented 42% of my net worth as to publicly traded securities. It now is going for $210. I can sit here as I type and try my best to be upset about this, but honestly it doesn't seem to gain traction. The business of AJ Gallagher? Performing pretty much as I expected. My best guess given 50 years experience? That the real threat is to some other entity I own the stock of...I'm just not smart enough to know what that situation is.

I guess I found where this discussion briefly has gone to be annoying, particularly given the sophistication of so many here. Waves of interest come and go as to what's the latest obsession, and Prem Watsa and Fairfax can be one of those in focus from time to time. As Buffett recently said, "This is nothing." The stock price of Fairfax has barely moved anywhere excessive or important, or meaningfully anywhere. Investors are obsessed with AI, a stock like Fairfax is a big zero to all but a tiny-tiny-tiny few. I can't imagine the "concern" when, and it surely will, the stock moves yet again with gusto one direction or another- a certainty in time. Did you actually lose money/permanent capital loss style when it "fell" in price recently or is it more accurate to say "you've lost your mind" to be hyper-focused on an over time non-event?

Along with many other experiences and things as related to Fairfax I have the book that Viking sent me. I look at that book every single day as it sits on my shelf. Those things solidify my decision to yawn about today's stock price.

Decades ago when I was a Fairfax shareholder I thought that the stock would never get much above 1.5 times book value. I was trained as an insurance and bank stock analyst and that training was substantial and included valuations of the past and expected future. Fairfax quickly went to 4 times book value. Fact.