dealraker

Yep.

When Spek was chanting up a couple of the defense stocks RTX and LHX I bought them at what seemed good values (why Spek was there), the prices fell some and it was rational to buy more...and now the prices are up 20% or so. But from my experience I'd never chase up a defense name based on projected spending as to current/future ongoing or potential conflicts. I already owned the other names and had added to GD a tad but I have no interest in adding based on expected increases in military spending. I've seen this theme switch directions too many times.

The unflattering truth is that while I've owned the brokers except for BRP and RYAN since 1994 I've only added to BRO and WTW since then and that proves I'm not in any way a good caller on these thus far delightful businesses. I just keep thinking - for instance - that BRO is expensive, and it never turns out that way, and 41% of my net worth as to stocks is my AJG shares so I'm not going to buy more. I did influence my investment club to buy AJG at $36 or so in 2015 (or whenever it dropped...and was selling for 15x with a 3.8% div), but personally didn't buy more. I did buy AJG for my wife's parents trust recently at $185 and sometime in the early 2000's period my brother-in-law asked me to "manage" $800,000k of his stuff and I impulsively told him to put it all into BRO---- which he did! That was a home run for him, but it wasn't some well-thought out analysis from me and he has so much money he doesn't know what to do with it so I wasn't at all worried that he would get hurt making a large commitment there and I figured at worst it would do pretty good.

long term investments so you can spend your time with on your family, your business and your hobbies while time works its magic on your investments. Re-reading the post of course I meant real estate "or" bank CD's. A distinct memory of mine, one experienced many times in my high school through my 20's, was witnessing men talking about the stocks of Coke and Pepsi. Coke and Pepsi were two of the growth stocks that were constantly discussed...but what I remember the most of all is hearing these men stating the trading of these stocks, not holding them. Yes it was always a buy and sell themed discussion. This wasn't the men in my investment club who were not fast in-and-out traders, this was out in the public discussion by the men my father's age who I knew well. My internal response to these discussions was continually, "Why do they do this? Those that held and lived a while easily had 100 + bagger returns, no decisions after buying needed.

I appreciate your participation on this forum. I sold BRP based on the clarity you brought to the table and never looked back. When I was younger, and poorer, I'd have spent far more time doing my DD, but I've gotten lazy I guess. LOL! Thanks again longterminvestor.

I'm too a gfp admirer. One of the things that's in the past been pretty cool for those of us four decade plus owners of the Berkshire stock is that we've developed an almost - but not entirely - foolproof model for times to buy the stock that almost guarantee you a starting point that's quite good. And while that model is somewhat based on price to book, or was based on that, it mostly just involves buying Berkshire when the stock has lagged the market...and generally lagged by a whole lot. That's available because the businesses overall within Berkshire provide something we understand and have some fairly accuracte predictive abilities with. Will this situation sustain? Who knows? Rambling.

So in my investment club which began in 1954 there are of course no original members but I'd guess that all the original guys (it is and has always been all men) owned Berkshire and I know for certain all 25 (it has always been 25 men) current members own Berkshire. And none trade it. Most have owned it for 35 plus years, we are an old bunch. My family (brother and sister) and family business (all my 1st cousins)...everybody individually has owned Berkshire for decades and the business too. Online? Well, I'm aware of a couple of long term owners but not many. Most online investors are obsessed with beating Mr. Market while I haven't heard that term from any of my family or anyone in the club. We do compare ourselves to the market in the club over time and individually but there's no outward effort expressed to beat Mr. Market. I'd say online investors communicate and interact in such a manner that it pretty much mandates an all out effort to outperform the the market constantly. To me that means when Berkshire, the stock, goes up fast it will be sold by nearly everyone. Personally my focus is on investing where I think the outcome is better than buying CD's at the bank. That's an old fashioned thing, the crowd I grew up with pretty much either bought rental real estate of bank CD's, those of us in the investment club were sort of unique in our near 100% allocation to stocks 50 ago...it just never changed for those I have close relationships with.

About the only thing an investor needs to know/be aware of. Seemed inevitable to me, just nearly certain to happen over time...a long time.

