dealraker

Yep.

When Spek was chanting up a couple of the defense stocks RTX and LHX I bought them at what seemed good values (why Spek was there), the prices fell some and it was rational to buy more...and now the prices are up 20% or so. But from my experience I'd never chase up a defense name based on projected spending as to current/future ongoing or potential conflicts. I already owned the other names and had added to GD a tad but I have no interest in adding based on expected increases in military spending. I've seen this theme switch directions too many times.

The unflattering truth is that while I've owned the brokers except for BRP and RYAN since 1994 I've only added to BRO and WTW since then and that proves I'm not in any way a good caller on these thus far delightful businesses. I just keep thinking - for instance - that BRO is expensive, and it never turns out that way, and 41% of my net worth as to stocks is my AJG shares so I'm not going to buy more. I did influence my investment club to buy AJG at $36 or so in 2015 (or whenever it dropped...and was selling for 15x with a 3.8% div), but personally didn't buy more. I did buy AJG for my wife's parents trust recently at $185 and sometime in the early 2000's period my brother-in-law asked me to "manage" $800,000k of his stuff and I impulsively told him to put it all into BRO---- which he did! That was a home run for him, but it wasn't some well-thought out analysis from me and he has so much money he doesn't know what to do with it so I wasn't at all worried that he would get hurt making a large commitment there and I figured at worst it would do pretty good.

long term investments so you can spend your time with on your family, your business and your hobbies while time works its magic on your investments. Re-reading the post of course I meant real estate "or" bank CD's. A distinct memory of mine, one experienced many times in my high school through my 20's, was witnessing men talking about the stocks of Coke and Pepsi. Coke and Pepsi were two of the growth stocks that were constantly discussed...but what I remember the most of all is hearing these men stating the trading of these stocks, not holding them. Yes it was always a buy and sell themed discussion. This wasn't the men in my investment club who were not fast in-and-out traders, this was out in the public discussion by the men my father's age who I knew well. My internal response to these discussions was continually, "Why do they do this? Those that held and lived a while easily had 100 + bagger returns, no decisions after buying needed.

I appreciate your participation on this forum. I sold BRP based on the clarity you brought to the table and never looked back. When I was younger, and poorer, I'd have spent far more time doing my DD, but I've gotten lazy I guess. LOL! Thanks again longterminvestor.

I'm too a gfp admirer. One of the things that's in the past been pretty cool for those of us four decade plus owners of the Berkshire stock is that we've developed an almost - but not entirely - foolproof model for times to buy the stock that almost guarantee you a starting point that's quite good. And while that model is somewhat based on price to book, or was based on that, it mostly just involves buying Berkshire when the stock has lagged the market...and generally lagged by a whole lot. That's available because the businesses overall within Berkshire provide something we understand and have some fairly accuracte predictive abilities with. Will this situation sustain? Who knows? Rambling.

So in my investment club which began in 1954 there are of course no original members but I'd guess that all the original guys (it is and has always been all men) owned Berkshire and I know for certain all 25 (it has always been 25 men) current members own Berkshire. And none trade it. Most have owned it for 35 plus years, we are an old bunch. My family (brother and sister) and family business (all my 1st cousins)...everybody individually has owned Berkshire for decades and the business too. Online? Well, I'm aware of a couple of long term owners but not many. Most online investors are obsessed with beating Mr. Market while I haven't heard that term from any of my family or anyone in the club. We do compare ourselves to the market in the club over time and individually but there's no outward effort expressed to beat Mr. Market. I'd say online investors communicate and interact in such a manner that it pretty much mandates an all out effort to outperform the the market constantly. To me that means when Berkshire, the stock, goes up fast it will be sold by nearly everyone. Personally my focus is on investing where I think the outcome is better than buying CD's at the bank. That's an old fashioned thing, the crowd I grew up with pretty much either bought rental real estate of bank CD's, those of us in the investment club were sort of unique in our near 100% allocation to stocks 50 ago...it just never changed for those I have close relationships with.

About the only thing an investor needs to know/be aware of. Seemed inevitable to me, just nearly certain to happen over time...a long time.

