Blugolds

Fairfax, yesterday and today, orders filled 1340-1345, pretty good chunks. Lower it goes the happier I am, streets arent red yet.

I think about this also, your social circle also dictates thinking. When you are essentially surrounded by like minded folks that can be dangerous, group think. But the alternative can also mess with you. When literally everyone around you is telling you that YOU are the one who has it wrong, even though you know what you are seeing, it makes you question your own understanding etc. Somehow we have gotten away from the majority of people calling it how they see it. If you cannot criticize policy/action/behavior of BOTH the left and the right, then you arent thinking deep enough IMO. IMO this should be ENCOURAGED rather than labeled as a sellout, rhino etc. Both parties will get some things right and some things wrong, there doesnt have to be this ride or die mentality, its messed up. Its also easier to get swept up in "us" vs "them" with social media and algorithms feeding the perpetuation of whatever you clicked on once, and never providing alternatives, it ensures that once you step over the threshold of one type of thinking, you have to fight and claw your way out. Rational, reasonable thought doesnt get comments, doesnt get clicks or repost so it withers on the vine..the vitriol stuff sells and thus spreads, like a disease.

https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/

I used to do that as well, like a 17 yr old boy on prom night...I've also waited and missed my pitch, now I try to wade into the pool rather than cannonball, once in a while I get lucky and bottom tick, but "I'd rather be mostly right, than precisely wrong" when buying. With names like BRK/FFH Im not worried about being precisely wrong anyway.

Would you keep your current place? Option could be to buy this place to secure it, then down the road or whenever just sell the current place and it becomes a swap. RE totally depends on location, so a good unit in a good location can be very valuable and in some instances provide a super solid return without market volatility. I dont know where you are at but if its something you think is valuable personally and financially with a long term view, its generally a pretty solid way to place a bet.

Notice how Mr Buffett is incredibly generous and quick to offer praise to those who deserve it, and to those who dont, a polite smile and chuckle. "With nothing nice to say, say nothing at all" He gets his point across, without saying a word.

@Saluki these are excellent recommendations, and they seem like common sense for the avg joe. The problem is that you would have to convince a very large group of very wealthy people to vote for change that is not in their best interest. As ideal as this is (and I want to believe) the chances of this happening are slim to none. I'd also repeal Citizens United...although if you set the constraints correctly as you outlined above, that would do a lot to reduce the damage Citizen United was able to do.

I noticed in the past (its been some time now) in the "what are you buying thread) there were times when @boilermaker75 and I were both writing BRK puts. I remember thinking, AHH a likeminded fellow! This is also something that I have done for years (slowed down recently) I thought it made sense if you could write puts at or close to BV (back when P/BV was a more accurate measure). Some years it added up to a nice bonus, nothing that would make me rich, but it was enough for a little vacation. In hindsight I would have been better off if they were assigned, and some were, but I was fine with it. I viewed it as heads I win, tails I dont lose. As mentioned, writing puts on something that I want to own at a lower price is a good way to get paid to wait until assigned at a price you want to own it. Same with Covered calls, Let it go and be fine with it or get paid to wait. I dont consider myself an options trader, just the basics for me and more as just something to do I never consider it an actual difference making strategy. When guys start talking about straddles, strangles, collars, butterflies I know enough to know that Im not experienced, or probably smart enough to use them to any advantage, I dont have the computing power physically or mentally to give myself an advantage against the pros. That was something that surprised me with Robin Hood and meme stock hysteria, suddenly everyone thought they were options experts! I always think of that saying, you should hope that someone's first endeavor is a loser, because if they have success, it can create a false sense of security, and they think they are smarter than they are. Better to be humbled right out of the gate than get more and more brazen and then blow-up bigger sums. My guess is that was the case with a lot of those Robin Hood wallstreetbets option "experts".

+1, its a means to an end for me, I enjoy it yes, just like finding a collector car stashed away in a barn someplace...but if I could be assured a 20% return in perpetuity (as one poster mentioned) without having to ever look at an investment again, I'd take it without hesitation.

