Dinar

This is idiotic. You need to factor in interest rates. 30 Year TIPS yield was north of 4%+inflation in 1990s, today it is around 2%+inflation. Also, CAPE (which is not a Shiller P/E but actually Ben Graham's invention) is a poor indicator if you have massive inflation like we did from 2019 to 2023. Stock market is overvalued when CAPE is 10 if you can buy TIPS at 10%+inflation or Class A real estate in markets with barriers to supply and favorable demographic at say 8% cap rate. It may be cheap at a 25 CAPE if TIPS are at 1%, cap rates are a 4.5%, and cash is yielding inflation+0.

Why wouldn't you move to New Zealand or Italy instead?

Could you please elaborate? (I am personally shocked at the fees that people are willing to pay.) Crappy in what way? Thank you.

St James (STJ LN). Wealth management firm trading at 6x 2029 net income

@Saluki, which companies would benefit from a blue sweep? Infrastructure in my opinion - cement & aggregates and equipment rental, as well as apartment landlords. Why? If VP Harris is elected and can implement her agenda, the massive tax increases (even the childcare cap plan is a massive marginal tax increase on most working parents) will send the economy into a deep recession + high inflation (say 5-10%.) To get out of the recession, stimulus will be applied to build roads, bridges, housing, etc...

Airbus

My accountant told me yes two months ago.

Why don't you donate to Catholic schools that give a great education to inner-city kids for $6K per kid per annum?

Too bad abortion was illegal in the USSR in the 1950s...

@Red Lion. Yes, I am assuming that a) the revenue synergies and cost synergies promised during the take-over and increased over time are achieved b) company can improve operations in the existing business, before taking into account synergies (KCS had OR north of 80 if I am not mistaken). One example is building a second bridge at Laredo for instance. c) tail-winds from volume growth driven by: 1) return of manufacturing from the East to Mexico; 2) shift of truck volumes to rail (would happen faster under VP Harris) due to difficulty recruiting truck drivers and environmental pressures (rail is 3-4x more fuel efficient than trucks). d) tailwinds on the expense side from technology - more frequent drone inspections for instance e) Pricing power - you are a monopoly or duopoly. So raise price at inflation + 0.5% per annum, and that translates into EBIT growth = inflation + 1% per annum. One caveat to remember, replacement cap ex is probably a billion CAD higher per annum than depreciation so reported net income is overstated or exceeds free cash flow, however you want to call that. I think that regardless of who is in the White House, the business will do well. On the one hand, it should do better under Trump as he guts regulation and gets people to invest again and forces more on-shoring. On the other hand, Harris would probably put strong pressure on trucks for environmental reasons so that could be quite helpful. Don't beat yourself too much over CP, I think it has been a lousy investment over the past five years, unless I am mistaken.

No particular reason. Assuming the company delivers on its targets, it is an 8% free cash flow yield to the equity on say 2029 numbers. That's cheap for a business with this kind of pricing power and that should be able to grow volumes beyond 2029.

Yes. They have the best network in NA and the best management team.

Bought CP today and made it a 5% position.

I actually bought CP today.

I think a crucial question is what will happen to catastrophe bonds. If the losses on them are high, you may or may not see a lot of buyers pulling out of that market in January.