Yes but it does go somewhat further that the starting point during a positive investor view is simply going to be somewhat negative as to outcome vs a starting point that's questioning the model. I wasn't aware enough to sell the stock when obviously it, the business and stock, wasn't performing all that well. But I have bought/added the stock over 30 times in the last several years. Thus the outcome is crazy good despite... So while it is up to Fairfax on how to deal with the MW accusations it is up to the investor to deal with stock ownership. I don't think any of us are capable of avoiding negative blasts or accusations, but I do think that even if some of the accusations are accurate that it is up to the investor to judge that effect on your decisions as to stock ownership. A great example as I've mentioned so many times is the insurance broker contingency commissions, something that I considered quite accurate as to Spitzer's complaint. Yet that was buying euphoria, not selling manadate, time. In hindsight (remember I owned but did not buy more) while I have made many millions on these investments I, likely one of the most knowledgable investors holding the stocks, was the main idiot in the room for not buying more. Knowing yourself, monitoring yourself, rather than trying to control the wild-ass happenings as to "shorts" or whatever the hell they are? Well we just watched a Super Bowl, that quarterback that went on the field seemed to control himself rather impressively ----- despite having quite the yard sale of a game up until the overtime. Who are you? The mirror tells all. We all can't live by the grievance...but it is the popular theme of the world today. Fairfax? To me it is a place to be invested and probably will be far less risky from here that some of the most trusted and successful technology stocks that are likely (in my view) not in any way shape or form capable of giving investors what they expect going forward.

Of course I meant GE for Welch.

In essence I put my semantic stop sign in place decades ago and morphed into a trust for Prem and Co. It has felt good for me the entire time. Stock prices though don't much affect me except for their making me feel like a living fossil as to being in the moment. I don't think I've ever, in my 50 years of adult investing, seen anything as intense as the praise given to Greenberg at AIG and Welch at GE while everything was questioned and condemned relating to Buffett and Berkshire in the years 1999-2002. In other words any panic or fear we have towards Fairfax might better be steered towards something else- the things that always develop towards the end of long booms particularly in the admired businesses.

vakilkp, as usual I didn't pen my post very well. What I mean to say is that if you are in this for some duration that it will be inevitable that a number of these type "inverventions" come, that even the best company can't avoid them. And that us long termers who sloff these events off, even if somewhat true, tend to do well. And the last part of that is that if you do overweight an investment? Well, you better have some courage to endure what, no matter how much praise the group gives, is going to happen to every business over time. I'll add to this post that during and shortly after the financial crisis I had knowledge of and understanding of a business called American Financial Group. I was 100% certain that it would be a near 10 bagger within 10 years. Yep, 100% certain. I made an anemic investment in AFG initially, then quadrupled it within a very short time. And yes I've made near 10 times my money. But I knew myself all too well, that this is precisely the type of business that could offer some exciting (and not in a positive) news and (on top of that) brokerage or short seller ammo for rip-it-up-tear-it-up shock value reports. So even with a huge belief? I just made the investment I could stomach given the all hell breaking loose of some investment entitiy looking for a bonanza short term outcome. So was my 100% the 100% I was feeling in the good times while discussing this with my former business partner who was intigating this deal's (investment) energy? Of course it was more like 99.9%...and yea some wild-ass claims would have the potential to send me to la-la land of panic selling. I'm natured to detest losing money rather than lust after the big returns, so I do have a potential fragile part of me that can sink the ship. Best know yourself first and foremost. Still positive on AFG though, not quite the return I expected but close.

And as is the norm Greg simplifies it correctly. I know people like me being sort of the right-brained summary type, the long holding older people that often get ignored (getting older is accepting that you are invisible...count on it coming to you if you live long)... but given I've been here a while... But this isn't Fairfax's first challenge, it isn't the last, and the very idea that this business can be investigaged and obsessed about such that all of it is understood by outsiders is illogical. But from my place what is logical is believing that management is far better than average and that you as an investor will do well with Fairfax. The road is bumpy and not linear. Ain't it awful? At some point recently I think Viking wrote about position sizing and that's important with all things. It is you looking at yourself in the mirror asking, "Can I handle this?"

Use a gun in defense in my part of the country and there's a pretty good chance you'll avoid criminal court. Civil? Well, that's another story. Finance 101.

Interesting...my always underperforming Willis stock is going up. Gotta find out why!