Blugolds

Obviously dont know who made the ultimate call, Its just very strange to me, he has been pretty vocal about the trouble with investing in airlines over the years, DECADES, he called them a "Death trap for investors" and joked about a visionary present at Kitty Hawk doing the world a huge favor by shooting Orville Wright down" , called them a "bottomless pit, investors attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it" and overall the industry having "very, very low incremental costs per seat, but enormous fixed costs, which leads to a constant competitive temptation to slash prices to fill seats" He was in and out around Covid and even before the pandemic I didnt feel good about it and when they were out, I thought well, good! And now here we are again LOL, back into the airline business, granted a 1% position. The ONLY thing I can figure is that maybe they are thinking that with jet fuel prices higher for longer maybe it will shake out the weak hands ie. Spirit et al. and maybe allow the bigger players to capture more market share or increase margins with less competition? I know he has made positive comments regarding CEOs, but then I come back to previous comments regarding buying business that are so good an idiot could run them, because sooner or later one will. Glad they are deploying capital, just not excited about airlines at all, honestly would have rather they just but that 1% into one of the other positions like Google, but what do I know. Just seems to be counterintuitive to take a hard stance on an industry for decades and then be lured in by the sirens song repeatedly, I dont know if there has been another industry that he has spoken so strongly against for so long come to think of it.

Delta...interesting...cant say that Im excited about airlines...

I think this is the natural progression in investing, at least it was for me. Reading Op's story I couldnt help but think...man that could have been me, and it was, albeit in a lower capacity back in the day. I was young in age and investing acumen, with a bank roll that outsized my experience and understanding, coming off some early sucess (in hindsight, that saying about hoping your first deal is a loser because you learn when it is cheap, but if its a winner you think its easy and dont learn as much etc...I was overconfident...I didnt even know what I didnt know...and the education was expensive lol.

Congrats @Saluki !! Im about 10yrs behind you and have twin 3yr old boys. Outside of having twins, as an "older dad" the first year was hard for me, I was also indifferent to having kids before the fact, could take it or leave it, she felt more strongly and so we tried and got BOGO! The womens body goes through a lot, hormones change and it can take a while for them to return back to normal, this can also affect dad, its a huge life change, throw in a partner that is dealing with hormonal/body changes and a lack of sleep and my entire world turned upside down. I didnt know what to expect but the situation I was in certainly wasnt whatever the heck I had in my mind it would be. It was supposed to be the best thing in the world, and I found myself think, oh no, what have I dont/got myself into. You find your groove, there will be tough times, Im not gonna sugar coat it, exhaustion, tempers, probably the majority attributed to lack of sleep by one or both partners. But I will also tell you that it gets better and better, infants were brutal for me, watching them walk/talk was amazing and now that they are developing into actual little people its the best. Mom and Dad relationship is better than ever and there is literally nothing I'd rather do in this world than spend time as a family. I "get it" now and I can honestly say it's the happiest I've ever been in my life, notice I didnt say the easiest, or the most freedom lol. Its easy to get caught up in trying to survive, get sleep, take care of the kid, mom, yourself, work, juggle everything, but "try" to also pause and enjoy it, that can be easier said than done, and people told me that as well, and honestly at the time I was in survival mode so it didnt register, once we made it out of survival mode, it makes sense, sounds cliche but it does go fast. There has never been a better time for parents to document these early years, you have a camera/cloud in your pocket, you don t have to have it out non stop like an obnoxious tourist, but sometimes I do go back through the pics on my phone by myself and just remember, I love it, so dont forget to take some, none of them are staged, or forced, most candid, mom reading to the boys, boys walking ahead together in the woods, son covered in food, son mid belly laugh, a babies smile, you just forget a lot and Im so grateful to have pics to remember those times, the candid pics, I would rather lose the entire contents of my home, than lose those pics. Congrats again! Caring individuals, responsible citizens, lifelong learners, world needs more of those.

Like sharper said, there is more to it than just turning the dial up to 100%. Logistics, tanks for storage, tank balance, if a refiner has the ability to run higher rate, they likely would already be doing it as they would view anything less as leaving money on the table. Also there are "unsexy" needs for the process that dont translate directly to the bottom line and thus are generally the last to get upgraded but needed none the less for higher rates, rundown cooling, waste water plants for byproducts, coke removal and shipping/storage and this is to say nothing of the increased strain/shortened catalyst life, your projected run shrinks as you run it harder. There is a lot to it. A refinery likes to run just below peak, think of how your car behaves with the cruise on at 60 vs when you floor it wide open for an extended period of time, its fine if you floor it to merge with traffic for 10 sec but you wouldnt take a 500 mile trip with the redline pegged and not expect something to happen, when that happens, units come down and then you lose total production from that unit, and often supporting units for however long the shutdown takes it can end up being a net loss of overall production, running 90% smooth for 12 mo vs WFO for 9 months and down for 3 months. Thats the business, find out where that line is, is it 90% or 91% that yields the most stable operation and maximum production.