Yes but it does go somewhat further that the starting point during a positive investor view is simply going to be somewhat negative as to outcome vs a starting point that's questioning the model. I wasn't aware enough to sell the stock when obviously it, the business and stock, wasn't performing all that well. But I have bought/added the stock over 30 times in the last several years. Thus the outcome is crazy good despite... So while it is up to Fairfax on how to deal with the MW accusations it is up to the investor to deal with stock ownership. I don't think any of us are capable of avoiding negative blasts or accusations, but I do think that even if some of the accusations are accurate that it is up to the investor to judge that effect on your decisions as to stock ownership. A great example as I've mentioned so many times is the insurance broker contingency commissions, something that I considered quite accurate as to Spitzer's complaint. Yet that was buying euphoria, not selling manadate, time. In hindsight (remember I owned but did not buy more) while I have made many millions on these investments I, likely one of the most knowledgable investors holding the stocks, was the main idiot in the room for not buying more. Knowing yourself, monitoring yourself, rather than trying to control the wild-ass happenings as to "shorts" or whatever the hell they are? Well we just watched a Super Bowl, that quarterback that went on the field seemed to control himself rather impressively ----- despite having quite the yard sale of a game up until the overtime. Who are you? The mirror tells all. We all can't live by the grievance...but it is the popular theme of the world today. Fairfax? To me it is a place to be invested and probably will be far less risky from here that some of the most trusted and successful technology stocks that are likely (in my view) not in any way shape or form capable of giving investors what they expect going forward.

Of course I meant GE for Welch.

In essence I put my semantic stop sign in place decades ago and morphed into a trust for Prem and Co. It has felt good for me the entire time. Stock prices though don't much affect me except for their making me feel like a living fossil as to being in the moment. I don't think I've ever, in my 50 years of adult investing, seen anything as intense as the praise given to Greenberg at AIG and Welch at GE while everything was questioned and condemned relating to Buffett and Berkshire in the years 1999-2002. In other words any panic or fear we have towards Fairfax might better be steered towards something else- the things that always develop towards the end of long booms particularly in the admired businesses.

vakilkp, as usual I didn't pen my post very well. What I mean to say is that if you are in this for some duration that it will be inevitable that a number of these type "inverventions" come, that even the best company can't avoid them. And that us long termers who sloff these events off, even if somewhat true, tend to do well. And the last part of that is that if you do overweight an investment? Well, you better have some courage to endure what, no matter how much praise the group gives, is going to happen to every business over time. I'll add to this post that during and shortly after the financial crisis I had knowledge of and understanding of a business called American Financial Group. I was 100% certain that it would be a near 10 bagger within 10 years. Yep, 100% certain. I made an anemic investment in AFG initially, then quadrupled it within a very short time. And yes I've made near 10 times my money. But I knew myself all too well, that this is precisely the type of business that could offer some exciting (and not in a positive) news and (on top of that) brokerage or short seller ammo for rip-it-up-tear-it-up shock value reports. So even with a huge belief? I just made the investment I could stomach given the all hell breaking loose of some investment entitiy looking for a bonanza short term outcome. So was my 100% the 100% I was feeling in the good times while discussing this with my former business partner who was intigating this deal's (investment) energy? Of course it was more like 99.9%...and yea some wild-ass claims would have the potential to send me to la-la land of panic selling. I'm natured to detest losing money rather than lust after the big returns, so I do have a potential fragile part of me that can sink the ship. Best know yourself first and foremost. Still positive on AFG though, not quite the return I expected but close.

And as is the norm Greg simplifies it correctly. I know people like me being sort of the right-brained summary type, the long holding older people that often get ignored (getting older is accepting that you are invisible...count on it coming to you if you live long)... but given I've been here a while... But this isn't Fairfax's first challenge, it isn't the last, and the very idea that this business can be investigaged and obsessed about such that all of it is understood by outsiders is illogical. But from my place what is logical is believing that management is far better than average and that you as an investor will do well with Fairfax. The road is bumpy and not linear. Ain't it awful? At some point recently I think Viking wrote about position sizing and that's important with all things. It is you looking at yourself in the mirror asking, "Can I handle this?"

Use a gun in defense in my part of the country and there's a pretty good chance you'll avoid criminal court. Civil? Well, that's another story. Finance 101.

Interesting...my always underperforming Willis stock is going up. Gotta find out why!

While her game sells and sells...at least from all the ads I see. And I can assure you I've not ever clicked on one.

Yes-yes-yes this is so correct, Munger's mention that linear can't be expected...

Elliott Spitzer, aka madame Heidi Fleiss connoisseur, was briskly chasing broker contingency commissions in the 2006 onwards period. It was, shall we say, a bucking/slamming ride!

Ha! Not too impressed with anything about NSC for a log time.

