SharperDingaan

Appreciate the compliments. Think of it as 'stress testing'; what is the probable outcome under various (goofy ) scenarios, are we 'agnostic' ?, do there seem to be developing trends, are we positioned to benefit ?. Nice if we can also reasonably quantify the timing, but purely a bonus. Assassination has to be a scenario; low probability, high impact tail risk. Dementia/midterm loss recognition has to a scenario; rising probability?, high impact, fatter tail risk. Trump loses elections, new folks take over, Iran war ends; % probability?, trend ?. Etc, etc .... We treat 'investng' as a business, no matter what, we win; how much .... market determined. Not for everyone, and not everyone's cup of tea. We're agnostic; but it seems increasingly clear that the US is tearing itself apart, and that the world would be a better place without Trump. While we have faith in the ability of the US political system to put up viable alternatives, and implement the will of the people, the pragmatic man hedges his bets. Ideally, we end up hedging for nothing. SD

Agreed, as most will just see the dominating MTM loss from the hedges, and not the incremental FCF from the unhedged production. Unlikely that Q2 hedge roll-off receives any credit until Q3 reporting in Nov. A bit different though for an IPO, and to a lesser extent a CJ; company specifics and low share counts adding lifts . SD

Nothing against the US, or the incredible achievements of the US people .... just not so much the administration. We just call it as we see it, and invest accordingly. The dysfunctional administration is rapidly getting worse, Trump has now become a material hazard to the world, and there is diminishing confidence in a drama free transition .... should Trump lose the midterms. Wide range of ways it could go. If I have done my job well, we do well no matter what. I just find it very unlikely that pending a state removal, an incapacitated Trump voluntarily gives way to his Vice. Sadly, we think it far more likely that it is accomplished via another game changing Kennedy moment. Sh1te kickers are not a bad thing, but once their day is over ... Same thing with Orange Boy. SD

That's what the Orange slices, and pain killers are for .... administered by a pretty nurse, and promises, promises. Lots of bruises and broken bones that need tender loving care SD

Reasonably fair assessment, from Fortune. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-may-choose-between-endless-080700006.html "The options are to escalate or cut a deal. And I think the [Trump] administration is likely to do the first, see it fail, and end up with the second," Brew said. In the meantime, "We're going to see more fireworks in the next two or three weeks before we see any kind of progress towards de-escalation or accommodation." You might also want to keep in mind that o/g producers will be reporting Q2-26 numbers in about 4 weeks; Q2 commodity prices were high, FCF numbers will be high, and many will also be reporting significant repurchase of outstanding shares. Higher share prices, likely to stay higher for a while. The Q4 mystery is how the US deals with midterm results/disruption ..... Orange Boy loses the senate, but refuses to accept the outcome ... claiming widespread fraud. Hedging via long oil/gas, and a straddle on his sudden demise, makes a great deal of pragmatic sense. SD

Great reference Very telling that 2 of the main networks refused to carry Trumps live time speech last night ... and today he's calling for both of them to have their licences pulled. Even with today's rants .... vs the world cup finals coming up; a lot of people are simply turning the dial. Yesterdays, 'old man', fish and chip wrapper SD

Orange Boy loses the midterms .... his carcass will rapidly start to stink up the place. Those various straddles on the mans sudden demise suddenly start appreciating, and accelerate as the various Trump 'edicts' start being wound back. All that 'distracting' ...... bringing the day forward. SD

Those with a subscription to the Daily Telegraph may want to confirm the reporting.... Supposedly; the Houthis are expanding ties with Somalia's al-Shabaab, including the use of Iranian drones, to 'exert influence' on both sides of the Bab-el-Mandeb exit into the Gulf of Aden. Houthis already have instruction to close the strait should Iran's power infrastructure be attacked, consistent with the disproportional retaliation that Iran has promised. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Instructs-Houthis-to-Prepare-Red-Sea-Shipping-Attacks.html The only other way out of the Red Sea is via the Suez Canal; the maximum Suezmax tanker is limited to 160,000 DWT (1M bbl), about 1/2 that of a southbound VLCC (2M bbl) loading at Yanbu. A forced temporary diversion of tanker trade north, could well cut off around 1M bbl/d of Saudi egress .... spiking price. https://www.fairwayeta.com/insights/tanker-sizes-explained-aframax-suezmax-vlcc-ulcc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East–West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline SD

Hopefully the SOH opens soon, and the Bab-el-Mandeb (Red Sea) remains open; while views may differ as to mechanics, we have a market for that. We just don't have confidence in the dysfunctional Whitehouse, or the abilities of two old men to remain calm and collected, while under immense pressure. C'est la vie. SD