Global uncertainty is the highest its been for sure since Covid, new captain at the helm that has indicated that BRK is ready and willing (and has been) buying back, BRK trading at buyback levels and potentially lower, BRK sitting on ~380 in cash, potential for investment opportunities in addition to buybacks...whats not to like here, could get sexy. As a longtime BRK holder and a long runway ahead, either scenario you described would be great.

LIke Parsad I was also trying to give it a chance, there have been series in the past that didnt hook me right away. I remember when THE WIRE came out, I lose interest during the first episode it was slow, so I didnt go back for over a year, tried it again and slugged through it and it ended up being one of the best series I have watched. And to clarify, my feeling was the same within the first 20 min but kept thinking, it cant be this bad, I'll finish the episode, ok second episode maybe it takes a bit for them to find their groove and develop storyline...but alas, its just not there!

Same sentiment, I wanted to like it, was excited it was coming out, as I've stated before Im a self proclaimed western cinema junkie, even in modern form. I shut it off 3/4 of the way through the 2nd episode and wont watch any more, its just so cheesy, horrible writing, horrible, poor acting, the writing and acting is so poor its shocking, they are just trying to milk the franchise and its so bad its shameful I can only guess that they wanted to get it out asap to capitalize on the brand association and perhaps they are spending their real time on the other spin offs, I think they are coming out with a 6666 ranch spin off, so maybe that is consuming all their energy and they just scribbled some quick storyline notes on a bar napkin for the producer and hoped that with enough cliché special forces terminology and gung ho hardcore attitudes it would carry the storyline and distract from its deficiencies in every other area.....watching the show feels like watching a Hegseth press conference

I agree RE is actually priced pretty reasonable IMO, you still have your high demand areas that command a premium, but I think of RE as a sum of the parts, if I purchased land in an area, any area, and then built it myself what would it cost? What is its "Scrap" value if you will. The prices for labor, any contractors I would hire, septic, well, foundation etc have all increased with RE prices, price of materials are all higher than 5 years ago (but below peak covid and supply chain issues, and some tariff related costs etc) concrete has increased quite a bit. So when comparing the purchase of any used home and subtracting the price for a comparable lot or land vs building myself...even with myself doing 90% of the work, the prices are not far off, often its cheaper to buy a used home. I always look at material prices as an indicator and a kind of "floor" for home prices, if there was a great discrepancy in cheap materials and labor (low) vs the used market (high) that would indicate to me that perhaps the used market has some fat to trim. There are other variables, supply, rates etc but this is just a guide I use for my own mental model and Im not seeing it. RE to someone not in tune with the increase in material and labor, just looking at rates and avg mortgage payments might seem high, and they are compared to 5 years ago if that is the only lens, but when taking it as a sum of parts and also accounting for the increase in labor costs as well as materials, they track. The inverse would be circa 2008 when material and labor prices were more constant/steady and we saw homes sitting on market for extended periods, nothing was moving and we could often purchase homes for less than scrap value! I purchased properties that were rentable in their current state for less than I could build for sure and often not much more than I could build the detached garage for! Paying .50 for dollar bills! Currently that spread is much closer, I would estimate .90 on the dollar, there might be a little room for RE to contract but I dont see how that spread could widen significantly without all hell breaking loose and even then it would be buoyed by a lack of supply. People got spoiled by RE prices and low rates for a long time and thought that was the new normal IMO. Def not a bubble. Not a RE "professional" but have always been around RE/construction/labor/materials and follow closely. Just my .02 zinc filled cents.

Par for the course (pun intended)...Literally every winner of the FIFA peace prize has captured the leader of Venezuela...

