scorpioncapital

And who has the lowest price of compute or will have it?

I noticed several days last month and this month that the semis go down while the saas and hyperscalers go up..it seems already the market sees the see-saw nature of this dynamic.

I wonder if Greg learned something and taking some lessons from the Japanese conglomerate houses which also have these interlocked conglomerate structures? I mean Alphabet is a conglomerate and now Brk owns part of that.

I doubt those folks will have money for long with that attitude. I mean holding cash is a road to the poor house eventually with all this inflation.

Sorry I was wrong, apparently the quote was about wired funds: " "As Treasury who carries out the sanctions we can see is we are now seeing the rats fleeing the ship because we can see millions, tens of millions of dollars being wired out of the country, snuck out of the country by the Iranian leadership," Bessent said in an interview with Newsmax. "So they are abandoning ship, and we are seeing it come into banks and financial institutions all over the world," the Treasury Secretary added." But I'm shocked Iranian elites and leaders have access to wire and bank accounts abroad. As for the crypto, it really makes one wonder if it is so confiscation proof for the good guys, it must be for the bad guys. I wonder if this will cause regulatory issues. Will the world allow bitcoin to exist in the hands of really nefarious actors? It seems even more confiscation proof than gold. you can bomb a gold bunker, can't really steal a btc seed so easily.

I don't know if this is an appropriate 'method' but what I do is take the average return for the SP500 and for cash, then I look at my portfolio and see what returns I have gotten above or below. If it is way above, I cut down on the assumption that excess returns are precisely hard to achieve because of tail events, among other issues like poor stock selection skill. If it is way below , I look to see if I have things like cash, gold, real world assets that could be useful in a crisis and tend to keep those. Although lately I would say most people are above the index. If you hold only the index, then I would shift the analysis to the % held in the index vs held in cash/gold/bitcoin. Risk is an invisible variable. That is precisely why people have very little patience with it - as they cannot see it immediately. Good investors probably hedge by purposely seeking uncorrelated or low return assets that preserve more than gain from the risks of this 'invisible tail-risk' hand which just can't be seen for long stretches. It then pounces just when you get overconfident lol.

I read a while back Bessent saying the regime was fleeing like rats and that they were seeing crypto movements abroad..I wonder if this is the mined Bitcoin..he also said it would be recovered and the regime wouldn't get to keep the crypto..I wonder how they can do that ?

Doesn't cash come from work, business? So it enters the pool of investable savings via creation of value by people's entrepreneurial and sales activity? But I guess because we have fractional reserve banking, it is not zero sum, someone's earnings are real gains somehow and the cash supply can expand to accommodate that. I never really understood how people getting paid somehow if the money supply expands only by inflation yet money can still be created. It's probably something to do with fractional reserve banking.

What competitive advantage does Berkshire have to grow/match the SP500? Cash is not really an advantage, cash is trash, everyone has it, otherwise they'd have nothing to invest. If you mean they are not 'fully invested' for decades, well anyone can also choose to have a 60-40 portfolio.

One of the greatest determinants of return (besides good luck) for any investor, including Berkshire is knowing when to run-off a business that is weak or is in structural decline or that technology is disintermediating and then repositioning that cash into the growth sectors. Philip Fischer was a big influence on Buffett and Munger because he espoused the idea of not just going for Ben Graham value style situations that may have a one-time pop but true growth stocks that can grow for a generation.. Brk has been around for 2-3 generations so you can't expect even some growth picks to keep up. That is why I really am interested to see if they invest in AI in a bear market. There are also assets that are 'forever' like real world energy infrastructure , but those tend to be slow growing and capital intensive and if it wasn't for the float leverage, I doubt it would be a good business to show 20% cagr over the years.

The stock has underperformed SP500 for 10 years. Abel says no dividend either. Is the Board doing things in the best interests? Is Abel really Able? All questions we don't know the answers to. Buffett didn't do very well the last decade either although the under performance was not huge it was somewhat significant. Does Brk have a purpose or mission? Should it be disbanded? Just sitting on a pile of cash is great if you are a truly great investor but if you're aiming for average, does it make sense not to allow individual investors to choose how to invest ? My concern is that Brk has a good CEO now but does it have a good Investor? Without that, things may crawl forward but we don't know if they can outperform or even match the SP500.