The battle for the SOH needs to have been decidedly won, and with traffic flowing freely both ways, by Nov-03 (US MidTerm) at the latest... 3 1/2 months. Should both Netanyahu and Trump lose their elections, it will be the allies withdrawing; and a global coalition stepping in to negotiate peace, security, reparations, and a return to 'normal' flows. The US and Israel have been at it for 4 1/2 months ... and the SOH is still closed; no reason to think that it will be much different come Nov-03. Were the Iranian people pre-disposed to overthrow the regime, it would have already happened; now the growing misery just makes the population want to see Trump gone (WW II bombing effect). Of course the SOH will reopen ..... just most likely with different players. SD

Quite agree .... as it's not collectable Thing is .... every time a balloon is floated, it's a few more days of diminished traffic through the SOH before it is resolved, and a further draw on global SPR inventory. Jawbone all you want, but you fight against a price rise as that inventory depletes ... and have to fight harder the less inventory you have left. Knocking out the bridges and power stations, just means the Iranians knocking out the same in US friendly states, not Iran magically coming to the table. It just evidences a trapped, drowning man, punching at every/anything, desperately searching for a way out of the tarpit. Let the man tire, and drown. One of the WWII takeaways was that bombing civilian infrastructure to diminish ability to produce more war material, just made the population more resistant ... even when their leadership were Nazi. Arguably, the same thing happening here. SD

Immutable title. It can be done manually, and very efficiently, but the title specs can be altered at any time (property lines moved a few feet, etc), and there is incentive to bribe to get it done. Once the blockchain block is validated via the second signature, the data (title specs) cannot be changed. Modernisation and lower cost. Stop the land component transferring, taxes drop, and affordability rises. The cost of land + dwelling lease; a lot lower than outright purchase of the land + the dwelling on it. The world, and technology, has moved on; what was a good solution decades ago, is now just acceptable ... but no longer really fit for today's purpose. SD

Fairly good summation of the SOH tolling 'thing' ...... https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trumps-Hormuz-Toll-Could-Upend-Global-Energy-Trade.html 'Imposing a charge equivalent to one-fifth of the cargo’s value would achieve almost exactly the opposite. It would transform a temporary geopolitical disruption into a permanent structural cost, replacing the risk of an Iranian blockade with an American toll that could be just as damaging to energy markets. After spending enormous political, military and financial resources trying to preserve freedom of navigation, Washington would effectively begin charging the world for the freedom it claims to have restored.' 'The resulting levy on oil and gas could therefore approach $115 billion per year under fairly moderate assumptions, before including petrochemicals, fertilizers, containerized goods and other commercial cargo. This would not be a conventional shipping toll based on the cost of providing a service or maintaining infrastructure. It would be an ad valorem charge on some of the most important commodity flows in the global economy.' 'Washington would effectively be asserting that military protection of an international shipping route creates a right to collect a percentage of the goods passing through it. That principle would have implications far beyond the Gulf. If naval protection creates a right to tax commercial cargo, other military powers could make similar claims around contested maritime routes. The distinction between securing freedom of navigation and monetizing control over navigation would become dangerously blurred.' 'The direct 20% payment would therefore be only the beginning. War-risk insurance premiums would remain elevated, while shipowners could demand additional compensation for crews and vessels entering the region. Financing costs would increase because cargoes exposed to possible seizure, delayed payment or changing regulations would become riskier collateral. Traders would build larger margins into contracts, and buyers would seek supplies from routes not subject to arbitrary charges.' One has to be truly gifted to f*** ** this badly Gasoline prices have already begun to reflect the now higher crude prices; it is only a matter of time until US refineries start failing (running at capacity, no maintenance shutdowns), China has already further scaled back its refining, and the Saudi East West pipeline terminals at Yanbu are very vulnerable. Houthis don't have to destroy, continually damage enough to progressively reduce throughput .... is good enough. Of course ...... most would expect Orange Boy to do whatever he can to lower gasoline prices, and the speculative community to squeeze US inventories as much as possible. Rising volatility, rapid change, pending mid-terms, and an 80 year old dealing with the pressure ..... what could possibly go wrong SD

One could not make this sh1te up .... It is still illegal, unenforceable, 20% of the cargo value, and the Iranians have proposed to toll for 80% less ... The SOH remain locked, Red Sea egress remains threatened, and global reserves continue to drain. "U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday backtracked on plans to charge ships for using the Strait of Hormuz, saying Gulf countries would instead invest in the United States." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-2/ SD

