What are you buying today?

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s.

BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much.

 

Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock.

 

 

Everybody was buying BABA because Munger was loading up.  No one was really buying META.

 

I learned my lesson a long time ago after trying to buy some things Seth Klarman was buying...so I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

 

Very few were buying FFH back in early 2020 when I was buying...even after Prem announced he was buying $150M, people still were wary.

 

I remember when I was buying BAC in 2008 before Buffett announced...only a handful of us on the COBF were buying BAC.

 

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right!  And don't emulate anyone else...just do your own work and have conviction in your assumptions.  Cheers!

[backtothebeach]

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

No one was really buying META.

 

A ton of people bought META, check out page 312 of this thread...

https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/8494-what-are-you-buying-today/page/312/

 

 

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

[...]

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right! 

 

Admirable that you have the skills, patience and conviction to make that edge work. Tough to do.

Edited April 11, 2023 by backtothebeach

[dealraker]

50 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Everybody was buying BABA because Munger was loading up.  No one was really buying META.

 

I learned my lesson a long time ago after trying to buy some things Seth Klarman was buying...so I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

 

Very few were buying FFH back in early 2020 when I was buying...even after Prem announced he was buying $150M, people still were wary.

 

I remember when I was buying BAC in 2008 before Buffett announced...only a handful of us on the COBF were buying BAC.

 

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right!  And don't emulate anyone else...just do your own work and have conviction in your assumptions.  Cheers!

Meta was a truly unique situation.  A very rare thing that went in many ways extreme, but an easily defined and easily fixable issue.  Zuck got himself under control and it ended immediately.  

[Luke]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Everybody was buying BABA because Munger was loading up.  No one was really buying META.

 

I learned my lesson a long time ago after trying to buy some things Seth Klarman was buying...so I always look for stuff that almost no one wants to touch.

 

Very few were buying FFH back in early 2020 when I was buying...even after Prem announced he was buying $150M, people still were wary.

 

I remember when I was buying BAC in 2008 before Buffett announced...only a handful of us on the COBF were buying BAC.

 

Buy when no one wants it, but make sure you've got the facts right!  And don't emulate anyone else...just do your own work and have conviction in your assumptions.  Cheers!

I bought some Intel when Klarman was buying Intel, he sold after a significant loss...;-) 

 

Props to the rest you said! 

[Luke]

As lots of other folks here i like Nintendo too, i increased my position to 7.5% of my portfolio this morning. I think crossroad capital glamorizes the bull thesis a bit TOO much, but i do agree that this is value and with lots of potential upside. 

[Luke]

8 hours ago, KCLarkin said:

Nintendo reminds me more of Disney around the time of star wars. 

Did Disney trade at almost 8.5x earnings (EV), 30b EV in 2015? Remember, if Nintendo falls 50% this stock will trade at 15b EV, that Marketcap alone will probably justify the movies they make if we look at marios current success...:D Excluding all the other strong segments. Downside looks really fine and upside as well. I am in for the ride. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Luca

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Luca said:

Did Disney trade at almost 8.5x earnings (EV), 30b EV in 2015? Remember, if Nintendo falls 50% this stock will trade at 15b EV, that Marketcap alone will probably justify the movies they make if we look at marios current success...:D Excluding all the other strong segments. Downside looks really fine and upside as well. I am in for the ride. 

No, Disney did NOT trade at a 30bn EV in 2015.  As a matter of fact, the low for the stock that year was $91, although there may have been fewer shares outstanding since it had not bought Fox at that time.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Dinar

[Malmqky]

18 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s.

BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much.

 

Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock.

 

We certainly might be overestimating the upside…but the downside seems pretty limited. Assuming management isn’t lying about the switch, the bear case is extremely weak.

[Sweet]

18 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Quite the cheery consensus on Nintendo here. The last two times I remember such consensus were BABA when Munger first bought and META when it first dropped to the low 200s.

BABA is still in the toilet, and META is back to that level. Keeping buying with conviction like Parsad worked with META, with BABA not so much.

 

Not saying Nintendo will share the same fate, but I get weary when everybody announces buying the same stock.

 

I don’t understand the Nintendo thing either.

 

For me that’s an avoid.

[Spooky]

Started a position in JOE

[Parsad]

21 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

 

A ton of people bought META, check out page 312 of this thread...

https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/8494-what-are-you-buying-today/page/312/

 

 

 

Like 10-12 people.  Half of them stopped buying as the stock plummeted below $100 and most sold out before they broke even.  Cheers!

[Saluki]

Added some VTS on the dip.  (oil is up 2% today, VTS is down 7% on some analyst's downgrade, looks fine to me)

[Luke]

Built a starter in Exor

[Dave86ch]

Added to 9988hk BABA

Added to Bitcoin

[texual]

Adding ATVI regularly and ongoing. Merger should be approved for 95/sh. 

Also, "Our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.47 per common share, payable on May 6, 2021, to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 15, 2021."

Its not much but its something to consider if interested in the arbitrage. Will have more clarity in a few weeks as to the EU/CMA regulators. All signs point to approval. 

[Saluki]

managed to add a little more VTS at the open following yesterday's dip. It was negative at the open for a few minutes before going up and I got lucky  

 

I sold some appreciated BRK in my retirement account and bought the same amount back in my taxable account so I could buy VTS in the retirement account without having to hold it for a year if it shoots up to unreasonable levels.  Someone I met from the board told me he has bought low and sold around $20 twice and bought back again.  I tend to hoard stocks like an old lady collecting commemorative plates, but I think if it was in my retirement account where I don't have to pay short term capital gain taxes, I might be open to the idea of trading in and out of something like this.  

[Luke]

Sold some Meta and added proceeds to Nintendo and Exor

[KJP]

Unit Corporation

[sleepydragon]

Bought CASH

[Spekulatius]

Small add to MTB.

[Valuebo]

On 4/3/2023 at 4:46 PM, Spekulatius said:

NVDA really looks like a bubble, but looking at puts, I need to pay ~$10 for a $200 strike for 10/2023. That's a ~$190 breakeven or down 32% from the current $280 share price.

Looks more like a candidate for straight up shorting but I don't short.

 

You are probably right.

 

In any event I did the same as with my TSLA short a few days after on a drop; sold position for average 15-20% gain and concluded my call options are already hard enough to time, let alone puts. No need for added stress in the ptf. 

[nwoodman]

Picked up some more 7974.T Nintendo

[Luke]

Added to Exor

[throw123]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Added to Exor

why?

[Luke]

21 minutes ago, throw123 said:

why?

I like the business, good management, opportunistic acquisitions, valuable steaks at a discount to NAV, shareholder friendly, promising goals of growth. Do you have a different opinion regarding exor? Let me know.