SharperDingaan

Way back in the day I apprenticed in the dark arts under two masters; one a middle easterner who was a magician with numbers, the other an escapee from the former soviet block who was truly a 'one of a kind' . Both very energetic and robust men, and in fine health ... despite one of them having a withered leg. Both of them had lost family, relatives weren't really interested in their skills ... and I was the pet project. All of this while in Europe, changing nationalities, and before arriving in Canada. Thereafter, a very boring time learning how to do things honestly! Entirely on my own, while going through uni. Both lived for the day, and a today a lot better than yesterday. Friends and community worth more than money. Each had more lives than a cat, and was disease free well into their 60's. One got accidentally shot dead on a NY subway, by a hood aiming at someone else. The other eventually passed away with dementia. Live life to the fullest whilst you can, push the envelopes hard, and piss on regrets! You could be gone tommorrow, but until then ... a life well lived. Doesn't hurt to find an apprentice either .... the more arrogant and bloody minded the better SD

Great choice of video! For all those 'helpers' ... Master of the house, Les Miserables SD

There is a need to hype the market for those IPOs that follow, and ensure that price doesn't fall below the underwriters guarantee for the two week period following launch day. Intentionally underprice the IPO so that it pops 30%+ on issue day. Apply the marketing engine to drive price up 100% within the two weeks following. Creation of an options market to sell puts to investors, and calls to speculators. Not their problem if investors don't address their elevated risk, whether it is via the stock itself, the indices that are forced to buy it, or the options market. Of course, if a Spacex launcher now explodes on the pad .... it is 'kaboom' in more ways than one. So .... no launches for the next few weeks ... and 'controlled video'. There are ways around the indices problem. Back in the day we had Nortel, and later RIM, doing the same thing. Shitty way of doing business, but one can either vent, or use the opportunity. Just keep the greed in check, and ensure that you engage a mechanism by which to keep the funny money. Most will not, and piss it away .... believing they are invincible. Another opportunity to harvest. SD

Assume 1% of the total raise .... an awful lot of bribe money spread about, and the largest commission of the entire year. But ... it has to be successfull. SD

+1 The only reason we're punting on SpaceX is because we're sure we can rely on the greed. A great deal of money rests on this historic trillion dollar IPO not only doing well, but also closing the day at well above the issue price. A material bump that also bumps the indices, and opens the way for those lined up behind it .... and the fees that come with it. Heaven and earth moved to ensure that nothing threatens it. The GFC demonstrated that excessive fee income corrupted the judgement of rating agencies and associated analysts. We would expect that the same thing is happening here. SD

Hard to complain, as we used it to close out a swing trade, ahead of an ex-date on the 15th. Markets may not be rational at times, but it doesn't mean that the investor has to be irrational as well. The value is in calling the bluff; not for everyone. SD

We've been exploiting this for a long time ... sentiment trading Key point is that it has nothing to do with the performance of the underlying company. It's all about changing the supply/demand on the share float, by changing the story lines ... via media manipulation. A CFA produces a (biased) report, a non-CFA content creator rewrites/hypes the conclusion (circumventing ethical restrictions), and publishes on an amplifying media platform. Trump, crypto, oi/gas, yada, yada ..... FFH never reaches a P/BV of 1.5 ... 'cause it's too complicated, etc Opportunity, as the solution is buy backs, and/or a suitably priced Baby F putting a floor under the P/BV . BTC at USD 65K (down 40%+) and going lower, 'cause money is flowing to the SpaceX IPO. Help yourself! .... cause some of it will flow back after the SpaceX gain, and a material win will very likely make those casino winners a lot less price sensitive. Bunnies. WTI going to USD 100 based on tweets/posts, and the weeks published US inventory draw. Then back to USD 90 by Monday after the week-end market closure, and the nth post that the SOH is now open. No real change, but 5-10% price changes in each direction ... every week. Dividends are extra. All of it contributing to harvestable volatility, feeding back into the media amplification loop. Of course, against the day it breaks (as it will) .... we have lottery tickets SD

