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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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On 2/14/2022 at 1:59 PM, lnofeisone said:

Sold 15 2024 SHLX puts on Friday. The floor here is $12.89 and puts are trading at 3.5. I think it will take way less time than 2 years to get this closed out with Shell's 72% ownership. There is also a potential that the bid will be increased - say if it goes the way TOO/Brookfield saga played out (28% increase in a bid). I not too optimistic on the latter scenario and see this just closing out similar to Enbridge roll up.

 

Thanks @thepupil for flagging this one. 

This worked out rather well. Shell raised the bid to $15.85 so the options are worthless. I also had a decent diagonal that I kept rolling. Again, thanks @thepupil for getting this one on the radar.

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Prem has weaseled out of deals before. This one has conflicts. No guarantee on a close. Theres plenty of good alternatives out there right now, so waiting months for a few % with the possibilities of a small bump to a break and a big decline arent exactly stellar risk/reward. 

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1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Prem has weaseled out of deals before. This one has conflicts. No guarantee on a close. Theres plenty of good alternatives out there right now, so waiting months for a few % with the possibilities of a small bump to a break and a big decline arent exactly stellar risk/reward. 

Prem isn’t putting any new money up. Presumably he’s indifferent. 

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Lightening up on some of my oil positions. Went way overweight a week ago when they cratered. CVE is up almost 15% in the past week. MEG +17%. Oil is still my largest weighting. If oil sells off aggressively again i will be happy to get overweight again. Gotta love the crazy volatility! 

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4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Maybe. But all that matters is the perception. Its not a will he or won't he issue. Its optics.


It’s all about the odds on the various outcomes isn’t it? 
 

What odds do you place on the consortium walking away with no deal, the proposed deal closing or the deal closing post the special committee extracting a bump?

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4 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:


It’s all about the odds on the various outcomes isn’t it? 
 

What odds do you place on the consortium walking away with no deal, the proposed deal closing or the deal closing post the special committee extracting a bump?

Maybe we re talking different things. I interpreted your question as asking the rationale for selling. I don’t own it and have little interest but the rationale seems pretty simple. There’s better opportunities for the cash than sitting around for a couple quarters to make a few percent, especially with those uncertainties which whether likely to occur or not are things folks would consider. If the spread was 15%? Sure I’d kick the tires. But not single digits.

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