I think the big risks are the northeast wind that Prem referred to (what is that by the way?), general major catastrophe - say massive earthquake in NY, 5-10% annual inflation that causes reserves to be inadequate, and lousy performance on the investment side. While everyone is cheering for Prem, I remain a skeptic on the investment side. (Tyku/Davos Brands, Shawkei, BDT, Blackberry - none of these were any good, and Eurobank was not exactly a home run.) Their equity and quasi-equity - BDT has massively underperformed S&P while taking much greater risk - Shawkei is clearly quite levered, so is Eurobank, and Tyku/Davos from what I heard, could be a mistake, was never profitable, and without a greater fool - Diageo could have been a zero.