I often hypothesized about this several years ago when I first heard of autonomous driving, when it becomes well established fact that it is a safer option (I dont think we are there yet) how the insurance industry will adjust as well as laws. Could it get to a point where it is deemed "unsafe" for human control of a vehicle? Reserved only for collector cars etc. Will laws eventually reflect that? Penalties for human operation? Special acceptations for driving non autonomous vehicles similar to collector plates on vehicles now that allow for operation during certain times of the year and must have a separate primary vehicle registered as daily driver... And if laws do not reflect this, do the insurance companies penalize human operation so severally via premiums that it effectively becomes law? ie. current premiums become autonomous rates (benefit ins companies) and policies with human operation stipulation carry a higher premium as penalty? It eventually becomes cost prohibitive to own a non-autonomous vehicle? I find it all very interesting, I like to think about my grandpa that passed away several years ago at 91 and his stories of the model A in his local towns in upstate NY. the drastic changes in vehicles in the last 30 years...from 1931 --early to mid 1980's depending on the manufacturer, vehicles remained largely unchanged, internal combustion, carburetor,, drum to disc brakes, improved steering geometry and control, improved suspension, but if you spend any time in a 1979 F150 (my favorite) or chevy, or even a dodge pickup from the early 1990's (they lagged the other 2 IMO) they were rather primitive. With the introduction of EFI there was a relatively stable period of 10-20 years with some creature comfort changes, things like electronic sunroofs, CD players, heated seats, more emissions stuff, but even a Silverado from circa 2010 is fairly simple outside of their AFM or equivalent cylinder deactivation. Within the last 10 years vehicles have changed drastically IMO, the simpler vehicles are still available in some makes/models but are becoming harder to find outside of very base models such as a corolla. They all have very significant electronic controls, touch screens, VVT, variable geometry turbos, hybrids, full electric options and now autonomous driving. I spent a winter daily driving a 1979 F150 4x4 pickup with a 4spd, I loved the truck but it was work to drive, I enjoy shifting, but the heater barely kept up, drove like a "truck" no anti-lock brakes, had to have your head in the game and although I enjoyed it, there was absolutely nothing comfortable about it. Starting in the morning took several pumps on the carb to get it to pop off, and this was all normal in our lifetimes, I sometimes think about what my boys will think in another 20-40 years, about how we used to "drive" a vehicle, and had to stop to fill up the gas tank etc. Will it all seem so hard to imagine, like those stories from gramps in the model A. If they do get to autonomous normality lets call it, and you can "rent out" your vehicle to uber while you work rather than it sitting in the parking lot, what does that make the value of the vehicle that can produce income while you work/sleep etc. Who owns them? Could it get to point that they are always available and sitting around like those stupid green scooters in every major metropolitan area? Forget the boys being shocked that we "drove" and fille dup with gas, could it get to a point that they are surprised we owned a car? Or multiple vehicles for every driver? Europe already is better for someone who doesnt own a vehicle to get around by a factor of about 100, but could that come to the states, rather than mass public transportation options, does it shift to mass privately owned public transportation? Fun to speculate, and as a self proclaimed gearhead. I am both excited to see what transpires while also remaining nostalgic for the simplicity of years past, while also being cautious about what it will mean for the avg consumer and how they could get screwed. Do the premiums for non autonomous get so high that they are reserved for only the top income class as a status symbol, while also able to be the only ones who can afford to buy said autonomous vehicle that also generates them an acceptable ROI, but the avg joe "should" be happy because it has never been easier to get around and they dont have the maintenance, upkeep, insurance etc to worry about...all those costs (plus a little more) are now baked in to your price-per-ride. Similar to how every complained about $130/mo for cable television and was excited to have options like Hulu/Netflix/Disney etc. for $10/mo only for everyone to just pay several separate subscription fees to equal or exceed the original $130/mo anyway... and then those providers consolidate giving them pricing power and the ability to raise fees etc, you can go without television subs, but its pretty tough to do with transportation. Anyway Im rambling, but this is where my head goes when I start down the rabbit hole trying to predict the future.

I think that may be where we differ...you say Mattis seemed to forget who his commander was...Military members swear an oath to the constitution. Ultimately Mattis "commander" is the document, not whomever happens to be sitting in the chair at Pennsylvania Ave. Obviously neither of these men are of the same pedigree or caliber of Hegseth who defiantly did not climb his way to the top by kissing ass..but I do find it somewhat unprecedented that two very senior military commanders would make such bold claims about a POTUS, this does not warrant even the slightest question in ones mind?

What about Gen Mattis? Would you also describe him as a disgrace to the Armed Forces and a chicken shit coward that climbed his way to the top by kissing ass? He seems to share the same sentiment re Trump as Gen Milley.

Miley has been on their "list" for a while now I'm sure...