Perhaps, but do you really believe Putin can be in power without significant support from many others around him - and even the people? Look at Hitler in Germany or the Venezuelan guy just got canned. Do you think he could have done it without the tacit support, vote, or at least lack of resistance from the people? A nation , while having terrible leaders, is often in subtle ways supporting that leader in more ways than one. Circumstances can make terrible consensus. Look how they excommunicated or killed all their opposition, those who are left are by tautology 'for the regime' I do agree in the extreme it is possible that a nation like North Korea has totally quashed all dissent, but more times than not there is a mobilization of resources, thought, and community, whether for good or evil. It is sad, but true. Bad situations tend to change the minds of even good people in subtle ways. For example, I met a lady who visited a Western country with lots of homeless on the streets, drug addicts. She was shocked and remarked to me - how can the State allow all these useless people around? They should be killed! Or locked up. Or sent to war. They are useless! This would never be allowed in my country. Well, I was somewhat shocked but is there a kernel of truth? Idk. These nations that have this issue also have very liberal euthanasia laws. Problems are often the same everywhere but they are dealt with in different ways. Some fear to speak the truth, others are more direct, some fight, some use repression. Perhaps all these geopolitical moves are going to improve the world, after the initial trauma. Many nations became very good global citizens after a major disaster. Of course it is better to do it with less killing, less suffering. The 21st century seems to be a century where the right to land and control is determined by productive development, not historical precedent. We can all agree Venezuela was a very inefficient, badly run Socialist nation. We might even agree the same about Russia and Ukraine. But what happens when two very badly run countries are arguing about which of them is better able to improve the situation lol? If you ask me, my money is on past and current success. That is why people look to EU and USA as more likely to help Ukraine develop than Russia. Taiwan and China are interesting because both are relatively successful so is there really a need for a 'change in management'?

Because Putin has nuclear weapons. Russia is by far the most dangerous country after North Korea on the planet, because here you have near-failed states run by mob-like crazy dictators - and with Earth destroying weapons. How do you remove them from power??

Yes you finally got it. Thank God! This is the age of action and initiative, not writing memos. if the EU doesn't want to be conquered by Russia it better do something other than write blog posts. (or in the case of Venezuela, not invite Russia, China, Iran into the Western Hemisphere, run a corrupt narco-state and send drugs to the US). Rubio said it well, the guy went crazy and too far. If you go too far, you will be taken out.

Ironically, this is why I don't invest in Canada. Economic freedom is significantly worse than in the US. And it isn't just about trade, there are many non-trade issues, justice (or injustice based on perspective) systems, and generally I see a lot of cognitive dissonance. Canada overspent over decades, trying to be 'humanist' by central planning when you have not enough money or a business ethic culture or well developed systems that are efficient and productive leads more to Argentinian style poverty than American prosperity. Canada is kicking and screaming that it doesn't want its benefits taken away, despite having brought it upon itself by stagnation , socialism, red tape, complexity. I find it ironic Canada says it wants certainty but if you look at its British common law heritage there is no certainty about anything in law in the country, it's all about fear and interpretation (often by very left leaning judges). Yes, now they say they are getting their butts moving and that it was a great benefit, but only because they were pushed into action, otherwise they'd be happy to keep going as is. And they will never say that it is a huge cost and probably people will wonder why am I paying for this for decades if anything is achieved and taxes will be far higher than they need to be. What allegiance do I owe to it? Maybe I should become a non-resident and let someone else foot the bill of the restructuring? I do not think it will get that far and really all Canada needed to do was follow the lead of the US. Was what they proposed so bad? I do not think a renegotiated agreement will allow for 3rd nation trade as Canada thinks given the NSS and security issues. I also think they will have to pay for Golden Dome via higher gdp spending or an integrated trade agreement. If the agreement is not renewed, it will be a substantial reduction in all economic figures - perhaps like Brexit, maybe worse given the geography, but I think it could be reviewed annually until a clearer picture emerges. People adjust, and they will justify their decisions either way. Does Canada want to be on down or up escalator, that is the question? The entire world rule of law is breaking apart because it is inconsistent and inefficient. I mean just look at tax codes and residency rules, they are a spaghetti code. Crypto is replacing traditional finance and globally. Nobody can live properly under both economic and physical restraint , having to plan every single move as if they're a potential criminal. Too complex, we need better and simpler systems. And I actually think this means more integration not less.