Jump to content


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

0 Neutral

1 Follower

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Existing payment rails are truly sh1te, and work only because we have laarnt how to make them work - patches upon patches, upon patches. CBDC is essentially everyone/everything in the country with an account at the same place, a payment is simply debit account X, credit account Y. Same output; just done very, very differently. Cheaper, faster, more reliable, more secure, yada, yada ... Fixed at 1 diigital fiat ($CAD) = 1 paper fiat ($CAD), there is zero value change. No different to your bank account today, where 'digital/cash conversion' takes place at either the ATM or tellers desk. CBD
  2. Whether digital, or paper, the country fiat will be backed by the CB and freely exchangeable on a 1:1 basis. You will just have 2 accounts - the account at your bank, and the wallet at the CB. Most will pay using their wallet, simply because it is faster, cheaper, and the amounts are guaranteed. Existing payment plumbing rapidly displaced over time. When a vendor can accept CBDC as legal tender, vs sh1te coin, the sh1te coin becomes worthless. Of course, if the market believes the coin has value (BTC, ETH, etc.), the outcome might be different - but what the participants think is irreleva
  3. If you think there are issues, you offer a lower price - alternatively, you add estimated repair to the purchase price. If net of the price adjustment, it still makes economic sense, you either buy it - or walk away. You pay the home inspector for 'piece of mind', not 'guarantees'; 'cause the risk of 'missing something' remains yours. There is a reason for 'cheap', and it comes with its own risks. Nothing wrong in that, so long as you are realistic about the risks and their mitigation. SD
  4. Digital currency. The other name for it is CBDC, for a lot of crypto token it is a game-changer. In many apps, a fiat currency is exchanged for a token that pays for activities within the app - but outside of the app, that token has little/no value. The developer in turn, supposedly used the fiat to develop the app promised in the whitepaper As CBDC is a token, users no longer need buy the app's token to pay for activities, they just pay with CBDC instead. The developer can no longer use seigniorage to pay for development, and the activities move to value-add commodity pricing. The party
  5. 5% average inflation thing: Agreed, all else equal, there is little reason to expect significant inflation. The problem is that economic conditions are NOT equal, this is a 10-yr interval, and inertia dictates 'stay in place for as long as possible'. Someone wants the house? and cannot wait? just outbid everyone else (it's just money you cannot take with you). When they do - that sets the CAGR. Compare your cost of living today, to what it was a year ago - it is a lot higher than the BoC target inflation. There is also a limit as to how long asset and consumer inflation rates can be kept
  6. Keep in mind that the 2M+ forecast is a projection, and as at 2031 (10 yrs out). I think it a little conservative. It is also not an isolated outlier, and price expectations like this are becoming increasingly common. 8.25% is nominal CAGR. If you expect that the average post-Covid inflation over the period turns out to be 5.00%, the real return is 3.25% - and actually not far off the historic trend. The pricing is rational. The houses themselves are 2,500ft+,open-concept, 9ft+ ceilings (20ft+ in the great-room), designer kitchen and washrooms, wide passageways to accommodate wheelch
  7. We have a neighbor who bought their new build townhouse bungalow in 2011 for around 45OK net of upgrades. It is an airy, spacious and desirable house, in a desirable location, the complex has been complete for some time, the target market is retirees 55+, and there is a longstanding waiting list of buyers. Pre Covid, the median house sold for around 900-925K, and took no more than 10-15 days to sell. The neighbor is aging, and wanted to assess whether it was worth staying/renovating, or selling/moving elsewhere. They had an agent approach the buyers and ask for expressions of interest. Th
  8. Some people just hold their disclosures to a higher standard. There is no cherry picking 'after the fact', and no abstention because you don't like the requirement; professionals disclose, others ...... not so much. The underlying thesis might have been entirely wrong, but as long as it was disclosed at the time, it is not on the professional. If a reader chose to buy/sell because of the post, the consequence is entirely on the reader. A great many other posters on this board, are investment professionals, with the same/similar professional obligations that I have. Insult me, you insu
  9. We primarily invest only on the TSX, and own all 5: Drilling: PD for the conservative, ESI for those with higher risk tolerances. Oil/Gas. CVE for the conservative, WCP for those with higher risk tolerances. Wildcard: OBE for for those with both a higher risk tolerance, and a horizon > 1 year. Just be prepared for loathing! SD
  10. Look at the commodities and oil drilling sectors. Viscerally hated by many value investors, as it is not a 'predictable' sector - therefore 'too hard'. The entire world is trying to get out of Covid, and bring their economies back. More activity = more demand for commodities = higher prices. High prices make even the turkeys fly, the well-run players fly even higher. Oil, gas, electricity, base minerals, etc. For most o/g companies a USD 15-20 rise in WTI to USD 75-80, will more than double existing FCF. Overpaying on the existing FCF is just not a big deal. Different strokes. S
  11. The reality is that your favorite is going to be both a dog and a star over the extended holding period. Hence the strategy is really one of hold for the long-term, with trading around the opportunities. And holding an industry (or segment thereof), versus restricting yourself to just one name within it. Luxury is always in demand, and brand matters. At times, Tiffany might be better value than LVMH, Asian brands might be better than European. But if you're always invested in luxury goods ... the individual names really don't matter that much. Large numbers of todays NA retired/reti
  12. You need to be very clear on your time horizon, purpose, and metrics. As at the current price, are you just trying to reduce exposure, raise quality, or do something else? Example: We hold a sizeable weighting in o/g drilling, via PD and ESI. PD is an old position that has been traded back/forth, following an aggressive RS it has a very low share count, and is now owned primarily by institutions. ESI is a new position put on within the last 12 months, following completion of an acquisition; it has a higher share count, but trades < $5 CAD, and is therefore under the investment threshol
  13. The fact is, cyberbullying is a reality, it is long running - and it has long existed on this thread. More than a few folks have been run off this board because of it. We don't need the BS, and have deliberately refrained from ongoing posting in this thread, because of it. As has long been understood, bad behaviour drives out the good. We don't give a sh1t what bullies think; we simply use the opportunity to trade against them. They are not worth the oxygen, and we have better things to do. The other person has issues, that are just not our problem. We could easily just leave, a
  14. Ma held 76% of Ant Financial until recently, and with the recent IPO - is now a multi-billionaire in China. Just exactly HOW does one pull off this trick in a communist country? SD
  15. This thread underlines that culture matters, and that in a large company - it is very much a product of the continuing long tenure of the men/women at the top. When they leave (Buffer, Munger, etc.) the culture leaves with them - momentum may continue for a while, but the new men/women will want to make their mark. Change. Culture and process substitute to a limited degree. A GS is as good as it is, largely because of its market driven internal processes. Up or out, is widely copied by many others, and very successfully. Obviously, it is worth something; but valuation is very subjective,
  • Create New...