Cod Liver Oil

Is MSFT a SaaS company? It is trading like one.

Management seems savantish when it comes to IP development but retarded regarding basic capitalist behavior.

Bought some PDD at 80. It’s loathed but the b/s looks like a loaded gun. And more Nintendo. The park in Orlando is doing well and expanding soon. $15bn cash plus Pokemon plus Mario is a thing of beauty even though management is on the spectrum.

@gfp does Coupang make you throw up a little bit in the back of your throat?

@Paarslaars Sometimes the more instinctive analysis on short term stuff is better than the grinding granular hyper rational analysis we do when we make large commitments.

UMG

Shorting is a tragic endeavor.

Long Nintendo is probably short semis.

@Spekulatius you are right but I can't stand the perversity of the Prosus set up with them selling a GOAT and creating a massive overhang, in order to build a shitty venture fund, create jobs for themselves and argue "Math." Simplicity, even with the risk of circumcision, is better than a janky Rube Goldberg sex doll. I know you, @Luke and @MMM20 legitimately disagree. TME is also cheap.

In a few accounts, I am creating an ETF of the greatest companies in the world so I am adding to Tencent even though they can circumcise the VIE without anesthesia or prior warning.

Sold CSCO $117 Added NTDOY $10.80 Added TCEHY $59 CPNG also looks egregiously cheap.

I see a bubble in memory and possibly chips, a boom in the Goog stack and a bust in SaaS. Hard to generalize. Lots of cheap stuff, lots of macro risk.

Best news I have heard this week!!!!!!

Bought a bunch of sod to make a soccer field and an equivalent amount of Nintendo. I may have to water the former with the tears of the kingdom.

I hate to sell stuff but got lucky with Sphere and sold it to buy more of my favorite Japanese game company which has languished.

Hubris.

@frommi I think a lot about the length of the runway not just annual returns. Holding a stock forever and letting the compounding machine do its miracle for your lifetime is the holy grail of wealth creation. It's hard to estimate runways but right now I see long ones for Nintendo, Joe, Fairfax, Berkshire and the Knicks. If they underperform occasionally, I'm ok with that. Visible runway length for SaaS companies seems to have shortened. Please add your favorite runway stocks here.

I'm so sick of saying this: more Nintendo.

If you can sleep with the China risk, Tencent/Prosus is sexcellent.

Bought some SE at 80. It has been decapitated but is growing like a weed. I like Forrest Gump: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-good-company-with-nicolai-tangen/id1614211565?i=1000732240782 I will occasionally partake of a busted growth stock. The vol can be tremendous.

Has anyone been to Porto, Portugal? Was thinking about bring the kids there this summer to surf for a week.

I hate all this SOTP stuff but I added to Exor today at an ath discount to NAV. Even though owning a Ferrari in the Middle East right now looks pretty bad, Ferrari the stock looks attractive and Stellantis is becoming a rounding error. I'm betting on the failson. Tencent, a GOAT, seems like a single digit multiple if you count the investment portfolio. I bought some Prosus in honor of Luke @MMM20 and Luke @Luke Lots of stuff getting repriced.

@giulio yes, UMG is orphaned. Ackman and Bollore left the board, growth problems, technical overhang from Bollore reorg., fear of Suno etc..... but it's still a solid business. There are no natural buyers for this security, it is stranded in Amsterdam, everyone is underwater, no sponsors. We own Bollore and Odet in decent size.

hey @Castanza I have found that buying stuff while holding nose usually ends well. Separately, to test out @MMM20's thesis that V has an >80% chance of outperforming Nintendo over a 5 year period, I bought some V at 311 and NTDOY at 13.75 on March 9, 2026. Please check back occasionally to see who is more foolish.

Adding to Sony and Nintendo despite tariffs, Hormuz, rockets and yenz.