What are you buying today?

[lnofeisone]

bought IAT and added to WFC. 

[yesman182]

7 hours ago, dealraker said:

Had a big zero interest whatsoever in buying more EWBC but the quote fall looks beyond rediculous.  Either I'm stupid or the market is.  We will see.  

 

03/13/2023

Buy

7,000  EWBCPopup EAST WEST BANCORP IN @ $51.1938

Well the CFO dropped 400K on shares around the same price. I don't know much about EWBC but I want to read more now that CFO is putting up that kind of money in turbulent times. 

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, dealraker said:

EWBC is in the heat of it- fell 20% today after falling previously.  We will see, time will tell.

 

CATY has been relatively stable.

I think the key question is whether the business model just got upended?    39% of deposits here are non-interest bearing, and average interest rate paid on deposits was 1.11% in Q4.  What happens if people realize that they can now get close to 5% on T-bills?  If interest rates on deposits have to rise by 300 basis points, the bank makes zero profit.    

Normally banks fall because people worry about credit quality, a situation where the insiders have an edge.  This is modeling behavior shift by customers, very hard to predict.  

Also, I find their credit quality to be mediocre.  1.86% of their loans are criticized loans, which in my opinion, is insanely high given the low interest rates they charge on the loans (5-5.5%) and the health of the economy.  What happens in a recession?

Charlie, what am I missing?  You are not a dummy, what siren draws you here? 

Edited March 14, 2023 by Dinar

[dealraker]

7 hours ago, Dinar said:

I think the key question is whether the business model just got upended?    39% of deposits here are non-interest bearing, and average interest rate paid on deposits was 1.11% in Q4.  What happens if people realize that they can now get close to 5% on T-bills?  If interest rates on deposits have to rise by 300 basis points, the bank makes zero profit.    

Normally banks fall because people worry about credit quality, a situation where the insiders have an edge.  This is modeling behavior shift by customers, very hard to predict.  

Also, I find their credit quality to be mediocre.  1.86% of their loans are criticized loans, which in my opinion, is insanely high given the low interest rates they charge on the loans (5-5.5%) and the health of the economy.  What happens in a recession?

Charlie, what am I missing?  You are not a dummy, what siren draws you here? 

I've owned the stock since IPO in 1999 and in the past knew the officers and board personally, not much any more.  The customers of this bank are both loyal and stable. 

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by dealraker

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, Dinar said:

I think the key question is whether the business model just got upended?    39% of deposits here are non-interest bearing, and average interest rate paid on deposits was 1.11% in Q4.  What happens if people realize that they can now get close to 5% on T-bills?  If interest rates on deposits have to rise by 300 basis points, the bank makes zero profit.    

Normally banks fall because people worry about credit quality, a situation where the insiders have an edge.  This is modeling behavior shift by customers, very hard to predict.  

Also, I find their credit quality to be mediocre.  1.86% of their loans are criticized loans, which in my opinion, is insanely high given the low interest rates they charge on the loans (5-5.5%) and the health of the economy.  What happens in a recession?

Charlie, what am I missing?  You are not a dummy, what siren draws you here? 

The same could be said for any other bank. CATY clients are chinese individuals and small business. They have established relationships with most customers. I don’t even think that 1.86% criticized assets is all that high given their focus on small business operating in urban centers.

 

Most of their loans are floating rate, so further interest rate rises should not hurt so much even if they have to raise deposit interest rates  (which they started doing). I do think that their deposit Beta moved closer to one, so further rises interest rates won’t do them much good.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

3% position between TFC and WFC

[Saluki]

Bought some VTS and Fairfax India

 

VTS (both VTS and OXY dropped yesterday to attractive levels, but the drop was much bigger in VTS)

Fairfax India (it's still trading below the self-tender offer and it's still improving. I was tempted with FFH at these prices, but I have a lot of FFH already and this seems like a better bargain, FFIndia 70% of what they believe is NAV vs FFH 1.1x book )

[lnofeisone]

36 minutes ago, Saluki said:

Bought some VTS and Fairfax India

 

VTS (both VTS and OXY dropped yesterday to attractive levels, but the drop was much bigger in VTS)

Fairfax India (it's still trading below the self-tender offer and it's still improving. I was tempted with FFH at these prices, but I have a lot of FFH already and this seems like a better bargain, FFIndia 70% of what they believe is NAV vs FFH 1.1x book )

I have a core VTS position and been trading around it. The volatility is insane. 

