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RedLion

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  1. Thanks for posting this. Moving some money out of a CD to grab my 10k now.
  2. I've been playing with rolling these losing ATVI put options per boilermaker75, just closed out my 11/26 $61.50 options for a loss and wrote 12/31/21 $60 options. So if these options are assigned my total price ends up coming to $59.27, if they expire worthless then I end up with a $0.73 profit for a 6 week hold for an initial $6,350 margin commitment. I obviously would be happier if my initial foray into these short term options had been wildly profitable on an IRR basis, but this is good experience catching a falling knife, and I plan to keep playing it out to its conclusion to see if I can learn something. If the price keeps dropping I will try to continue rolling my options lower and longer duration to stay in a net debit position.
  3. I'm certainly no expert, but in previous years I've often found bargains in the tax loss selling bin around the week of Christmas-New Years, there seems to be a combination of low volume and tax loss selling that can cause an extra steep selloff right before year end. Who knows in 2021 though, the markets are crazy.
  4. I'm not barking up any tree, and I'm not saying this is bitcoin's fault. I'm just identifying what I think is a huge potential risk. I'm quite libertarian politically, but I recognize that I'm in the minority. I think regulation likely wouldn't ban BTC outright, but would probably be similar to maintaining foreign bank accounts with regulatory and disclosure burdens and stiff penalties if found in violation of the disclosure burdens. I think this could take away the speculative allure for a lot of current market volume. This is just a hunch, I'm not betting against BTC or anything.
  5. I don't think there is good data on this. I pointed out the use of BTC transactions as a political risk, and I still think it is. As you mention, using actual cash or gold is commonplace for criminals, but please explain to me how you can use physical cash or gold to facilitate electronic transactions? I readily agree that USD is probably used for the most illicit transactions, but BTC market share has been skyrocketing since inception. Even during the Silk Road era, BTC transactions were extremely common, and this was 10 years ago. So my point was that: 1) BTC has been used exponentially MORE for illicit transactions since Silk Road; and 2) the early movers that were mailing oxycontin through the mail for BTC are now multi-millionaires if they held their BTC; and 3) with more mainstream awareness I think governments around the world might try to crack down, it's already happening in China.
  6. Well I'm paying my tuition on the ATVI puts. Bought them back at $1.90 and sold the 11/26 $61.50 strike price for $1.15. If this new option expires worthless I'm still out $0.35, but I guess I can make that back by writing the next week's option. If I get assigned then my cost basis is $61.85 after adjusting for the options trades, so at least my margin of safety on the stock is improving.
  7. Sure the USD is used more frequently for street level transactions. Certainly NOT for dark web transactions.
  8. I couldn't agree more. Again, I think it's going to be difficult to regulate or track transactions in BTC, but I suspect there will be significant effort by governments to try. It does seem like if the speculation is contained and the "bubble bursts" that BTC would become much less attractive as a means of facilitating the black market, especially if the volume from speculation dries up and the value of the BTC holdings plummets. And it's hard for me to see how these levers don't eventually end up getting pulled. The crazy thing about this run up in crypto is that there's an entire group of low level criminals that are likely millionaires with essentially untraceable and untaxed wealth, and likely many many billionaires as well. I would be surprised if there are not currently drug cartels, terrorist organizations, and organized crime with billions upon billions of BTC at these current prices, and this becomes a serious problem for governments around the world. I suspect that causing millions of millenial speculators and some hedge funds devastating losses would be an acceptable collateral damage for many government actors. I still find BTC very unattractive for this reason along with the above mentioned lack of intrinsic value. Maybe I'm wrong, and no one is able to put this genie back in the bottle, maybe the price continues to soar, so I sure wouldn't short BTC even if I knew how.
  9. I don't purport to know much about BTC intrinsic value, but one of the huge utility's of BTC, is its use in facilitating black market transactions whether it be drug dealing, human trafficking, terrorism, tax fraud, etc. This part of BTC's "user base" seems to me to poise huge risks since it gives governments around the world a strong incentive to try to regulate or track cryptocurrency in general. I don't know enough to express an opinion about the feasibility government regulation or tracking these transactions. There's obviously a great deal of financial speculation involved today, probably a much higher % than black market transactions, I'm not sure how you could even estimate the break down due to the decentralized nature of BTC and other cryptocurrency transactions. I first heard about Bitcoin when it had just crossed over $1,000, and felt that it was speculative and had already had all its easy gains and passed at that time. Clearly the wrong decision in retrospect, but I have essentially continued to feel the same way the whole way up.
  10. I will be watching how this unfolds tomorrow. You can buy them back until the expiration day, or I'm assuming if they move ITM they might get assigned sooner than that?
  11. Added to MO, initiated a position in BRK.B (I know, sacrilegious that I didn't own this until now), short 11/19 63.50 ATVI PUT (to experiment with picking up pennies in front of steam rollers).
  12. I just sold a $63.50 November 17 option on ATVI for $0.40 which expires in 2 days. Just putting my toes in at this point, and selling these on margin, because there's still some sort of holdup on getting covered calls/cash secured puts approved in my 401k account. If all my outstanding puts were assigned, my Schwab margin account would be about 30% on margin which would definitely be out of my comfort range, however I've got a significant amount of securities that I can transfer over to my Schwab account from a Chase You invest account (I just keep this because it's easy to transfer money from my my chase accounts on the same day, and have used it to make spur of the moment purchase decisions on many occasions, then eventually transfer securities over to Schwab if needed for margin purposes).
  13. Are you writing all of these on a cash secured basis? I'm looking at opportunities in APO, FISV, FB, MO, and ATVI. Other than APO, I'm looking to add a lot more of these common stocks over the next year or two, so they seem like good opportunities.
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