Some action in the rails world: Ancora-Led Group Takes Aim at Norfolk Southern, Pushes to Oust CEO Shaw Investors have $1 billion stake in railroad operator, plan fight for board control By Lauren Thomas and Esther Fung Updated Jan. 31, 2024 7:27 pm ET Norfolk Southern has met with the investor group in recent weeks. PHOTO: GENE J. PUSKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS An investor group led by Ancora Holdings has taken a big stake in Norfolk Southern NSC -0.68%decrease; red down pointing triangle and plans to run a proxy fight aimed at overhauling the railroad operator’s board and replacing its chief executive. The group has built a roughly $1 billion stake and nominated a majority slate of directors to Norfolk Southern’s board in a bid to oust Chief Executive Alan Shaw, according to people familiar with the matter. The director slate includes former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sameh Fahmy, who was an executive at railroad Kansas City Southern. The idea would be to take control of the board to effect changes aimed at boosting Norfolk Southern stock, which is down by about one-quarter from a high two years ago as revenue and profit fall. Norfolk Southern was the worst-performing stock last year of all the so-called Class 1 railroads that include Union Pacific , CSX and Canadian National Railway . Norfolk Southern has met with the investor group in recent weeks. In those private conversations, the group’s director nominees have zeroed in on a number of issues including how the company handled a big train derailment last year and what they see as Shaw’s failure to hit operating targets. Separately, hedge funds Sachem Head Capital Management and D.E. Shaw have recently been building their own stakes in Norfolk Southern, some of the people said. The size of those positions couldn’t be determined. Norfolk Southern is among the top-five largest railroad operators in North America by revenue. It operates across the eastern U.S. in 22 states and in Washington, D.C. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at roughly $54 billion. Norfolk Southern’s fourth-quarter results last week revealed a 19% decline in earnings and a 5% drop in revenue compared with year-earlier levels as railroads grapple with declining demand from lumber and coal suppliers, among others. The company, which has complained of a “stubbornly weak freight market,” said it focused on safety and service for much of 2023 and is aiming to improve productivity this year. Ahead of the report, the railroad operator told employees that it planned to lay off 7% of its nonunion workforce, including management and administrative staff, according to a memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal. “The overall macroeconomic environment and prolonged weak freight market has limited the amount of business we can attract, and our cost structure is too high for our top line,” CEO Shaw said in the memo. The dismal earnings report led multiple research analysts to downgrade the stock. “Norfolk has long been an underperforming self-help story that simply can’t figure out how to help themselves,” Stifel analysts wrote in a research note. The company’s stock fell after a toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, resulted in damaged cargo, fires and chemical releases across the area roughly a year ago. The accident led to scrutiny of Norfolk Southern’s safety practices, with costs associated with the derailment eclipsing $1 billion. NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP What’s News Catch up on the headlines, understand the news and make better decisions, free in your inbox daily. Enjoy a free article in every edition. Preview Subscribe Shaw, a Norfolk Southern employee since 1994, became CEO in 2022 and has faced a slew of challenges during his tenure. Bruising negotiations between unions and freight railroads in 2022 led President Biden to intervene to prevent a potentially damaging strike. Other hurdles for Norfolk Southern have included disruption because of extreme weather and supply-chain congestion. Norfolk Southern isn’t the only railroad to face shareholder pressure for change. Union Pacific, the largest freight-railroad operator in the U.S., last year named Jim Vena chief executive after a major shareholder urged the company’s board to oust Lance Fritz from the job. Union Pacific also announced staff cuts to put a lid on operating costs. Cleveland-based Ancora has nearly $9 billion in assets under management. Last year, the firm was successful in winning board seats at packaging supplier Berry Global and vehicle marketplace RB Global. It also played a key role in installing Tom Kingsbury as CEO at retailer Kohl’s , succeeding Michelle Gass after a deal to sell the business was scrapped. This time of year is typically when more proxy campaigns are launched and activists kick into high gear, as many companies’ windows for shareholder nominations open up ahead of annual meetings to be held in the spring. Disney is in the midst of a boardroom battle with Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management and Blackwells Capital.

Spek, I can't figure AJG because of its dividend being historically (not today) so much higher. My cousin though will do it for me if I ask. It certainly will be close.

For entertainment only: Brown and Brown has joined my 100 bagger list. Live long...and hold good businesses. Might not get Parsad's 19 (gotta be 20 plus now after his phenomenal year this year) percent... ...but it ain't too bad either!

I own all the railroads and owned them as HH passed through most with his game. A fossil model now, leapfrogged and down the road we go with the repairs needed from this obsession. I'm a long term investor, I complained when Buffett bought my BNSF and when KSC sold to CP while all others celebrated and bragged. Same when Prem sold my Hub Brokerage. Where do you find these long term superior businesses? Take your cash, pay the cap gain tax, and go shopping for another great business? Good luck. Same with operating ratio PSR focus. HH did it to several, the bolted or died. Problem is the HH model ain't gunna grow sales and as I predicted all the railroad stocks would stagnate in sales and price for years after these OR/PSR obsessions/buyback/cut cap ex/cut employees/cut lines/cut customers garbage all ended. Yea, some of it was excellent... New era now. It ain't simple PSR no more if you want a good outcome. Those days are as dead and burried as any model that ever existed.

Somehow my family made well over 100 times their money with Norfolk long before PSR came along. But what the hell, here's something that will really infuriate you. https://rsexpress.com/precision-scheduled-railroading/

Thanks LC.