First mentioned by Greenspan and later the title of Shillers book, if these meme coins arent the epitome of Irrational Exuberance....I honestly dont know what is. I'm hearing avg joe's talking about Trump Coin in the checkout, I've seen Lyft drivers trading in their car on their phone... A trump coin, a JD vance coin..and now a Melania coin...you cant make this stuff up, this is absolute insanity From Shillers book: "Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases, and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors who, despite doubts about the real value of an investment, are drawn to it partly by envy of others' successes and partly through a gamblers' excitement"

Also important to remember that Buffetts #1 priority is to protect the base, protect the shareholders..hindsight is 20/20 now re covid but at the time you’ll remember that there were daily tally’s and updates regarding fatalities, Ackman was crying on MNSBC telling the gov to shutdown to protect his dad, and they were parking Hospital ships in the NY harbor for extra beds..hindsight says that was a crazy overreaction and everyone should have been buying hand over fist…but AT THE TIME it was anybody’s guess as to how bad this would be and what would be the result, and when we would get control of it, the entire world was in chaos, every country. At least to me, it seems reasonable that someone who’s primary objective is to protect the base, shareholders money and remain the “Fortress” that is BRK would come out of the other side looking like they behaved “too conservatively” that is the luxury we have of coming out the other side relatively unscathed, to be able to say hey, the old man goofed…vs he hit it out of the park and made bank, you’ll probably never be able to say that about BRK, hey they took advantage of the opportunity, took the gamble and it paid off, made the intelligent bet when everyone else (the entire world) predicted doom and gloom and are richer for it. BRK goal is respectable returns while mitigating against significant loss of capital so by its very nature it will never ever make the sexy bet/call and as a shareholder you’ve gotta expect that and be Ok with it. If you’re primary goal is remain the fortress and protect shareholders from extreme loss of capital, it 100% logical that you would behave as Buffett did when the entire world is in chaos, there is no end in sight and it still hasn’t played out as to how bad it will be and how significant the impact will be. He errors on the side of caution and doesn’t swing for the fences if there is even 1% that it will be a detrimental blow to BRK. Didnt know the fed would be as aggressive as it was, it could have also been another GFC or worse and then people would have been saying why was he such a shmuck leaving so much exposure for BRK. Just playing devils advocate here, but it’s easy to forget what the viewpoint AT THE TIME was compared to what we know now and its easy to Monday morning QB that today. Do I wish he would have been a little less conservative and taken advantage of opportunities…yes, but I also understand why he didnt and Im ok with it.

I still come back to this push for “going green” with the last administration, obviously that is probably put on the back burner for now, but the other aspects of needing tremendous amounts of energy are still there. Elon has the ear of POTUS and he is gonna push for more tech in the country (my opinion) and especially if the crypto grifters have anything to do with it, we need tons of energy and the only logical way to produce that cost effective is Nuclear. I dont think I have ever heard nuclear nuclear nuclear being touted as much as I have in the past several months and I think that a good thing for BHE as they have already been in talks about it and were set up and ready to go with plans to produce mini reactors etc in partnership with Gates. BHE is an industry leader, Greg is one of if not the best in the energy space and they have a fat a juicy bankroll for assurances and the ability to move quickly if they get the green light. I still think further down the road 5-10-15 yrs BHE will be the golden goose of BRK that is where I see the most potential, solid stable returns on large amounts of invested capital. Takes a lot of pressure off finding creative ways to invest the money, just run the energy business intelligently, make sure ROIC is decent etc. At least that is a future I can imagine, I struggle imagining a future that looks much like we’ve seen over the past several decades, the culture will remain intact as that is WB primary concern, for shareholders/partners..but finding elephants and getting the call because its WB I dont think continues in the same fashion.

I've never understood the "we cant have their side pack the court, so we'll pack it with our side". If you wanted true balance, wouldn't you want equal representation on the court? Both left and right represented, men, women, minorities, whites...wouldnt that be optimal? I dont think a right packed court or a left packed court is the ideal balance. If there are 9 justices on the court you would think they would want 4 justices always from both left and right, when those positions open, they are filled from their respective "sides" regardless of the administration...then the 9th justice can be appointed based on administration in place when the opening occurs...something like that...would fix this silly behavior of "timing" and trying to pack with your "team". Would never happen because as much as each side hates the opportunity for the "other" side to pack in their favor, they also dont want to give up the ability for them to do it themselves eventually. She is blindfolded because justice is unbiased. Lady Justice holds scales to represent the impartiality of the court’s decisions. Everyone wants Lady Justice to be blindfolded...but the blindfold to be diaphanous.

People sell Whole life insurance policies as "investments" every day too.. "if you sell it, they will come"

True, "young" is subjective, but the challenge is that by the time you have a proven track record managing "real" amounts of money you're probably in that "strange definition of young"!