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KJP

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  1. The research that I have seen to date suggests that at least Pfizer and Moderna significantly reduce asymptomatic cases, which ought to render fewer people infectious. See, e.g., https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/pfizer-vaccine-shows-94-effectiveness-asymptomatic-transmission-covid/story?id=76389615&cid=social_twitter_abcn If that common-sense inference is correct, then there should be fewer cases among those exposed to vaccinated as opposed to unvaccinated people. Here's one study that produces that result:
  2. Here's a podcast specifically about this thread: https://focusedcompounding.libsyn.com/website/ep-304-thoughts-on-10-different-stocks-reits-msgmsgn-and-a-bull-case-for-amazons-stock
  3. Here's an overview of T-Mobile's fixed wireless offering: https://www.lightreading.com/opticalip/four-questions-dogging-t-mobiles-5g-fixed-wireless-ambitions/a/d-id/768606?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT "The offering costs $60 per month, promises download speeds around 100Mbit/s and does not cap customers' monthly usage. The company said it is now offering the service across 30 million households. A third of those locations are in rural areas, and the rest are in suburban and urban areas. The company's target area represents around 24% of all US households." I agree with this take: "There won't be
  4. Since I've been bad-mouthing Stitch Fix, some balance may be in order. Here's a podcast discussing a bullish perspective: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/special-surviving-20-years-stitch-fix-deep-dive-mario/id1526125544?i=1000515864338 This particular bull case is based on changes to Stitch Fix's traditional business model (direct buy, previewing selections before they are mailed) and faith in the company's data science efforts. I'm not sure this particular bull disagrees with much of what I've noted, because he acknowledges that the bull case cannot be derived from historic
  5. In addition to the insurance coverage issue, your contract with your home inspector may have a limitation of liability clause that limits damages to a specific sum, often the amount you paid the inspector. Whether and to what extent those types of clauses are enforceable is a matter of state law. More broadly, those types of clauses can be found in many types of professional services contracts, such as IT support, architecture, etc. In some cases they are negotiable and in some cases not.
  6. You're welcome. I agree that regulation can affect business value and thus should not be off limits. I can't speak for the poster who responded to your original post, but I don't think your first and last sentences were what elicited the response. Rather, it likely was the sentences in between, which could be interpreted as both flippant about an issue some people find very serious and as trying to start a discussion about the merits of the law (a political discussion), rather than its likely impact on BATRA (an investment-related discussion). Needless to say, though, I'm not the arbi
  7. I have found Google, rather than this board, to be a better source of information on questions like this. Without endorsing any view or inviting any discussion on the merits of the law, here are some critiques of it: https://time.com/5950231/georgia-voting-rights-new-law/ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/georgia-s-restrictive-new-voting-law-explained/ar-BB1f0hZK https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2021/03/31/why-we-are-concerned-about-georgias-new-election-law/
  8. Earlier in the thread, a poster stated that he or she is young and healthy, and thus their chance of dying from COVID was roughly 1 in 1 million. Alas, "young" is one of those words that changes its meaning as you age, so I'm not exactly sure how old this poster is. In any event, I'm 40, give or take a few years, so I was curious if I could estimate my chances of dying from COVID, assuming I have no co-morbidities and the healthcare system is functioning normally. I went at it from top-down and bottom-up methods. Here's what I came up with: Top-Down There are about 41.65 million people
  9. I'm curious what you mean: (i) the alleged symptoms don't exist or include arguably non-objective symptoms (e.g., anxiety), (ii) the alleged symptoms exist but there is no causal link between them and past COVID exposure, or (iii) something else?
  10. What is the nationwide amount of annual home sales in years 1-10 implied by your FCF compound annual growth rate? If I've done the math right, you have FCF tripling in 10 years. If I assume that 50% of that growth comes from nominal inflation, then that implies Meritage's units sold will grow by 2.5x or so. Assuming Meritage has a constant industry share, I think that would imply something like 2 - 2.5 million single family homes sold in the US in 2030, based on roughly 1 million single family homes being sold last year. There is a chart of single-family home sales since 1963 reproduc
  11. Constructive criticism. Thank you for the info*. The conclusion relays an impression of an incomplete picture. It's like if a company would describe the effect of currency movements on its balance sheet by focusing on the differential exposure between the components of the liabilities. The valuation 'narrative' of the last few years is based on a low interest rate environment. Rising rates (i'm not saying this will happen; in fact i think (on a weighted basis) this is unlikely to happen, at least for the 'risk-free' part) would trigger a reappreciation of the asset side also. But individua
  12. Could well be. I think they wanted just enough of NFL so that fans need to have prime. Also, interesting to note that if this table is correct, the increase for Thursday night is only from $760M to $1B which is 32% and percentage wise, the smallest increase of any packages. 32% for a decade isn’t really that much. So if anything, it seems that Amazon got a bargain here: https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/nfl-tv-rights-thursday-night-football-amazon-super-bowl-1234933792/ According to press reports, the existing Thursday Night Football contract is heavily underwater. I think that's why it
  13. Yes, that's what I was trying to say, though probably didn't articulate it well. Something like a tax cut (assuming it's not all competed away ) is a permanent increase in the cash flow going to equityholders, but it will not be the source of future compound growth in cash flow. In other works, if in year 1 free cash flow is 1 billion and after taxes of $200 million, and then there is a tax cut such that in year 3 free cash flow is $1.1 billion and taxes are $100 million, I think it would lead you astray to calculate the compound annual growth in cash flow from year 1 to year 3 and use that
  14. Because emissions mandates are not directly related to federal government revenue or spending, I don't think they qualify for the current version of the reconciliation process that was used to bypass the Senate filibuster and enact the Trump tax cuts and the recent Biden stimulus. So, even if all Democrats were on board (and I'm not sure they are), I believe they would have to fundamentally alter the current reconciliation/filibuster rules to pass something like the Clean Future Act, and I do not believe they will do that. The path that I suspect would be open to them under the current rul
  15. I can't tell if you mean that pension flows shouldn't be thought of as operating cash flows (I generally agree) or that they don't in fact flow through operating cash flow in the GAAP statement of cash flows. If you're saying the latter, I'm far from an expert on this, but I'm pretty sure that at least some of them do. Verizon's disclosures say that GAAP pension costs flow through both EBIT and "other" income/expense": In accordance with our accounting policy for pension and other postretirement benefits, operating expenses include service costs associated with pension and other postret
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