fareastwarriors Posted November 8, 2022 Posted November 8, 2022 Picked up some more $CLPR in the $6.50s...
Ross812 Posted November 8, 2022 Posted November 8, 2022 3-mo. t-bills (4.32% on the ask), DFIN, and CLPR
lnofeisone Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: OBE SD What did you think of the ER? Lots of questions for this one and I'm watching form the sidelines until they provide new guidance.
nwoodman Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, aatrox919 said: I couldn't find a META thread. Is this a long position for you? Are you thinking that the layoffs will have a positive affect in the near-term? Do you think the market prefers a smaller or larger layoff if META does go through with it? I think I read somewhere that it would be in the thousands. Nothing but a rare trade for me. Deeply dislike the business model and I dislike the CEO even more. Anything this maniac does that remotely resembles stewardship of capital will result in a relief rally IMHO. Looking forward to selling ASAP Edit: and restoring the respect of my wife who dislikes this company more than I do Edited November 9, 2022 by nwoodman
SharperDingaan Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 10 hours ago, lnofeisone said: What did you think of the ER? Lots of questions for this one and I'm watching form the sidelines until they provide new guidance. Posted our view in the OBE investment thread. They did all the right things in Q3, but disappointment was inevitable. New wells came on line late, and investors hadn't adjusted their expectations re lower crude prices and higher differentials. Most quarters we swing trade around the ER to limit disappointments. At times like this, we look like heros. SD
CorpRaider Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 "Well, I guess I might as well buy some $DIS." - Eeyore
nafregnum Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, CorpRaider said: "Well, I guess I might as well buy some $DIS." - Eeyore That's what I was pondering. I'm curious what the big disappointment was, but the last time I bought was at $93 and I don't mind adding under that level.
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, nafregnum said: That's what I was pondering. I'm curious what the big disappointment was, but the last time I bought was at $93 and I don't mind adding under that level. It’s just the market. One negative datapoint and a lot of things sell off. A few Qs ago this woulda been +15% on the sub numbers and parks strength.
Spekulatius Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 $DIS problem is the same problem that $WBD and $PARA are having, lack of profitability in their DTC business and shrinking topline with linear networks. The bottom line was actually fine for linear networks. For DTC not so much.
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 WBD and PARA are one trick ponies. DIS DTC is just one piece of the equation. Market just does what it does sometimes and gets too granular on one dimensional metrics.
dealraker Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 As for Disney? I think the businesses requiring hours of eyeballs are possibly too numerous, may have gotten the max market cap possible, and just maybe something is beginning to give a tad. Tons of investment seem headed that way, all with huge expectations. Maybe peak profit margins are thus in the past too. But you know the story, along with electric car story, still wants to sell very well.
Cod Liver Oil Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 @Spekulatius I am operating under the flawed assumption that DTC will end up with decent economics and pricing power for the winners. At $90, you are paying about $100bn for DIS ex DTC, no?
Spekulatius Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said: @Spekulatius I am operating under the flawed assumption that DTC will end up with decent economics and pricing power for the winners. At $90, you are paying about $100bn for DIS ex DTC, no? How do you get to $100B for $DIS ex DTC? EV is $220B and I don't see DTC worth $120B by a long shot. Furthermore, since DTC is part of the flywheel, you can't segregate parts of it or do a SOP, imo. You have to evaluate DIS as going concern. As for DTC, I expect it to eventually trade for a single digit EBITDA multiple. In the past, these streaming business have traded more based on subscriber growth metrics, but I think at some point this will switch to old fashioned profitability metrics. Reading the transcript, in 2023 their DTC spent will be >$30B. This years DTC revenue was $19.6B so if it increases by 20% that would be $23.5B. that would mean about $6.5B in operating losses next year compared to ~$4B. Maybe revenues grow quicker, but I see almost no way that the DTC losses go down next year compared to 2022. I also think their linear network earnings ($8B operating earnings) will go down compared to this year. Parks likely should be flat due to recessionary trends. This all does not look all that great to me. They made $1.75/share this year in operating earnings for a $87 stock. This can easily hit $60 or below, imo if cord cutting worsens and their DTC subscriber growth is a bit weak. Again, i have no deep insight other than this does not look all that cheap or like a great setup at current prices to me. Edited November 9, 2022 by Spekulatius
Ross812 Posted November 9, 2022 Posted November 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, Castanza said: AIV, CLPR I don't like seeing stuff I own in this thread because it means it is down! I bought a little more DFIN, its now at 3%. I think there is a low hurdle for this to double and hit $70 in a few years with the assumed growth of the SaaS side of the business and no change in valuation. I want to watch it for a while before I am comfortable making it a significant position. I had a small position in MSGE which I am trying to get more comfortable with.
no_free_lunch Posted November 10, 2022 Posted November 10, 2022 Traded my AMGN position for GOOG. GOOG has some risks but lots of levers too to offset any downsides. I will probably get killed on it for a bit but 17x earnings seems too cheap.
Castanza Posted November 10, 2022 Posted November 10, 2022 4 hours ago, Ross812 said: I don't like seeing stuff I own in this thread because it means it is down! I bought a little more DFIN, its now at 3%. I think there is a low hurdle for this to double and hit $70 in a few years with the assumed growth of the SaaS side of the business and no change in valuation. I want to watch it for a while before I am comfortable making it a significant position. I had a small position in MSGE which I am trying to get more comfortable with. Yeah I’m always hesitant with these up and coming software plays. The pitch is always “look at our growth” and “we have the best in class product” then someone ends up coming along and eats their lunch. But the numbers look good overall. I’m gonna wait a bit maybe see how the next Q goes. I’m not sure we’ve seen normalized earnings yet. I want to see what competition does and if someone else brings to market a all encompassing suite how that affects DFINs sun growth. Mitek comes to mind from my past experience.
Agrippa07 Posted November 10, 2022 Posted November 10, 2022 added to Dis, Nintendo and some buys into crypto...BTC, ETH and SOL
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