[Spekulatius]

New position in $LUV (starting out small).

 

Edit - bought starters in regional bank stocks $PNC and $TFC

Edited March 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Saluki]

12 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I have a core VTS position and been trading around it. The volatility is insane. 

 

Yes, sometimes the bid/ask spread is a couple of cents and balanced b/w buyers and sellers, and on days like yesterday (on no company specific news) it was wide enough to drive a truck through with 5x more asks than bids. 

 

Even OXY was trading yesterday for 5% less than the greatest living investor was buying it for last week.  Fear is a helluva drug!  

[sleepydragon]

26 minutes ago, Saluki said:

 

Yes, sometimes the bid/ask spread is a couple of cents and balanced b/w buyers and sellers, and on days like yesterday (on no company specific news) it was wide enough to drive a truck through with 5x more asks than bids. 

 

Even OXY was trading yesterday for 5% less than the greatest living investor was buying it for last week.  Fear is a helluva drug!  

Yesterday was the last date before the dividend ex date. It was a down day for oil stocks but VTS down a lot more. I suspect there’s some trading involved that’s short term and non fundamental. It’s possible that some fast trading funds want to sell before dividends and get back in after ex date.

[KPO]

CVS @ $75

[Saluki]

Right before the close I added some OXY (still below the Oracle of Omaha's price), and some FFH. 

 

I was on the fence about adding more FFH, but if I was right to be upset about getting squeezed out of ATCO, then when they have 20+ new ships in a couple of years, purchased at 30% cheaper prices than their competitors, it should help Prem and me out  

[Paarslaars]

I was greedy and didn't get my OXY filled, did take a position in TFC @ 32 with proceeds from AGEAS.

 

Now completely out of european banks, I think there is more upside in the U.S.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Paarslaars

[Luke]

Tiny starter in BN, prefer the mothership.

[sleepydragon]

On 3/14/2023 at 6:30 AM, dealraker said:

I've owned the stock since IPO in 1999 and in the past knew the officers and board personally, not much any more.  The customers of this bank are both loyal and stable. 

 

Check out RBB, it’s also a Chinese American focused community bank.

[Eng12345]

SU - down ~7% on no news??

 

Edit - I guess its just tracking WTI to some extent...which leads me to the whole energy commodity spiel and why is oil prices so depressed? It almost seems as if there is some hidden supply

Edited March 15, 2023 by Eng12345

[Castanza]

SU, OXY, BRKb

 

Starter in TPL again

Edited March 15, 2023 by Castanza

[Paarslaars]

16 minutes ago, Castanza said:

SU, OXY, BRKb

Also OXY and BRKb

 

Starting to run out of cash...

Edited March 15, 2023 by Paarslaars

[dipod]

What is going on with these canadian oil producers today??? Screaming buy and there's nothing crazy going on out there.

[Spekulatius]

23 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

SU - down ~7% on no news??

 

Edit - I guess its just tracking WTI to some extent...which leads me to the whole energy commodity spiel and why is oil prices so depressed? It almost seems as if there is some hidden supply

Most E&P / energy companies have disconnected from the weak pricing of WTI recently, which is not something that will continue indefinitely.

[Spooky]

More BAC more BRK

[Blugolds]

Wrote/writing BRK puts

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Blugolds11

[Ulti]

brkb, ctra

[dipod]

SU, USB, and BAC 2025 calls.