Same thought, unremarkable article and borderline lazy. Also some comments he made re “aging shareholder base” and instituting a dividend. Those who have significant wealth in BRK appreciated over decades, including those with him from the beginning will pass on to heirs and I don’t believe they will be in a hurry to sell. Secondly, the div has been brought up previously and has generated a resounding “No” vote from shareholders. The article does nothing but state the obvious to anyone who is even mildly familiar with BRK. Greg isn’t WB, big shoes to fill, no elephants since Apple stake, what is he gonna do to beat the SP500. When you have such a significant phenom like WB, even if he is the GOAT, succession always raises the same criticism and skepticism, we saw the same with Steve Jobs vs Tim Cook “you can’t replace a Steve Jobs, he’s 1 in a million, he’s the GOAT” etc.

Also consider deferred tax liability vs SP500, for those sitting on considerable gains and don’t want/need a divvy, that’s not immaterial

I found the video I love pets/animals as much as the next guy, but I don’t think it’s right to take food from a food bank for an animal that might be used to feed kids or the elderly who are truly needy and hungry, they take priority IMO. I have empathy for those who are in precarious situations due to no fault of their own, and even those who are in situations that you and I would never be in, because they didn’t know any better (I don’t fault people for being stupid because they don’t have the tools in their toolbox, what seems like common sense to you or I, might not be to them if it’s all they’ve ever known). And then part of me also struggles with the idea that, hey, had they been in a different situation, a different lottery ticket at birth, they could have ended up born in the slums in a 3rd world country that would make their current situation seem like luxury, OR they could have been born into a family that has the connections to start a meme coin and make billions, throw up a website that sells sneakers, bibles, cologne, watches etc and because of that never have to worry about money for the rest of their life rather than slugging along on a small military paycheck. And I don’t know how to wrap my head around that really. I always thought (probably influenced by WB and BRK) make your money honestly, never stop learning, work hard and good things happen, and for some that’s the recipe for success, but for many they’re not capable, and for some, they are in a position where the exact opposite is true, in a position such that they don’t have to work hard, the hand they were dealt was so good that they can play it horribly, without personal improvement, without cunning intellectual curiosity, without integrity they create vast wealth. So maybe none of it even matters, maybe it’s all a big joke.

Reminds me, I just saw a clip the other day from a local news down south, talking about Military families in line at the local food bank, they said they didnt know when they were gonna get a check due to the shutdown (before they found out they were gonna get paid) and the lady in line they interviewed talked about uncertainty and “it just helps out a little” but that wasnt what got me, what got me was that the lines are LONG…and this lady, when asked what she liked to get, she said, milk, eggs and cheese when its available, and she also liked the peas and green beans because…..wait for it…her dog loves those!! I couldn’t believe it, imagine a line out the door, you’re desperate enough to be at a food bank with other families with kids..and you are gonna grab some things for your dog… And I agree, I guess what do you expect when, what was it, half of Americans reading and comprehension level is at 6th grade, in a consumerist society, constantly being told via social media drip that you need to overextend to be X (x=pretty, popular, successful etc) with the vast majority receiving little to no basic education in personal finance, a make the minimum monthly payment, everyone else is doing it, I work hard I deserve it etc. It’s a house of cards.

I grew up pretty poor, and that’s probably sugar coating it a little bit. I spent a lot of time with my grandparents, I remember being a kid, maybe kindergarten or a little older and going with my grandpa to the courthouse for something (paperwork) and they had a bin by the front desk full of day old bread, loafs and buns and rolls, I remember seeing it and seeing that it was FREE and telling gramps, hey look FREE BREAD!! And him saying, “that’s for people doing worse than us” and I remember thinking, still to this day 30+ yrs later, man how bad do you have to be doing to get free bread. The sentiment stuck with me. If there is ANY way to avoid taking something then you shouldn’t, because there are people worse off that need it more, it should be a last resort and then only until you can figure something out. Seems like that sentiment has changed a bit, everyone else is doing it so why shouldn’t I also. Struggle is very subjective but it seems like the bar has been lowered over the years. Reminds me of the movie Cinderella man, he was embarrassed to go on the dole and held out until he couldn’t feed his kids, then returned the funds once he had prize money from boxing. I guess that’s more my mindset, it’s there as a safety net not a convenience. The other side of that coin is that you have the richest country in the world, with a very select few obscurely wealthy people spending more on a 2nd yacht than the avg person will make in 300 lifetimes while people go hungry and skip meds with the heat set at 62. I’m all for earning it, carrying your own weight, self sufficiency, but I also think those who have such enormous wealth (and even us too as able) should help out others. Obscene displays of opulence to me is just as cringe as taking the bread at the courthouse after pulling up in a BMW.

