dealraker

Uhh...not exactly.

Looting has an all time leader Cubs; that's your man! No one compares.

Lindsey Graham was a man with zero courage who was obsessed with his own relevance and preservation. His public behavior outside of politics was disgusting. His response to the Jan 6th killings make me puke.

The "history" or story we most often tell is one of over 60 years ago when General Robert F Sink (Bob, to the family) was at Easter Sunday lunch with all the brothers, their wives, and of course Granny Sink his mother...and majority owner of the newspaper - which in those days made her pretty much his and everybody else in town's commander in chief. Bob, as was the norm, injected "GD" into almost every sentence while not with his mom and he slipped up and used his adjective of choice at the table that day. I was ten years old but clearly remember Granny Sink calmly looking at him - amongst the deadly silence resulting from his inappropriate GD use - and saying, "Bob, you can leave the table now, I'll send for you when I'm ready for you to return." With a sheepish look on his face, while in full general uniform, Bob got up without saying a word and tiptoed away from the table. What Granny Sink as a teetotaler wasn't aware - but all the rest of us at the table were aware - is that Bob and all the boys (his brothers) kept bottles of liquor in the water tanks of the backs of the commodes at her house. I'm quite sure he just visited the bathroom and got a sip or two - smirking with silly enjoyment while waiting for his boss to pardon his punishment. By the way, as a kid and there were many of us, I was only allowed at the main long length dining table because Granny Sink's sister Mattie, a former mayor and city council woman of our town, had Alzheimer's. She'd often drop her false teeth while eating they'd fall under the table and/or her chair. My job sitting next to her was to fetch those teeth!

Cubs, if nothing else you are a fantastic read! Like most "economists" I'm not so sure you've got the benefaction/cause and effect in any form of reality... ...but at least you are consistent. That use of the word consistent is your praise of all things Trump. When do we put Trump in a straight Jacket and sit him restrained in a public place babbling his endless scrambled "plans" that will still sell ads for both wings of media enabling both to keep being profitable? If we could do so so I'll assure you Cubs that the "economy" and whatnot is going to be the same upcycle success---- at least for now.

There's a difference today though, the will, attention, spirit, and claims of success or failure of much of the US goes wherever Trump takes it. Even if its something that is blatantly false, whimsical, or fantasy - these successes, grievances, or whatever are spoken and written over and over again. Elections stolen, wars claimed won...these absolute claims come and go by the moment with Trump but red cappers are there for every step whatever the direction. When evidence proves overwhelming to such that it is impossible to escape then it is always default to tell a story some long ago liberal. Trump owns this era. He sells fabulously, success such that demand that his name must be in the title or subject of every ad or conversation. He sells a bizarre array of stuff - crazy fake stories, convenient fraud and scam, he sells that US white man fear- thus aggression- has the means to dominate the world. If you are younger, even as old as I am, it is relevant that Trump isn't likely going to live too much longer. I'm very interested in the post Trump world myself, it could get very interesting. Almost none of what Trump sells will sell well once he's gone. That's where the stimulating part of the story arrives. Nobody can sell the junk that Trump does, not even close.

Nothing I post should be taken as seriously as the typed words suggest. If or when you meet me in person you'll find that I'm conversational, that's in print and speech. I mostly enjoy interacting with those on the other sides of issues than me, there's nothing more of a let down than hanging out with like minded's...it puts me to sleep. The only things that bother me are the intense extremes, which tend to be over-displayed of course by our news sources. But they sell ads and selling is what most news today is about.

LOL, when you do return with a political post? It will be one to remember Greg!

When you start posting that Bill Clinton was responsible for both the late 1990's market and the budget surplus then I'll better understand where you are coming from.

Reds...my view and yes 100% my filter and it may be completely inaccurate: When I read your posts over the years I read "this poster is consistently intellectually dishonest." There's nothing wrong with going full bonkers far right with Gregmal, it isn't something I enjoy reading but it is a guy being honest with himself and others. Again, my bias and filter, but it is what it is. I give Trump no credit for the market or economy. Generally he significantly harms the entities he's involved with AS IT/THEY relate to others involved - while making good for himself. For the US? Yes, I think he does the same.

The issue is perfectly clear to me, that Trump is going to be able to do anything he wants as long as the economy and bull market sustain. We all know that both above are independent of politics, yet the popularity of politicians is dependent on such. If we had a declining market and economy I'm not so sure we wouldn't have our supreme leader hanging upside down by his tied up swollen legs by now. Wiser more stable true conservatives probably are sitting back thinking Trump is a relatively small time swindler that it is best to let him take-in a few billion doing scams; that this keeps out the liberals, it is a cost of doing business.