There is too much of the wrong kind of housing stock (one room condos built &/or pre-construction), that are selling at distressed prices as interest rates rise and prices fall .... wiping out new buyer and speculator equity. Too little of the needed stock in the right places, and new build cost too expensive for the target market. That 2-3 bedroom in the suburbs, plus transport to/from work, plus the required car to get around too expensive for the family that would live in it. The service cost (mortgage, utils, etc.) on the new build cost of the 2-3 bedroom condo near a rail terminal too expensive as well. The hope is higher income &/or higher migration, yet average income is falling, and ICE is systematically reducing population via deportation. House prices either fall as service costs rise, or those living in the house are increasingly multi-generational ..... living on different floors, vs rooms on the same floor. Not most older 2-3 bedroom housing stock, and the US doesn't do multi-generational (grand parents, parents, kids all in the same house) living well. Ageing populations worsening it. The Toronto experience ....... SD

One of the advantages of a concentrated portfolio is that you also develop a pretty good sense as to when the stock is over and under priced. Upcoming earnings announcements, dividend ex dates, changes in the underlying commodity price (affecting price), etc. First time out, look at RSI as a guideline. As you gain confidence and trust in your assessments ... switch over to judgement. If you are going to rely on stop loss thresholds, you are building an algorithm .... bots can do it a lot better than you. Most often you will make your money from change in the price of the goods the company sells, versus change in the company technicals or financials. It will bias you towards commodities. Good luck. SD

Sometime around the end of this month the US runs out of SPR reserves. Cushing (heavy oil) is already at below minimum level, with what's left as primarily sludge. Per the below, the four weeks is up Friday this week; assuming most of the SOH leakage over the last few weeks was US bound, give it another two weeks or so ... end of July. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5928618-iran-deal-oil-reserves-g7/ VZ heavy oil supply is still very limited, Russian is essentially now only for domestic use; leaving mostly just Mexican and Canadian. And the US formally advising that it wants out of CUSMA ...... the art of the deal. The SOH now economically locked solid, and the Red Sea under attack, there will be a lot less leakage covering shortfalls. There will soon need to be a 2nd coordinated global SPR release, and China will be reentering the market in the coming months. Absent a sudden change; one has to think that the line ups at the pump start happening by around late August through mid September, maybe earlier. Israeli elections are 27-October, with Netanyahu projected to lose. US midterm elections a week later, on 03-November, with Republicans projected to lose the house. Potentially, ground breaking change in 3-4 months, with Israeli results bleeding into the US outcome. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-US-midterm-elections Hang on for the ride SD

Only the US (The Guardian Of The Homuz Strait) .... can be this warped https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-iran-attacks-kuwait/ “The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ’THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT’, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.” The Iranians charge maybe USD 3/bbl (high) ... or 4% on a USD 75/bbl; the US charges 20%. The strait is now guaranteed to remain closed, and the Gulf incentivized to support Iranian tolling of the strait instead. SD

Friends advise, that this painting has quite the history ; Frans Hals, Two Laughing Boys With A Mug Of Beer. https://pricelessblog.squarespace.com/articles/frans-hals-painting-stolen-three-times Third time out, it was stolen, and fenced as an insurance policy against the owner eventually getting caught doing his crimes. The give the painting up for a reduced sentence, the more famous and valuable the painting, the better the bargaining chip. But with this particular painting .... should your name unfortunately ever get added to the previous list of owners .... you will also be famous forever. Immortality for cheap Apparently, most of what hangs on the gallery walls today are extremely good copies, with the originals stored in vaults. The other side of the street informed accordingly, and the message underlined by one or two copies of other paintings quietly commissioned directly from today's best forgers. You are welcome to continue nicking the inventory, and we'll put on a good show (for insurance purposes), but please limit the damage, and recognise that you only have the copy . Same as the original painters, there are forgers equally as good as the masters, and they are all known. SD

This should really be an apples-to-apples comparison: Reduce the put allocation to 50%; 15%x50% = 7.5%-2% put drag = 5.5% + same downside protection as sale and repurchase. That delta of 3.5% (9.0-5.5%) is 60%+ better, much easier to do, but not nearly as 'sexy' or conversational. There's a reason why 'sale and repurchase' is so often maligned . More opportunities! SD