Just to add to this, and throw out something for the masters to consider .... One of the biggest knocks against FFH is the lack of a reasonable dividend. Sure ... nothing prevents an investor from making their own (sell shares, sell covered calls, swing trade, etc.) .... but it requires active management. Not what many who would like to hold FFH, want to do. If you need a 4-5% dividend income on the capital, to pay living expenses, you can't hold FFH. 1M invested in FFH vs 50K/year of dividends is not a competitive alternative. Simply raising the annual FFH dividend is also counter productive, as it just raises the incentive to swing trade around the record date. Berkshire has the Baby B. Little prevents FFH from creating a Baby F that pays a 5% dividend, particularly when the respective share counts do not have to be the same. Widen the investor base, and benefit from better metrics. All in a days work ...... SD

Have to think that BTC drops another 10%+ the closer we get to the SpaceX IPO; nothing to do with BTC itself; simply demand being diverted to new shiny toys . Opportunities. SD

Keep in mind that a great many of the FFH equity investments are underpriced simply because of the US situation. Great companies, but few willing to pay full price, creating buying opportunities. It is quite obvious that Canada is going into an extended period of massive infrastructure expansion. FFH will have a seat at the table, they have a lot of capital, and the people in the seat are amongst the best there are. Given that FFH shares are liquid, there are few better vehicles. It really comes down to investment approach. A self directed RRIF jammed with FFH is probably going to do a lot better than an annuity, but is not for everyone. SD

Ever the heretic ..... There is little doubt that over the long term (10+ years), FFH is a very desirable place to be; most so when you are forced to step back at age 71 (RRIF) for the rest of your days. But lumpy returns are part of it, along with NOT systematically swing trading the opportunities. Passive management. Then there's the run up until 71 ... aggressive active management, to build sizeable positions, cheap, in the future up and comers . The what FFH was doing 30 years ago; so not surprising that FFH is also often invested in many of the same names. The big difference is the allocation of harvested proceeds; FFH for estate purposes, dividend payers for cash flow. When you go passive, the reliability of that long term CAGR matters; a double in 6 years means > 12%, before dividends. When you go active, it's the size of the share count at 71; multiples of 5 digit quantities requires skill/luck/expertise. Then there's the lottery; always a possibility, never expected, but Lenny .... should it ever pay out! We're just a little more radical around the range of tickets SD

Way back in the day I used to do stress test scenarios around bank capital ... with the intent of failing the (Sched-1, Sched 2) bank. The issues were always that the scenario will never happen (denial), if it does .... others will be in worse shape than us (too big to fail), correlations failing to hold and going to 1 (we're all f****d). Basically, could the bank survive until the weekend (5 days), when a central bank bail-out could be implemented. Typical scenario. The 'big one' happens tomorrow; a good chunk of tidal BC falls into the ocean (Vancouver, Victoria, etc), tsunamis reach into the BC interior, infrastructure likely out for months. Force majeure declarations everywhere, equity sell offs across the board, capital raises restricted, yada, yada, yada. Tail risk that the bank needs to survive. SD

Just some random thoughts. Most of us acknowledge global warming ... but not the change in the distribution of the water cycle. We assume more water in evaporation, falling back as more/heavier rains, in the same catchment basins; yet geology shows otherwise; rivers routinely change course, previous grassland/forests become deserts (Sahara), etc. Hence, is the long-term dollar better invested in new/upgraded infrastructure where climate change rain is now falling?, or in ownership rights over water in current areas? I.E: Is the investment premise one of asset building, or asset stripping. Asset building could be everything from higher sea walls to save cities from flooding, through to new dams in those places now benefiting. Is the better instrument reinsurance or direct investment (Markel, or FFH India)? Liquidity, scale, expertise, experience all additional issues. Enforceable? It's water, people die if they can't drink, and will do whatever necessary to avoid dying of thirst. The middle east evidences daily, that all the guns in the world can't change that. Your rights get expropriated by those bigger than you. SD

Nah .... we're just ensuring that we have the tail risks covered Low probability, high impact events, cheap to maintain; but Lenny ...... if it comes to pass ..... despite best efforts, a tax bill greater than the last decade of salary and bonus combined. Shitty way to make a buck, but this is Trump, and no different to any other dictator. He'd appreciate it! SD