I'm not going to state much about the broker business as I'm not in any way up to date and feel that all I can offer is bias which isn't helpful. I do spend a lot of time with probably my best friend who is still in the business, he has a lake house that he lives in half the year that's a quarter mile from my home, so summer we are together often. His firm now is 45 people. Anyway we do generally talk the business at least some when we get together. What's interesting is the two things we most have watched affect the broker prices, that's soft markets and AI, are things he simply doesn't even mention. I do bring them up of course and he sort of comes back with what I'd call a "normal stuff" position. His most worrisome issue is that he doesn't want to sell the business, but he now doesn't want to be on task but 4 hours or so a day- he and his wife travel, and his two sons are not particularly motivated and honestly not very capable. He does have a middle age woman who he says can and for the most part - and actually does - run the business. This woman has a daughter who just graduated and joined the firm who my friend says, "She will be both my son's boss within a couple of years." He is delighted with the overall conditions of the insurance business, says opportunities are endless and competitors aren't a problem. This is a guy who never went to college, he joined his father's one man operation when he was 18, he's now 67. He's also an aggregator major owner, that is a 6 part ownership thing and he has personal and via his business ownership of 5/6th's, and there's one other 1/6th owner.

I bought BWIN for the two trusts I'm messing with and stuck with it. Up 33 percent but bought very little so it is not meaningful. I had bought AJG a couple years ago in both at $185 and now I'm game for a bit more of the brokers in these trusts. Decisions.

It was a bad day for public shareholders when Hub went private, the "pop" was typically celebrated but sorely disappointing. Back it comes.

Nice! Angela tugs me around London pretty often, sometimes for an entire week. Paris too. However, we both prefer to spend the majority of our time discovering in the nooks and crannies. We plan on spending time in Llandudno also on this trip and actually can walk there from where we will stay.

I much appreciate your posts on this topic Spek. I use them primarily for ideas for the two trusts I manage.

We've only discussed politics In detail with one man and then his family as we've formed a friendship. He has spent time in the US, he's an OBE designation rear admiral in the British military who deals in high level nuclear issues. Our bond was concerns about DJT and it went from there. We met him on a train in Switzerland. For whatever reason he found us to be interesting and it was his motivation that's energized the friendship, but we completely enjoy the connection.

Our loves: Hike a bit, do culture, history, and enjoy the beauty of the outdoors. Then hit the pub late afternoon and chat it up with locals. Its an obsession now, we can't seem to find any small place in Europe that doesn't fascinate us to no end.

In September Angela and I will stay three weeks in Conwy then most of the time in Betws-y-Coed - both Wales. I think Betws-y-Coed population is 476. LOL! And 6 weeks ago we spent two weeks in Okehampton UK then one week in Falmouth.

And Trump does what Trump does, there's 55 plus years of it laid open for view. He creates total chaos, his tag along's elope into some bizarre claims of success while others gape at what is complete failure, failure, and more failure. Trump sneaks in his paychecks, one after another, always plain out in the open corruption. 2nd grade special needs kids can make that determination but the tag along's choose not to. Why? You got it! Trump looks the part. He's got the John Wayne thing. It takes 1 and 1/2 hours of makeup, hair preparation, and massive body enhancements within the black suit, but we get there. Different voices, unique childlike facial expressions, it all sells and sells to the tag along crowd. All these years for Trump and there's no legitimate business for his "wealth" only scam bezel fake shit. Yet it works, and works, and works, the more stretch his followers do to legitimize - the more committed they are to believe. Bookmark this if you are young because this is the craziest garbage you will ever see in your lifetime. The next person who tries this shit won't have success such as this. Trump owns the world...for now. My extended family of businessmen, some fabulously wealthy remind me that I'm not coming up with the main theme that allows all this to happen. They tell me it is fear, that no matter how much wealth or power anyone has today they all fall in line with this fruitcake goofball because of fear.

For simple clarification:

Rapid rate increases, long length of time rate increases, and expanding broker stock PE multiples - while the "how long" isn't known...these guarantee other side-of-the-mountain outcomes. Wasn't intrinsic value actually being pressured downwards by sure-to-be-reversed or stagnated rate escalation - unsustainable rate increases? When the stock price of AJG for instance was getting higher and higher PE multiples...wasn't the future obvious - but timeline unknown? Stock prices Intrinsic value growth Rate cycle I think the three above move separately, not in unison. Isn't the best time to invest in times of violent rate decline times, when stock prices have been clobbered? It seems to me the progress of the business is much more steady than rates or stock prices. The business is emotionally stable; rates are "party late" and "sleep in" by nature; and stock prices are clearly manic depressive. Time of change for the three? Somewhat unknown, but the past is likely to give guidance. We also have AI affecting likely all three of the above, or at least it eventually will. I label this 100% unknown as to its affect.

I like Greg, Reds, and Pupil's comments on this subject. The size of every investment for me is determined by how I will feel and respond given a 50 percent or more decline in price quote...on a situation or news I may be uncomfortable with.

Those who like or use Trump for their gains whether real or not are going to claim massive success- total success- no matter the outcome. This is the way it works. So yes the win is possible; Trump always wins with some. Given Trump's age and his short life span to come it won't be long until those proclaiming his success are invisible and ignored. New politicians are soon to rock the world of the US of A.