Cod Liver Oil

Starter in Sony and more Nintendo. As @nwoodman has said there is a little too much consensus on Nintendo, but I don't think that matters.

Sold Para for a trade but am getting interested in buying Sony. I like the music and gaming divisions. It's not Nintendo but solid at 15 times earnings. Big, high quality, conservative Japanese monster. Loeb went at it twice: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/sony-rejects-break-up-plans-activist-investor-daniel-loeb-1240274/

More MSGS. Could be a long wait but franchise values are increasing. Happy see progress at E, the other side of the same coin.

Fairfax India. It is an imperfect vehicle, but a cheap way to own Indian infrastructure, participate in privatization and ride the growth curve.

Ackman and Watsa have both hit home runs in the last decade with black swan hedges. One may argue that their success gave them brain damage but what is the optimal way to do this right now? Obvious tail risks now are inflation, doddering and insane world leaders, nuclear war and the thousand things just outside our peripheral vision. I am by no means a doomster, but I wouldn't mind buying some insurance at this weird juncture in history.

More Nintendo. Now have an egregious amount. They probably named a conference room after me by now. We own the locals and the ADR. Is anyone hedging the yen?

@Gregmal I actually like the waiting for the balance sheet geyser to erupt. Let’s see if Nintendo can explode from all the value building pressure!!!!

Bought a few shares of PARA for amusement only and added to PM because ZYN is going parabolic and IQOS will probably be ok. Can someone tell me if Tucker Carlson is being paid?

@John Hjorth you seem like a pretty chill Dane. Do you own any Chinese companies or are you not entertained? I am not interested in the political stuff, only the returns.

I put 5% each in PM and MMM. Ill probably sell some calls against the growthier names and let the toxic stuff continue to outgas dividends.

Does it make sense to sell calls against the portfolio in the non-taxable foundation accounts as a way to increase yield?

Capitalists, I am running a couple of non-taxable foundation accounts which need to give away 5% of assets pa.. 90% of the funds are invested the same ideas as our taxable accounts but I would like to put 10%-20% in dividend oriented investments. If you have any solid yield ideas, I would love to hear them. I am well aware that more money has been lost in the pursuit of yield than at the point of a gun so I may be slightly paranoid. Thank you! Currently looking at PM, MMM, BNS.TO, Pernod, Remy , CLPR, DEO, Kering, TESB.BR, NEN.

@ArminvanBuyout Spot and Coupang both have fanatic founder/owner/operators. Both are dominant franchises very hard to disrupt. Both obsessed with the consumer experience. Its unclear in both situations how they will use their platform to achieve real margins so they are (Spot was at $100) priced with some justifiable skepticism. Imo, Ek and Bom will create the levers to tune the platforms to become fcf machines. They have both built remarkable services which have become verbs in consumers lives. If they dont, the downside seems priced in. If they can move the businesses into harvest mode, the stocks will do great. Ek and Bom are unicorn entrepreneurs in their prime who will probably win. I love busted IPOs where the business is getting better but the stock is going nowhere.

Coupang because it reminds me more and more of Spotify at 100.

adding to ebay due to embarrassing cap shrinkage.

Mike, This is a big number!!!! Can you post a link to the cost? I am confused about our immigration policies. Do we have any? What is the rationale?

adding to Odet.

Yes, yes, yes this is a very good heuristic. If you are using a microscope, you are in the wrong profession. For instance, it seems obvious that Nintendo, Joe, FRPH and Alphabet will grow nicely over the next 5 years and the stocks should do ok.

Adding to eBay then going to the gym to decide how to size it. Seems unreasonably cheap at 40.

Thank you to Sanjeev to putting together this unique community. I enjoy it every day. If anyone is in West Palm Beach over the New Year, I would be happy to grab a coffee at Pumphouse and talk shop. https://pumphousecoffee.com/

2024 will be an interesting year for Nintendo with a new console, GaaS growth and IP expansion. The yen will probably add some tailwind to the volatility. As Nike suffers, MSGE will benefit as people continue to shift spending toward experiences. Dolan will probably start to re-merge S, E and Sphere opportunistically and get a mark on a minority interest in the Knicks. Joe will continue to win. Ebay and Paypal will throw in the towel and be acquired.

@Jaygo this comment has made a big impression on me. It is a mental model closely related to "shooting fish in a barrel after the water has run out." Nintendo and JOE meet the "dumb as a bag of hammers" test to me. I don't think you need to be pathologically contrarian to appreciate them. I am training myself to appreciate the obvious a little more.

Munger already called it out: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-says-investors-own-222016544.html spoiler alert: GOOG

My predictions: The Knicks will be worth more. (MSGS) There will be more time for humanoids to play Nintendo. (NTDOY) Sex will become a quaint pastime (HTL). I think we should resurrect Byron Wien's annual surprising predictions.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-elon-musks-age-of-abundance-means-for-the-future-of-capitalism-7c0807df?mod=hp_lead_pos1 The cultural and economic implications are huge. Musk thinks we will live in an abundant world except for unique pieces of art and real estate. I think the trophy asset aspect of this POV is the only thing that is actionable to prepare for the nootropic and fully automated new world where we are all autistic software.