Think of the $10M Picasso broken up similarly to RE, but for a time-limited period; $8M (nominal) held by investors, $2M split between the endowment funds of 3 major galleries, all the severed components put on a secured blockchain. The $8M nominal grows at the inflation rate every year, contributes zero cash, and is essentially a zero-coupon bond with duration equal to the time limited period (the ALM market). The galleries pay the insurance, share the risk, and earn whatever the painting makes as a part of travelling exhibitions, etc (bigger/better/more marketable collection at less cost). Same 'trustworthy' social licence issues as the RE blockchain, and the same/stronger agency pushback. But .... It will not happen until a government (France/UK/Germany) does it, and essentially privatises state owned artworks via sale of the nominal portions to the ALM market. Notable, in this case, is that it also spins off the worlds best known forgeries via a derivative market of blockchain provenance. Friends in low places advise .... that many of the very best forgers in the world are equally as good painters as the masters they forge; they just don't get the same 'press'. That genuine Picasso, alongside its best forgery in the world; both displayed safely at the Louvre. Can you tell the difference . Incredible opportunities, but mention this in the Louvre .... and you're lower than dog shite, dragged in under your shoe!. SD

Think of the RE as a $1M 'package' of land (750K) + building (250K). The lawyer severs the package into land + a 'X' years lease on the building, titles of both put on a secure blockchain. As only the dwelling 'lease' is transferring .... not the land itself, taxes and commission will only be paid on the 250K, not the full $1M. Game changer (and UK common practice). RE bro's have incentive to consolidate all local (less 'trustworthy') RE block chains, into a single 'Google USA RE' where a trusted title search is now simply a query of the immutable data blocks (blockchain property). Lawyers now paid primarily to put the new transaction onto the block chain, and not for a redundant title search. 'Google USA RE', now a monopoly way more effective than a Standard Oil Trust ever was .... and much harder to break-up. Game changers. 'Trustworthy' is what the public perceives (social licence), not the blockchain mechanics (tech creation) that create the immutable record. More public trust in a bigger/ubiquitous Google versus dinky blockchain startup (hence consolidation). Social licence more easily granted to a governmental institution vs a Google (hence private/public partnerships). But if there no social licence .... all this amazing ability strands (hence the agency attack). This is what artificial intelligence actually is .... the other side of the blockchain coin, We're not going to see it for a while as established agency controls have strong incentive to kill it, but it's coming. Anything where a record (digital) documents a change in the physical world, done much faster, and more reliably by tech vs human. Doesn't affect the welder welding steel together (physical world), but does affect his/her time-sheet (digital world). Not the story being sold. SD

Tokenization, at present, is little more than Tech Bro's trying to find a market for the tech, and doing it badly. We built it, now use it ... no idea for what though The best application is around property; secure blockchain record, tokenize to separate the land from the dwelling(s) on it. Already done manually in legal offices throughout the world, it is just not the common practice in the US; an application that is all about reducing cost, not creating something new. Strong agency disincentive. The whole idea of affordability by splitting the price of an expensive asset over many units ... is really about stranding the asset. Sell it at a high price to the token holders, make a spread .... market making the illiquid tokens, consolidate the tokens back later at illiquid (low) prices, take back the asset. A scam. Different PoV. SD

What are you trying to hedge against? For most passive portfolios, if it's a 30% drop in the market; either be a little more active, sell covered calls, roll puts on the relevant index, or sell down and put the funds into a money market fund. Tell yourself it's your next 2 years of living costs money, change your mind later. If it's an active and concentrated portfolio; just sell up to 50% of the vulnerable positions .... and buy back later. These portfolios make their money from change in share price (volatility), so use the opportunity ... don't destroy it. Of course, if you're happy with earning less from your side hustle .... SD

Grab the opportunity by the balls, and squeeze. Just keep in mind that it's a limited time engagement; probably a solid two years ... after that, 'life' will primarily be doing the deciding! Couple of takeaways, from London (UK)/Calgary ... Push the acceptable, always seek out the colourful 5%. There is a lot more tolerance when you're young, that 5% were 'you' some years ago, and their life experiences are always 'illuminating'. Provocatively call bluffs, call aggressively, and call early. The polite "I'm not from these here parts, you folks all sure talk 'funny'"" . For the best experience; strategically call the kettle black, right off the bat. Demonstrate a cocky willingness to learn, and cheerfully accept the knocks along the way. The "how hard can it possible be to ride a horse, and rope/tie up a calf in X seconds" ... from someone who has never ridden a horse, or roped a calf . You're expected to f*** ** ... everything is up from there! You are the master, not the environment. Thoroughly enjoy, go balls to the wall, but always have a plan, stick with it, and call the shots; the environment will change you, it is toxic, and you want to be able to eventually walk away with no regrets. London/New York is not the centre of the world. That famous 'attitude' may work well in a London/New York, but you're the arsehole everywhere else. Nobody likes an arsehole. Enjoy. SD