1963 assassination of John F Kennedy, the US president at the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_John_F._Kennedy No more Trump, no more tweets, no more disruption, no more MAGA, yada, yada ..... in an instant. US indices drop violently, then rebound quickly to well above previous levels ..... as the world processes the implications. Celebrations in the worlds streets, and global market contagion, feeding back into the rebound. The very normal reaction when dictators are deposed. Might be less celebration in the US (Home Land Security/ICE presence) .... but not in the rest of the world. Black Swan punchcard opportunity. SD

The US going to sh1te is not a bad forecast; but the reality is that we can only proactively react. The long straddle, the swing trade, BTC, etc. Tools that are worth mastering. There is no point to 'winning', if after the fact ... you are forced to live in a shit environment. Mastering BTC is about ability to move wealth around the world, despite capital controls imposed by central banks. Anxiety is one thing, but turning it to advantage puts it back under your control ..... not venting. The vehicle is ability to make volatility your friend. We aren't fans of Orange Boy, but his disruption has been very profitable. Punchcard opportunity, particularly if there is a Kennedy moment tomorrow. Best of luck SD

Dependent upon your timeline ... https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-newfoundland-development-offshore-natural-gas-reserves/ SD

No big deal. That said, take a look at the attachment ... 10.1M (36%) of the total issued and outstanding is private, with roughly 90% held by one party. Do you own DD. SD Announcement Press Release (InPlay - NCIB) [FINAL].pdf

Take a look at some of our CAD favourites, especially those with production in/around around the Peace River and Clearwater formations, and those with very low share counts . Most all of them have materially raised budgets, with significant new production that will come on stream Q4 2026. At USD 80/bbl ... a LOT of new FCF. At 63M shares, a div of 1c/month is only 7.6M .... or $2/share at a 6% yield. At 31M shares ... only 3.8M. 80M in NEW FCF is not going to be a stretch for either of these companies. At a 50% payout and 6% div yield .... price per share bumps of $10.50 (80x0.5/7.6)x2, through $21.00 .... or 100%+. One of them already pays a 9c/month dividend SD

Hell of a difference between owning the beat-up underlying, and an option on the beat-up underlying. Own, and you need someone to buy you out at a higher price. The foreigner will always be at a disadvantage, is typically reliant upon an domestic 'approved' buyer, and will often have to pay that buyer a 'fee' for the liquidity window. More modest gain, divided over a much higher base cost, producing a lower return; hopefully worth the risks incurred. Options rely on the exchange enforcing cash settlement, on the maturity date. Fewer disadvantages, leveraged modest gain, divided over a much lower base cost, producing a higher return; hopefully more and bigger wins that losses, rewarding for the risks incurred. Quite a bit different though if you enter as a local when the foreign economy is sh1te, build during the trough, and sell when the economy is 'hot' again. Usually, the more that you look like a local, can speak the local languages, take the long view, and are culturally mindful (i.e. it's better that locals run the business) ... the better you will do. Hence, much harder to execute from the US than it would otherwise be from a Canada, Asia, etc. Just not the american way. SD

So many bunnies ... and so little time SD

It would seem that the only way Orange Boy intends to leave, is in a box, via a blaze of glory. Have to think that the payoff, via a straddle on his sudden departure, is getting closer. Such is life. SD

China. Western reporting measures flow as the change in total SPR. Sell X barrels at high prices, replace with the same X barrels of discounted Iranian and Russian crude, at the same time ...... and there was no activity . Of course .... Higher prices. Relative to the pre war price, USD 85-90 is about the right price net of existing damage. Futures indicate that it lasts for a lot longer than many had hoped. Inventory IS depleting, but we're some way from the USD 150-200 barrel. When China starts jumping up and down ... then it'll be time to believe it. SD

But there's also all those billions in US duties illegally collected ... that are now being refunded. Not much chance of ending anytime soon, so long as the refunds are buying mid-term votes SD

It's not just this speech ...... Also a new partnership with the US that makes America great again. Independent and sovereign approach, not an automatic what the US demands, when it demands it. Trade difficulties limited to the current administration and its fixation on only win-lose outcomes; not the American people. Canada is growing up. The CUSMA review sets up a three-way choice for each country to make in July. They can renew the deal for another 16 years, withdraw from it or signal both non-renewal and non-withdrawal — which would trigger an annual review that could keep negotiations going for up to a decade. All good, and long overdue. SD