thepupil

yea, but then you have 1-2 people to hang out with whenever you want. it's like an extension of one of the best part of college. living with the bros....to each his own...potentially makes for better socializing with similarly situated women as well. "hey want to pregame at my 3 bedroom with a balcony that i share with 2-3 similarly eligible people...bring your friends" lands a lot better than "hey come to my studio"....anyways, I'll stop telling you how to live your life, but just something to consider.

I just looked up my NYC apartment which i rented from 2011-2013. It's a 2BR available for $7,500 / month. the living room was cut in half to create a 3rd bedroom. A reasonable trio would split this, $3,000/mo $2,500/mo, $2,000 / month or something like that ($3K gets the en suite, $2.5K gets the real bedroom / shares bathroom, $2K gets the fake bedroom share bathroom). (the $3K guy is getting the best deal but paying the most)...it was a doorman building / pretty nice. It was $5,100 15 years ago, so has only gone up by 2.5%/yr, less than inflation and less than low end junior comp at banks / HF / etc. NYC housing is affordable if you have a great job (a hedge fund job certainly qualifies) and are willing to room up which is fun when you're young. are you only looking at studios / 1BR? you don't have to spend $4K...that gets you half of a luxury 2BR which is way too much for someone just outta college.

curious why this vs shorting an unlevered ETF? or puts or something else. not straightforward at all to me to do it this way.

nope. my IBKR accounts (2/3 of assets i control) are up ~4.5% and SPY and REITs are up 9-11%. my fidelity accounts (the other 1/3) are up 8%. my 401k's and stuff (currently all TIPS) are up 8%-9%. Trust (which basically just owns global indices minus fees) and I don't control is up 8.5% or so. mediocre year so far. I've not been particularly excited about my portfolio for like 2-3 years. think generally have bought things at okay-ish discounts but actual value coming in a little shy of underwriting as my (mostly) real estate oriented stuff continues to grapple with money having an actual cost. feel like most of my ideas are pretty stale...been some small wins here and there but nothing too additive...the last few sell-offs (Iran / Tarriff / etc)...I've generally way outperformed as market fell, but then not really taken advantage of the bounce...there's a younger more aggressive version of me that would have rotated/found a way to make more on the way up...but that hasn't been me of late....i also just take less concentration/risks generally....i'm playing a little scared because...i don't want to give up the last ~6 years of wild gains over which my NW has like quintupled (inheritance + compounding + saving + a little bit better than mkt returns)...

1. I didn't really talk until i was 4 and was reading at a college level by 6th grade (alas! my relative intelligence / achievements plateaued early). I let my sister do all the yapping for me. this likely comes as a surprise to many here on COBF as now there's little i love more than the sound of my own voice. 2. If you haven't already, I'd have him tested for the "certain diagnoses" which you reference (autism?). How you choose to handle/what you do with whatever diagnosis is is up to you, but why not at the very least, seek as much information. Our friends' son was diagnosed at 6 and they feel strongly they wish they knew earlier as it relates to educational choices they made. their kid is in a school where he's thriving and he was previously not. they can afford it and are glad to have that knowledge. I may be misreading it, but I perceive skepticism of such a diagnosis in your writing. I understand the aversion and it seems like the whole mental health industry overdiagnoses, but I'd seek as much information as possible. 4 is pretty old to not be talking a lot.

Realassetsvalue actually found the earnest money amounts which is really low (just ~1% of asset value) I'd regard that as bullish in that the buyer didn't walk away from a HUGE amount of money indicating some gigantic issue...Like let's say there's a $30 million issue. It'd obviously be rational for buyer to try to retrade or walk away from $1.5-$3 million. a $30 million issue would be okay / is quantifiable. next buyer can price it in. now...of course there's no way to actually know. More on the RIverside Apartments sale contract: Riverside is under contract to the Beitel Group, which is the family office of a family that’s made their money in multifamily real estate. The inspection period is through June 4th with target closing date of July 6th with $1.5m earnest money deposit due 2 days after contract was signed (May 8th) and $3.0m due at the end of the inspection period. Given the small earnest money deposit, the fact that we’re still early in the inspection period, and that the buyer is a savvy multifamily operator who will rely on debt financing to close, this isn’t yet a done deal but they will have done their due diligence and hopefully know what they are getting into.