Ordered, thank, shouldn’t be any issue shipping to the US correct?

phones dont have Adblock ,but I have a couple on my iPad and MacBook…not a single Ad on COBF for me! if I glance on the phone, its pretty bad.

As someone who spend a portion of his career in the Mayo Health system I can attest to their strive for excellence. It permeates every inch of that institution, they just want to be the best, and it is expected via reputation, but never taken for granted. It is literally their culture. There is a reason that foreign dignitaries travel to a small town in Minnesota for healthcare/treatments when they could literally go anywhere in the world. My point is, when it comes to medical questions, differ to Mayo suggestions/research. When someone makes claims cross reference against Mayo. I could go on in discussion about the lengths that Mayo goes through to conduct research/testing/review etc but the info is out there. Mayo is and always will be my go-to source for actual medical science. As in investing, correlation does not equal causation

There are crazy people among us. What was the political affiliation of the guy who stabbed that poor girl on the train? Does it matter? Probably not he was just a psycho. there are psychos out there who would act out anyway (as evident by the train incident) so you have people who act out with and without political influence. Stab the girl he’s a psycho, stab the girl and she happens to have some affiliation with a political party or a different color skin/religion etc and they want to know exactly what the perp believed. Combine those already present tendencies with the tinder/spark of politics and it’s always gonna be around. Plenty of examples in this country, other countries, human history. combine that with probably the most abrasive president in the countries history, social media algorithms perfected to sow division, MSM doing their part, and it’s very ugly. When you have civil war hashtag trending on social media platforms you’ve got a problem and if any of these jack wagons in Washington want to avoid us going even deeper into trouble they should start to set an example of personal conduct and behavior and ideally work together, although I’m honestly not sure that’s possible, it’s absolute madness how the political landscape has transformed and it’s shameful. And I don’t think either party can claim the high ground here because I think both sides are culpable, and it doesn’t matter who does it more or who started it etc etc the “what abouts” dont matter, the only thing that matters is it’s got to stop before something pops off that has even graver consequences and that’s my hope. All this BS stops, in this country and worldwide. If we spent half the time trying to work together that we do trying to find fault with others, blaming, smearing, competing for power etc, we wouldn’t have 90% of the problems we do, we work harder creating problems than we do trying to fix things and make things work, it’s absolute madness and unfortunately I think, also human nature.

Same, but in my experience the same guys are the ones who were also talking about the meme stocks, day trading penny stocks on an Ap, and if you asked them to give you the ballpark annual return for gold over the last 20-30 years…they couldnt tell you, even if you gave them a +/- % handicap. This doesn’t even take into consideration that they are buying spot + and selling spot - and how that changes returns etc. And those are the guys buying physical, some are buying miners (no DD whatsoever just pick something that they heard the name of) and one guy GOLD. Otherwise they’re just watching the spot every day Fear and FOMO creates buzz (not unlike the meme stocks, there have always been gold bugs, but it’s almost like lately Gold has become the latest meme stocks). Gold is too crowded, que the silver guys “silver actually has MORE utility” they say.. “so I’ve been buying some silver”. It’s like the guys who couldnt afford BTC or thought it was over so they were looking for the next shitcoin or 2nd class crypto…thats silver. Like you said, could just be my circle, but the things Im hearing from coworkers and cohorts are very similar and correlates to the last “hot stock tip” they had. They also think the Fed is the problem and Powell is an idiot for not lowering rates, but couldnt tell you what their dual mandate is

Just a funny observation, anytime there is a shooting, it’s is a “high powered rifle” (as if there are any low powered rifles) and I was convinced that the media only used that term. Then when it was reported that the National Gaurd is carrying their sidearms, with a select few carrying “Long guns” I chuckled. So they do know the difference, but the ended reader reaction dictates the description. I don’t have the answers. For everyone commenting on why this doesn’t happen other places that have gun restrictions, there are also other countries like Finland that issues guns for national defense and they don’t have the issues either. It’s a mental health issue for sure. I have over 2 dozen guns, I work with guys who have gun rooms, collect and for personal enjoyment who have hundreds and hundreds. My grandfather used to bring a gun to school that day in the back of the classroom because he was going hunting after school, when I was in kindergarten I remember our principle brought his double barrel shotgun to our “dress like a cowboy” day and had it broke over his arm walking around all the kids. I’m not against common sense background checks and closing loopholes, but banning semi automatics doesn’t make any sense to me, a Remington 3400 can arguably get off as many shots and do even more damage than an AR .223