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SafetyinNumbers

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  1. I would have thought a lot of the bears who have been disappointed with perceived poor stock picking in the past would be pacified somewhat when an investment like Digit is in the stable. It's growing pretty fast. It seems like the stake in Digit could overtake the current market cap of FFH at some point.
  2. It got on my radar when the sold the P&C insurance business in 2013 and paid a big special dividend. I think I saw it on the 52-week high list and decided to learn more about it. Back then, there was a lot of speculation about taking it private but the discount was too small so I didn't get involved. I bought in 2015 when the discount was decently wide but it kept widening. I have been going to the AGMs ever since and really appreciate the strategy. I credit Duncan and BOD over there for teaching me a lot about patience in investing. Now I own 5x what i owned back then and I plan to never sell but concede, I might find better opportunities if/when the discount goes away.
  3. I think ELF.TO is in that camp but instead of them doing whatever they want they seemingly outsource all active management to institutional managers which they turnover from time to time. Their biggest decision is in higher level capital allocation and when to use leverage. They never let a market dislocation go to waste. They are so patient, I think people consider it a value trap. It may not be ideal for maximizing returns but it does have a high margin of safety. It's like buying part of the Jackman Family Office and getting a quality stock portfolio for more than a 50% discount. It's remarkable the opportunity exists but also not surprising.
  4. I voted less than 20%. I consider my $ELF.TO position as outsourced capital with the E-L Financial BOD as the fund of fund manager. It’s a 15% position for me but was as high as 17%. It moves in spurts. The stock portfolio is probably over 80% of Intrinsic Value at this point. Check out the portfolios at UNC.TO and EVT.TO . They also own a bunch of $VOO (S&P 500 ETF) and about 20% of their own shares. Ironically, as their NEV discount grows, the bigger the gap between IV and NEV is because the discount on their shares is bigger. I own Fairfax too but a large part of that investment is based on the hard insurance market and not just the investment portfolio. I will likely sell at some point at a premium to book value ideally!
  5. Congrats. Really impressive execution. I have been looking to speculate on options more as I come across stocks that seem unreasonably cheap but also have liquidity. I normally trade in illiquid securities like ELF.TO and ATTO so I am perhaps out of my depth. I purchased RCII call spreads Dec 70-80 for a net debit of 75-90 cents. I think I am unusually bullish on the economy than most investors in consumer finance / retail but the stock seems unusually cheap. At $55 it trades at 8.5x 2022E consensus. They are paying down debt faster than expected from a large acquisition they did in February meaning they could announce share buybacks in August or November. I figure the December calls give good coverage. Breakeven would be about 11x 2022E estimates which is a far cry from 8.3x now but I think there is a view that the economy is rolling over which might be true but it's not in the numbers yet and doesn't fit my narrative. Management has a history of beating numbers and analysts have decent growth built in but they are hedging with their targets. The average target is is $70 or 12.4x 2021E EPS. Presumably, that will roll forward to 2022E EPS of $6.47 (which might be too low) by December and result in a target above $80. Will anyone care, I don't know for sure but buybacks would be real demand for the shares and systematic quants usually like price target and estimate increases. This is a good tweet thread: https://twitter.com/BreachInletCap/status/1409960007077175299?s=20 I'm only risking 0.1% of capital on this trade. A full investment position for me would be 2% so this strategy if it reaches it's maximum profit would provide a return equivalent to the shares going to $85 by December expiry. I haven't done these sorts of trades before but I'm short on capital and I'm trying to be creative! In all likelihood I will lose all of my premium but I like my odds.
  6. ELF.TO is a better choice for exposure to a mostly quality stock portfolio vs FFH. Plus it trades at over a 50% discount to intrinsic value so very high margin of safety vs buying the S&P 500 (although ELF does own a bunch of VOO too). I own both but I only bought FFH recently (February 2021) because I like the pro-cyclical portfolio.
  7. I added more ATTO on the post earnings sell off. I think intrinsic value ($80+) is higher post these results off of the strong sales but the market is selling ATTO off based on a perceived disappointment in margins in Q1. Full year EBITDA margin guidance is unchanged and with stronger sales, should end up higher than previously anticipated.
  8. I added to MKO.V and FISH.V last week. Mako is a gold miner in Nicaragua and Sailfish has a royalty on Mako's mine along with some other assets. I also went on a podcast and talked about them along with ATTO and ELF.TO. Mako stuff starts at 34:30 https://twitter.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1378157840049782784?s=20
  9. More ATTO. Peers CNXC, TTEC and SYKE are all rallying which makes sense because the sector is attractive. Revenue growth/margin expansion across the entire industry and its consolidating. Atento trades so far from intrinsic value heading into a likely auction as it’s largest shareholders (GIC, HPS & Farallon) have a lock up expiring May 2022.
  10. What expected return over the next 5 or 10 years would make you consider FFH? What are some of these better opportunities and what are their expected returns?
  11. What are your examples where they disclosed a trade that wasn't a sale or a purchase of shares of a company but didn't have to? You seem to have a longer history with the company than I do. I took Prem at face value from the conference call.
  12. They don't disclose it because they have a policy. If they didn't have a policy they would have to decide on each portfolio transaction if they should disclose it or not. It just sounds like you don't like the corporate culture or the long term orientation. Not every stock is for everybody, that's what makes a market.
  13. Maybe they did an inverse total return swap on BB. Would be really easy for them to do since they can lend their own stock to the counterparty. We probably just need to see the Q1 report in less than two months and you might have your answer. How big a number in investment gains in Q1 will make you happy even if you don't know BB gains are part of it? Do you have an estimate with BB marked to market? Some of the big names have moved up a lot so far in 2021. I am just speculating of course. FFH did a long total return swap on its own stock and didn't have to file anything on SEDI. It would follow, it's the same if they entered into an inverse total return swap on BB. Why would he ever say anything if that's the case? Better to be the supportive long term shareholder for BB's sake which is of course in our best interest too.
  14. Buffett would never report anything like that... I used to like him but he has become a tool... There is an alternative theory. I want to point out he has a BEng and not a BMath
  15. Added more ATTO. The stock should be up today but markets are weak and ATTO is in no one's benchmark.
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