a) the buyer decided to not proceed following inspection. I assume the building has greater than underwritten deferred maintenance, or, at worst, significant structural issues. Whatever the problem is, the buyer forfeited the earnest money in order to avoi buying the building. I didn't find disclosure of the deposit amount. b) I don't know. They've stated they're getting rid of all employees and liquidating. this is the last thing (assuming the otehr 3 close of course). IF those other 3 close, you'd have like $100mm of PF short term debt @ ~7% (matures in november, can be extended to June 2027, but at a price) so that's $7 million of interest. I'd assume $2 - $10 million/ year of grift / m&A to more or less take all your cash flow. I'd assume carry neutral. they'd have to really pillage ya to have negative. I doubt it takes 24 months. The market for multifamily is deep, liquid, and robust. As long as there's something not insanely wrong with the building (there is something wrong), I'd imagine they remarket it for a few months, get some stink bids that reflect whatever is wrong and it gets done in like 6-9 mo's. they marketed it in January, were under contract in May and then it just fell through. c) the remaining asset is 1,222 unit apartment building, Riverside Alexandria, 1971 vintage, bought in 2016 for $244 million, was under contract at $280 million ($230K/unit, low 7's cap). Three buildings on 28 acres. It generates about $20 million of NOI. but that may be a little lower now. Occupancy has been marginally falling. the DMV has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country and is more or less in recession. This is one of the last buildings to sell from a REIT where a PE firm picked the best assets to buy and this is one of the excluded assets. This is not a high quality asset and is in one of the least desireable markets in the country (the DC area) from a near term economic momentum perspective. that's why this had a 7 handle on it and why I'm being greedy and wanting to create it at a 9 handle. Like basically every apartment building i ever look at online, it gets terrible reviews. I almost put no stock in online reviews of apartments for investment purposes because if you beleived them, every single apartment building in the US is about to collapse, is infested with rats and cockroaches, and has numerous theives, drug dealers, etc. then you look at the data and it shows stable occupancy and rents...o @realassetsvalue has a good writeup with background as a well as a subsequent updated from May https://realassetsvalue.substack.com/p/elme-communities-nyseelme https://substack.com/profile/41080885-real-assets-value/note/c-258451179?r=ogi7p&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web https://ir.elmecommunities.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/73/washington-reit-completes-the-previously-announced

ELME's largest and most important asset's PSA just got terminated, sending the stock down 22%. Assuming the other 3 sell (which are past inspection periods) and 5% t-costs? very rough here, using @realassetsvaluewriteup as an initial guide 1.80: 8% cap myeh, not much room for upside assuming sale @ some discount to prior contract 1.48 : 9% cap probably have nice upside 1.24: 10% cap back up truck, put as mcuh as you're comfy putting in one building, would have to have something really wrong with the building to not sell above here. any thoughts?

does it matter? could be the best company in the world and it doesn't make sense that someone who's comfy with 1-2% positions has a 50%+ position.

what are the consequences of selling? what's your basis as a % of market value does it have a listed options market? are you a candidate for the numerous wealth mgt solutions for this? how many years of savings does it represent? Are we walking like "I have $20K of SaaSco and save $50K / year" or "I have $2 million of SaaSco and save $50k / year?" Why hold it? if you're not comfortable with a >50% position, then why have it?

agree on Elon complex, valuations look dumb my stupid little mutual fund trade notwithstanding. on memory, it’s tough for me to agree in that earnings have absolutely exploded and that for these to trade at “intrinsic value” assuming this only last a couple years they’d probably have to trade for like 3x earnings which isn’t really realistic for mega caps so they trade to like 8….like with hindsight Micron at $100B in 2023 was trading for 1x 2027 earnings, so with hindsight we know that it was well below its intrinsic value (unless they never earn another $1 or estimates are way off). they’re shifting to longer term contracts which one experienced person I k ow says that always marks the top of the cycle but does lengthen the period of supernormal return. in other words, they might be worth 50% or 60% less on a true PV of earning, but are we really THAT confident the supply response will destroy earnings THAT quickly. I am not. The difference in supervycle length of 1 or 2 years is like a few hundred billion of earnings. and then the leaders as you say are potentially worse businesses than before from all this, but also like no one else can muster the scale of resources like they are… I’m more in the wishy washy useless Howard marks camp “be a little cautious / don’t go all in on any one view” with that said yesterday was amazing, market down 2.5%, portfolio up 1-2%. Let’s have more of those please! One of the tensions to manage is if you think the market leadership /stuff at the top is a little optimistic, then you might be cautious on market and think everything goes down….or you could have rotation into other stuff…I just stay mostly invested / root for rotation, but obviously if it all goes down the. Hedges/cash whatever would be better. Can’t predict that. Yesterday felt more like rotation and it was glorious. Who knows what tomorrow holds. Given the degree so many invest passively, I’d think eventually everything goes down if the big stuff does.

This is probably the most lucrative thing Greg could do. Announce $5 billion allocation to SPCX. Berkshire goes down 10-20% and share repo window opens wide

+1 Berkshire needs to deploy like $40B/yr to stand still on cash, they need to deploy like $200B or so of excess cash. not even clear (yet) that Berkshire is a net buyer of stocks YTD. it's nothing.

one thing I haven't seen discussed too much is a goal of portfolio simplification. they were net sellers of $10 billion of stocks in Q1 (from Q), completely exiting 16 stocks, going from 40--->26 (quick AI search result). Would i prefer a berkshire that owns $30B or $50B or $60B of Google, researches the company well, interacts with management in a real way, learns stuff about what's goinng on in the world from that diligence/ownership to one that owns 16 meaningless stock positions managed by a mediocre market neutral financials PM that happened to charm Buffett (which is who Todd Combs was)....of course, I'd prefer that that, it's not like he sold 50 cent dollars to buy Google. now in reality that's not how it went down exactly. Todd left, he blew out of todd's portfolio...the alphabet deal came together over weekend, goldman called Berkshire and berkshire took it down. but in substance, we have a Berkshire that has a still small, but more material position in a leading business rather than a berkshire that owns a bunch of meaningless positions....even if it's not particularly "cheap" this is also marketing. you're showing that you're good for 11 figures over a weekend at a very reasonable / commercial discount. it's also not wildly off from an index like position in alphabet, not that Berkshire is direct indexing....but there's like 6 stocks that matter Apple ($70B) Amex ($47B) Coke ($30B) Japan (trading houses) ~$30B Alphabet ($30B) Energy (CVX/OXY) ~$30B

this is wild. from a U.S. attorney.