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RedLion

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Everything posted by RedLion

  1. I would buy OTM LEAPs on this etf. Rightly or wrongly. Based on my theory that value stocks usually underperform and for short periods of time sometimes stomp the markets.
  2. OWL, ARES, BX. Perhaps not at these prices but they are good cap light dividend paying business models.
  3. So all the comments in this thread beg the question…is it time to buy duration TIPs? If we expect cuts plus increased inflation it seems they could do well. I’ve personally put most of my money into the longest duration TIPs of all, residential rental housing.
  4. Kauai. Just went surfing for the first time today, and it won’t be the last.
  5. ARES, BX, AMP, and GOOGL. all have done well for me. Would rather not sell, but I had racked up a decent size margin debt in these multiple real estate renovation projects and wanted to right myself while the markets are hot.
  6. I bought a pack of prime grade filet mignon at Sam’s club for the same price as the last time I bought fast food for the family. It’s stupid how much prepared food costs, it used to be an area I wasted a lot of money on, but mostly just cook at home or go to the tamale lady at the corner lot.
  7. Definitely time to start digging in again. I always considered this a low moat business so I’m not jumping the gun to jump in, but things are definitely getting interesting.
  8. Which fund is this, or personal? And is this a just an insignificant equity position when most of his allocations are in debt? These aren't rhetorical questions, but I find that sometimes following very intelligent, scholarly investors yields subpar results. I personally haven't found many actionable results from Marks' ivory tower, but that's not to say it's not likely and possible.
  9. I almost entirely agree with your vision and I’d vote for a politician espousing these principles. It’s just that I don’t ever see our government and people accepting these needed changes. I think the most obvious and likely outcome is the inflation angle. So I’m trying to plan according to what I think is most likely rather than what I think would be ideal.
  10. They can’t let the people know this is the plan. Otherwise they risk the reserve currency status. But I agree, how is it even possible to grow out of 120% debt to gdp without?
  11. Look at the s&p500. The average ROIC and ROE and profit margins are way higher than the average publicly traded company. Public companies often have better metrics than small private companies. So that index certainly isn’t a representation of the economy, it’s a representation of the biggest most popular (and mostly the most profitable) companies.
  12. I’ve done well over the years buying after some of block’s reports. Buford was the best. I’m fully invested right now, already have a big chunk of ffh, and watching to see if I get a great chance to backup the truck. Looks like probably not.
  13. My biggest holding is Apollo. Pretty large company although it still hasn’t joined the s&p500 yet. We are up 250% in the last 5 years. Trades at 12x trailing gaap earnings. This doesn’t seem crazy speculative to me. There are tons of other great companies trading at totally reasonable valuations. I wouldn’t be buying the index here, but I wouldn’t bet against it either.
  14. Do you do these swing trades in a tax advantaged account?
  15. I’d support Dinar for treasury secretary
  16. Another friend recommended the Anderson valley again. Finally wrapping up a busy several months, and I’m thinking this would be a great place to explore. I’ve been to the Russian River once, and it was great, would love to spend more time there. I’ve been drinking a lot of Frank Family 2019 Cabernet Sauvignon (I think the best value I can find in the local markets) and Rombauer (I think their Zin is a great value, and we belong to the club so we do get a lot of the special zins like the el dorado and fiddletown.
  17. Bought 400 shares of BTI in my 401k. I’ve been letting my contributions stack, and all my high conviction ideas are trading at all time highs. It was down to BTI or more CLPR. I’m a bit of a yield hog in my 401k and tend to trade way better in my taxable accounts due to closet momentum chasing.
  18. I feel like everything is so hard to predict. When you only need to predict a few things that no one else cares about, that’s when I take my swing.
  19. Not to sound like a global macro guy, but isn’t this exactly what has to happen for the USA to outgrow its debt:gdp problem? It seems like the same thing happened the last time our national debt was this high.
  20. It's sort of irrelevant because I don't have a macro trade in place on this (unless you count real estate), but I think we are going to see the opposite occur. It probably doesn't matter as long as we invest in productive assets either way, but my position is that interest rates cannot return to the 5-7% level for any meaningful period of time because the federal government can't withstand this level of interest burden based on the monumental debt to GDP. Maybe debt always historically reverts to the 5-7% level, but not when there is such an absolute high level of debt in the system. The only other time we had this level of national debt was right after WWII, and we actually maintained low interest rates and inflated our way out that time. So I suspect that through yield control / quantitative easing / and of course Federal reserve setting the short term rate we will have lower rates for longer while the economy inflates itself out of this staggering debt:GDP. The alternative, if rates revert to 5-7 or higher level, where does the cash flow come to pay the interest on the national debt? You can't raise this money through tax revenue without causing a depression, at least in my opinion, especially with the level of debt in the private economy and rolling over debt at higher rates along with way higher income tax. So assuming we run this 5-7+ interest rates for a long period of time, without raising massive amounts of tax revenue, then there are only two alternatives to pay our deficits: 1) Continuing to issue even more 5-7+ rate government bonds, entering into the "White Swan" debt spiral that Taleb is talking about; or 2) Congress prints money to pay the national debt Under both cases we probably lose reserve currency status, and cause a great deal of pain. So it really does seem like the path of least resistance is to have lower interest rates, to use yield control, and to try to grow GDP faster than the national debt for long enough to straighten out our finances.
  21. You should have asked a couple weeks ago! These are both going to serve FEMA's goals at housing Lahaina fire victims and I doubt I'll see them again for at least 2 years. Of course, I will be trolling the markets for more opportunities, and Oahu is a bit more affordable (crazy to see these words come from my keyboard, but true).
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