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Dinar

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Dinar last won the day on December 16 2023

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  1. Deficit is much bigger now than it was under Trump, not that Trump should have run it. Compare illegal immigration under Trump vs today, night and day. Congratulations on 10% return on an emerging markets debt instruments, not an option for me - 52%+ tax bracket in NYC. Being from an emerging market myself, I would never buy the debt from these places, unless I was being paid inflation +10-15% for long-term paper. Brazil, Mexico & India/Vietnam/Czech Republic/Hungary being possible exceptions. Glad to hear that mReits worked out for you, would not a levered position in Treasury zeroes or TIPS done much better? I did distressed debt for years, so no desire to take interest rate risk - not my skill set.
  2. Well, some of it did. No student loan bailouts, no $100bn for Ukraine to repay Hunter's Burisma payments, no millions of illegals draining the federal, state and local coffers. Oh, and the number of regulations declined.
  3. Why do you say that? What happens if wasteful spending (hundreds of billions in loan cancellations, welfare programs, spending on illegals - their food, medical, legal, housing, jails, $200bn to foreign aid and UN, billions of dollars to places like Harvard that are drowning in cash as it is) is cut? What happens if numerous government regulations that make life miserable for entrepreneurs (latest example - registering all LLCs, Trusts and partnerships - more headaches and expenses for firms) get pared back? You could have a situation where 700bn+ of government waste is cut, Fed cut rates (most of the debt is short term so 100 basis point cut in rates reduces budget deficit by one percentage point of GDP), economy booms as regulations get cut and what do you have? Gov't spending is down a trillion dollars, GDP is up, and budget deficit as a % of GDP = 3% ($800-900bn / 29 trillion on 2025 forecasts.), still too high, yes, but a far cry from 7% today.
  4. Unfortunately 25mm Europeans did not die in WWII. More like 75MM if you count the Russians, Ukrainians, and other Soviet citizens.
  5. Make sure that it is not a PFIC for US tax purposes. Otherwise nightmare unless held in an IRA account.
  6. It is too soon, and the stock is down 10%+ this year.
  7. Why is Fairfax selling 10% of CSB particularly with the stock down 10%? (I think this is owned by FIH, but still)
  8. I do some of the parts analysis. There is a money losing business that the company said it will close. Company has a very fast growing and profitable healthcare business. The company is also buying back stock and has seen insider buying recently.
  9. You want to go to these in person.
  10. I sold most of my position in February after the lousy Q1 results. Unfortunately I kept probably 25% of my position, on which I took a big bath. I follow the company but I am shocked by managerial incompetence. My thesis was management and now it is not clear that they are any good. So no firm view here.
  11. Aimco (AIV) - 4.7% position Ashtead PLC - 4% position Vistry PLC - 3.9% position Caseys General Stores - 4.5% position Dior - 5% position Coca Cola Consolidated (COKE) - 4.5% position CRH - 8% position Fairfax International (FRFHF) - 9% position GE Aerospace - 4% position St JOE (joe) - 10.5% position KSB AG - 4% position L'Oreal - 5.5% position Monarch Cement - 4% position MSGE - 4% position New England Realty - 13% position Progressive Insurance (PGR) - 5% position Philip Morris International - 7% position Safran - 5% position Transdigm - 4.5% position Tel-Aviv Stock exchange = 9% position Yellow Corp = 1% position
  12. It has been the law of the land in the US for decades that you had to register for selective service = the draft when you turned 18. I did it 30 years ago and I was not a citizen at the time.
  13. Yeah, knowing when to stop is important - just saw a film about Napoleon. 700MM USD would be enough for me, that way I can fly by private jet and not stand in line for 50 minutes because the airline has delayed boarding. Where in Germany are you Luca? I am visiting one of your neighbors. I am frankly shocked that in a high end restaurant in a European capital, 90% of the clients were foreigners (Chinese, Russian speakers, Americans and even a French couple - why would French people go to a good restaurant outside of France is a mystery to me, the value proposition is not there for them.) This is a wealthy country.
  14. My two biggest regrets are starting to have kids too late (39 for number one and 44 for number 3), and I always wanted four. I also feel too old sometimes to play soccer against my son and his friends, would not have been a problem ten years ago. The second regret is abdicating my exercise regimen a decade ago, and letting weight balloon. Now it is a huge fight to stay at same level and start loosing it.
  15. You are right, but the question is what is priced in? One can plausibly argue that Fairfax will earn its market cap over the next five to six years, so it seems to me that the market is pricing in some softness in the reinsurance space.
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